Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 7/7/19 — Page 3

The fact that Frozen somehow managed to be up for the week seems like a positive sign for the production going forward. I know we've all been very speculative of Frozen's long term viability. Its grosses have dropped by 35% year over year, making it appear to be another critic-proof juggernaut that is able to build up a massive advance before opening to luke-warm or negative review, and isn't able to sustain itself once that initial advance has been eaten through like Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, The Addams Family, Finding Neverland, and the 2012 Evita revival. It seems to have stabilized itself around $1.2M which although isn't record breaking, I ask you to find a producer who wouldn't be over the moon if they had a production that was able to sustain that level of ticket sales for over a year. If we are looking at what other shows were up week over week, outside of the closing productions, and the newly minted Best Musical, the only productions that were up for the week were the long running tourist draws. This seems to suggest that Frozen, appears to be successfully transitioning to a tourist sustained long runner. We will know for sure come September, but the increase during what is known to be a brutal week, is a positive sign.

Stray thoughts (which might be misguided or wrong):

- The long holiday weekend clearly hurt some shows, although the strong ones did fine. And some shows, especially those appealing to tourists, did better.

- I know some of The Ferryman's strength was driven by the fact that it was closing, but I'm starting to think it may have closed too soon. The Best Play award seemed to give it a real boost. It recouped and ended on a high note, though.

- The contrast between the performance of Beetlejuice and Tootsie is increasingly striking. This week might be a holiday fluke, but Beetlejuice held up fine and Tootsie, which was been drifting down, plummeted. I highly doubt Tootsie will close by Labor Day, but my assumption that it would last about a year may have been optimistic. I didn't think it was a bad show. It's old-fashioned, written in a sitcom style, with a weak overall score, but I had a pleasant time even though the climax is rather lame.

- I don't quite understand the finances of Oklahoma! (as in, how does this show make a profit), but it has been drifting down, offering discounts. It's hardly a disaster, but it's no longer selling out and the fall might be increasingly grim. The fact that it's been playing since last fall somewhere in the New York area probably doesn't help. (I really liked the show, but I'm wondering if they might have been better off closing up shop when originally planned.)

- I don't really see the analogy between Moulin Rouge! and the other film adaptations. I still think it can sell itself as an event. Isn't the biggest problem that it's got to make big money for a while because of the high costs?

- Frankie & Johnny in the Clair de Lune never found an audience. The box office was terrible from the start. There just wasn't any interest. And while I was curious about the play and the actors, the main reason I saw it with my wife and daughter was because it was the best option on a Monday. I thought Burn This was more effectively marketed and had bigger stars. While I liked her performance in the play, I'm wondering if Audra McDonald has to go back to a musical next time she's on Broadway.

BritCrit said: "The demise of Pretty Woman and the rapid downfall of Tootsie both provide some uncomfortable omens for Moulin Rogue. How long will it’s current success last?"

Granted, I don't know what changes they made for the stage adaptation but I think Moulin Rouge is far less problematic than the other two. Or do you just mean because it's a movie adaptation?

DramaTeach said: "This is just my opinion, and people will definitely disagree, but here we go. I do not wish anyone job loss, but on some level I’d like to see Frozen not do well. The additional songs were not good and the lack of artistic merit and creativity was disappointing. Disney needs to step up their game (or realize that Broadway is a better place for something with depth like Hunchback). We’ll see about Hercules. There’s a lot of potential there."

Its kind of late to wish for the demise of Frozen after its already run a year. Also if Hercules is arousing success at the Public next month, it wouldn't surprise anyone on this Board if Disney announces a June closing for Frozen to make way for Hercules. They have done that in the past where they close the weakest performing of their current productions to make way for a new one Beauty and the Beast for The Little Mermaid, Mary Poppins for Aladdin, and originally Newsies for Hunchback of Notre Dame before Bob Iger fast tracked Frozen. Schumacher then didn't want to cannibalize their own market, by having 4 shows running simultaneously, when Disney has struggled to have 3 shows running simultaneously. The only time they had done so without a show announcing a closing within a year of the previous shows opening was when Beauty and the Beast, The Lion King, and Aidia from 2000-2004, the last of which although a Disney production, was not marketed as such. Schumacher likely originally thought when he let the Public take a risk with Hercules this summer, that Aladdin would be approaching the final leg of its run having run for over 5 years at this point, and never truly being the SRO hit of Beauty and the Beast and The Lion King. Aladdin is up 20% year over year in terms of weekly sales compared to Frozen being down 35%, so it looks like Aladdin clearly has many more years to go in its run compared to Frozen's which is more uncertain. Thus while Schumacher likely was originally intending to close Aladdin to make way for Hercules if the Public's production is a rousing success, he could easily close Frozen and save face in the announcement by saying its being done to make way for Hercules.

DramaTeach said: "^ Not a little late for that as I’ve been thinking this since I saw it last year. Lots of their company decisions recently have felt misguided. Not sure where the “magic” went."

The root of the problem with Frozen's production, is that it didn't follow the successful model Schumacher instituted after the quick demises of Tarzan and The Little Mermaid. After both shows quickly set their course on Broadway, Shumacher later realized doomed the productions from the start. He has stated being forced to stick to a Broadway timeline, does not allow much room let alone time for a musical/production to be reworked and changed if elements aren't working. This is why post The Little Mermaid, Disney Theatricals stopped setting Broadway as the goal for its productions. Schumacher has stated Disney Theatrical has the luxury of being a part of a multibillion corporation that is not reliant constantly turning out hit new productions to stay afloat. Instead he realized he could use the Pixar and Disney Animation model, that its better put an idea that isn't ready for prime time back on the shelf, then letting it flop before its ready. Therefore he started out trying a new model where he'd let creative teams test out productions in smaller regional houses with a hands off approach. This allowed Disney Theatrical to take risks without hurting the bottom line. The first production to come out of this model was Newsies, which was originally intended to be just a show for Disney to license to regional and high school houses, as they had been getting numerous requests for official versions. Then when they did the test production at Papermill Playhouse, the show opens to rave reviews and audiences were eating it up. This gave Disney the confidence to bring the show to Broadway. Similarly Aladdin had 5 regional productions to tinker on the show before its official Pre-Broadway production in Toronto. Then there's Peter and the Starcatcher, which Disney had a completely hands off approach to the production, despite being the owner of the source material is its the official prequel to "Disney's Peter Pan". While those three successes that Disney later brought to Broadway, if a show didn't work Disney would either shelf the show or license it out. Examples of these include: The Jungle Book, Pinocchio, Hunchback of Notre Dame, and Freaky Friday, the last of which was successful enough for Disney to turn it into a made for TV movie. Frozen is the exception to the new rule, as Bob Iger himself wanted the show on Broadway, and as he's Schumacher's boss, Schumacher obliged. Iger set the time table for Frozen and not Schumacher, nor any of the creative team involved. Thus I am sure all involved would of loved to take a year between Denver and Broadway to rework the show from both a physical and written perspective (aka I am sure they wanted to figure out how to include the stairwell, that the California Adventure theme park version has as a jaw dropping moment), but they were on a time table, and did the best they could. Schumacher will likely have the creative teams take some risks in the Tour and London productions, that if successful will be quickly incorporated into the Broadway production.

a friend of mine that's a concierge said, his top requested shows are:

Harry Potter

Hamilton

Moulin Rouge

Hadestown

To Kill A Mockingbird

Ain't Too Proud