BustopherPhantom's 'Tony Win' Predictions (Techies)- Page 2

[BustopherPhantom]

Posted: 5/21/08 at 11:04pm

Well yeah. That's true.

I will say, though, that this production of THE HOMECOMING has been praised by some as being more "accessible", as being more of a (as Raul Esparza called it) "sick comedy" than other productions. That could get some votes the show wouldn't normally get.

As it is, I still don't think it can beat BOEING-BOEING.

[singtopher]

Posted: 5/21/08 at 11:39pm

I'm pulling for Morton. Her performance was the highlight of the whole show for me.

Szot was good in SP, but it didn't scream Tony to me. The only other performance in that category I saw was Evans. Personally, I'd vote for Evans over Szot.

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 5/22/08 at 4:22am

I would vote for Morton, but I really think Dunagan is going to win.

She has the showier performance. Her role is force-fed to the audience. Morton is more smooth and carefully intense. I see the average Tony voter walking away remembering that crazy lady with the pills over the very human performance that Morton is giving.

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 5/22/08 at 4:34am

As I've said before, haven't seen the play, but just judging from buzz and award history, I say Dunagan will go home with it. She won the Jeff Award, she won the Drama Desk...she could very possibly win. Of course sometimes there is a mild "surprise" (Jennifer Ehle winning over Martha Plimptom last year...most predicted Plimptom but everyone knew that if she didn't win, it'd go to Ehle) so who knows? Perhaps Morton still has a chance. We'll see.
I say BOEING-BOEING has the Best Revival Tony in the bag.
And I'm sure the Tony for Best Actor is Szot's, Tony voters don't love anything more than an unknown talent (in the Broadway boards only of course) making a big splash... then again this could also cause Lin-Manuel Miranda to win (think Sutton Foster, Kristin Chenoweth, John Lloyd Young).

[bwaygal1]

Posted: 5/22/08 at 10:11am

I think Dunagan has it. It isn't just a showier performance: It's her delivery. She's special in that role. Her performnance is extraordinary. I am not sure that many people could do it as well as she does it. It's a physically and emotionally demanding role. I liked Amy Morton's performance well enough but I think Deanna Dunagan really stood out.

As for Paolo Szot-he was brilliant. I thought he'd give a weak performance acting wise because he's an opera singer-but Szot has proven he can indeed act the role as well as sing it. He has the award in my opinion.

[BustopherPhantom]

Posted: 5/22/08 at 5:21pm

Best Featured Actor in a Play

At the season's start, most of the Tony buzz concerned whether Raul Esparza's performance as Lenny in The Homecoming would be good enough to warrant a Tony this year, especially after being upset last year in a race almost everyone assumed was his. Unfortunately, his nomination this year will probably be, once again, his reward: reviews for his performance were very good, but not great. Apparently, his performance got better as the show's run went on, but his buzz has been eclipsed by other contenders.

And then there are the two nominees from the other Ensemble Drama of the season, The Seafarer: Conleth Hill and Jim Norton. Hill gave the more comic performance of the two as a man going through the whole evening without his glasses, reduced to bumping around the room (and yes, there is more to the role than that). But Norton, who won the Olivier for this role, is the more likely of the two to win: a performance David Rooney of Variety labeled as “right up there with the great filthy, mischief-making drunks of all time.”

As to whether Norton will definitely win, however, I have doubts. Sitting in the corner as the nominee most didn't know for sure would happen is David Pittu, who played a variety of characters in Is He Dead?, all hilariously. Even if the play itself isn't very funny out of context, Michael Blakemore (the director) and the cast molded it into an evening a lot of voters had a great time at. And hey, Pittu also didn't win last year.

My prediction? Jim Norton – but don't be surprised if Pittu upsets.

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

There's a lot of support out there for Boyd Gaines, whose performance as Herbie in Gypsy was hailed as the best in the show's history. There's also support for Robin DeJesus from In the Heights, a hilarious wannabe-cool-guy and the little brother of Usnavi (Lin-Manuel Miranda).

But to my mind, the easy frontrunner here is Daniel Breaker for Passing Strange, for one of two reasons. Either the voters will pick him because they geniuinly loved his energetic performance as Stew's younger self, or because they'll want to give Passing Strange an award of some kind. The show may not be accessible, but Breaker definitely is.

Best Featured Actress in a Play

This is tricky.

Let's eliminate the ones who probably won't win first. Laurie Metcalf was definitely funny in November, but her role wasn't very substantial, and the play itself isn't admired as (according to Brantley) “the David Mamet play for those who don't like David Mamet.” Sinead Cusack has a better chance as two different characters in Stoppard's Rock 'n' Roll, but her play also closed a while ago.

So we've got Mary McCormack, a standout in the hilarious Boeing-Boeing ensemble, Rondi Reed, also hilarious and evil in August: Osage County, and Martha Plimpton, who plays both a female Pope and a teenager (convincingly) in the Best Revival-snubbed Top Girls.

Any of the three could win. If I had to guess... I'd pick Martha Plimpton, who was nominated last year, and who turned out very good work this season (she also got raves for her leading turn in Cymbeline). If she didn't win, Mary McCormack would be my second choice.

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Three of the five can be eliminated immediately. Andrea Martin was great in Young Frankenstein, but the show isn't as loved. Loretta Ables Sayre gave one of several wonderful performances in South Pacific, but her buzz hasn't been built as high as her co-stars. And de'Adre Aziza should just be very happy with her nomination.

So that leaves Laura Benanti, giving a performance as Louise in Gypsy which is also considered “the best ever”, and Olga Merediz, who knocks audiences dead with her signature “Paciencia y Fe (Patience and Faith)” in In the Heights.

If the voters want to reward Merediz for paying her dues (she's been performing on Broadway since 1984, and this is her first big role), then she might win.

But Laura Benanti has had the Tony buzz since the season's beginning, when people were wondering whether she would be reprising her Encores! role for Broadway. She's part of the reason this production of Gypsy is considered definitive. She's well-liked in the industry (despite numerous health problems that caused her to miss performances in most of her shows), and hasn't won before.

She'll win. If she doesn't, I'll cry.

[BenKaye]

Posted: 5/22/08 at 6:42pm

I completely agree about Daniel Breaker. I think he could easily win the Tony.

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 5/22/08 at 6:56pm

I think Daniel Breaker will win in the similar way that Kristin Chenoweth and Anika Noni Rose won Featured awards for their shows. New-comer making a splash. Especially the year Rose won, people felt it was a way of giving CAROLINE OR CHANGE an award, so who knows? Perhaps this will be the award that will go to PASSING STRANGE, especially if they don't get score or musical.
I vote for Breaker as well.
Benanti has too much buzz going on for Merediz to win.
I doubt Plimptom will win for TOP GIRLS, but who knows? I think McCormick could easily take the award.

[bwaygal1]

Posted: 5/22/08 at 7:00pm

I think Rondi Reed will win. She is really excellent and she's in the best reviewed play of the season. (She's actually improved over the course of the performances I've seen. She deserves the win for that feat alone-she was great to begin with but she's gotten better.)

Best Featured Actor I tend to think Danny Burstein has a chance. If not him then Breaker.

[MovieGuy1031]

Posted: 5/22/08 at 7:24pm

I completely agree about Laura Benanti

"She'll win. If she doesn't, i'll cry."

- and i'll be right there with you, Bustopher...

[bjh2114]

Posted: 5/22/08 at 7:33pm

There is no way that Rondi Reed is not winning that Tony. Plimpton was good, but not at her personal best. And Rondi is in the best play of the season, in a role that's making audiences laugh their butts off. Personally, if anyone is going to steal it from Reed, I believe it will be McCormack. Don't count out Metcalf though. She is giving a great performance in a so-so play, and she did already win the OCC award this season for her role.

As for Featured Actor in a Musical, I think people are giving Breaker too much credit. Tony voters have caught the Gypsy wave, and Boyd is a Tony baby. They LOVE him. I would be SHOCKED if he didn't win.

EDIT: Also, I agree that Benanti will win. But, if anyone takes it from her it won't be Merediz. It will be Ables-Sayre. Updated On: 5/22/08 at 07:33 PM

[Drunk Chita Rivera]

Posted: 5/22/08 at 7:34pm

I do agree about Olga, she has been around a while and she may not have to much longer to create a role. Laura has a while. And Robin (Sonny) is the cousin of Usnavi

[BustopherPhantom]

Posted: 5/23/08 at 9:28pm

Best Director of a Play

Here's a case of the winner riding on the buzz of her show: Anna D. Shapiro will probably win for directing the fantastic ensemble and fantastic material of August: Osage County.

Conor McPherson surprised a lot of people who didn't think a playwright would be the best director of his own work with his wonderful direction of The Seafarer (mostly because of his endlessly inventive variations on the physicality of inebriation). Matthew Warchus, like Michael Blakemore with Is He Dead?, gave a potentially dusty play a huge makeover and created a really-really-funny show. Maria Aitken managed to put an Alfred Hitchcock film (with a train sequence, airplanes, etc.) on stage: 'nuff said.

But it'll be Shapiro. And it deserves to be.

Best Director of a Musical

There's been a bit of grumbling lately that non-profit shows like the ones at Lincoln Center and Roundabout shouldn't be in competition with commercial shows, as the formers don't have to make a profit, and can afford to be as lavish as possible (a note to Roundabout: that means you can afford to splurge on orchestrations).

But you can't argue with the results, and the winner of this category will be the man who guided one of this year's raved-for-revivals into a now-open-ended run that everyone wants to see: Bartlett Sher for South Pacific.

There are other reasons: he's a respected figure on Broadway, having directed quality productions of Craig Lucas and Adam Guettel's The Light in the Piazza and Clifford Odet's Awake and Sing! (which won Best Revival of a Play two years ago). He was lauded by Ben Brantley as the man who “has brought full-blown lyricism back to Broadway.” And he's never won before.

If there's any chance of an upset, it'll be by Arthur Laurents, who directed “the definitive production” of Gypsy this season. But Sher is definitely the safe bet.

Best Book of a Musical

Congratulations, Douglas Carter Beane: if you didn't have this award in the bag before, Cubby Bernstein has scmoozed his way to a 99.9% lock.

Of course, it helps that there isn't strong competition. Cry-Baby doesn't have a chance, Passing Strange might upset, but only if the voters want to award a Broadway Original, and In the Heights... well, it'll be a sad day if this book, which dragged the rest of the show down with it, wins.

Best Original Score

This is an almost-lock for Lin-Manuel Miranda: his score for In the Heights was praised as the real high-point of the show, and what gave it so much energy. But then (again) there's Passing Strange, which is original: that might get it an upset.

Again, if Stew and Heidi Rodewald upset, look for Miranda to upset Best Leading Actor over Paulo Szot.

And a note to Heidi Rodewald: I never got the two of you confused. You needn't feel insignificant at all.

Updated On: 5/23/08 at 09:28 PM

[BustopherPhantom]

Posted: 5/24/08 at 11:05pm

Best Scenic Design of a Musical

Sunday in the Park with George: To acknowledge the seamless integration of virtual elements with the scenery. To acknowledge Sunday's achievement in general.

Best Costume Design of a Musical

In the Heights: To give Heights something in the technical categories. But it could win LIGHTING instead, with Pacific winning COSTUMES.

Best Lighting Design of a Musical

South Pacific: To give South Pacific something in the technical categories. But it could win COSTUMES instead, with Heights winning LIGHTING.

Best Sound Design of a Musical
Gypsy: To give "the definitive production" a technical award. Heights has a chance, though.

Best Scenic Design of a Play

The 39 Steps: Because they made an Alfred Hitchcock movie on stage with a chair, a box of matches and a case of Generic Brand Cola.

Best Costume Design of a Play

Cyrano de Bergerac: Because it's flashy work and because voters will remember a show that'll be recorded for Great Performances. A very possible upset is Les Liaisons Dangereuses.

Best Lighting Design of a Play

Macbeth: Again, because it's noticable. If they want to give August a techie, it could upset.

Best Sound Design of a Play

An almost-lock: Macbeth. Because it was on par with a wonderfully technical production, and defined it in a way (the production was very noisy, after all). Possible upset: The 39 Steps.

Best Orchestrations

Passing Strange: To give the show something besides Best Featured Actor.

Best Choreography

In the Heights: Because it's had the award in the bag since season's start.