BustopherPhantom's 'Tony Win' Predictions (Techies)

[BustopherPhantom]

Posted: 5/19/08 at 11:27pm

I'll post one of these articles every day:

Best Musical

Spring Awakening had it easy: there was nothing like it on Broadway when it opened, leading to an eight-award sweep on the Tonys. One year later, In the Heights and Passing Strange have opened, and “the new contemporary musical” must be compared to another “the new contemporary musical.”

In the comparison, In the Heights has been labeled “the old-fashioned new contemporary musical,” due to its sentimental (even soapy) plotline about a winning lottery ticket, true love against all odds, etc. Passing Strange is the Broadway anomaly*; a musical that isn't so much a musical as it is a rock concert, but it has a story and actors, but the band is on-stage, but...

If a Tony win could be predicted simply by reviews, Passing Strange (which got a lot of raves and a few pans) would easily beat out In the Heights (with a general mixed-to-positive response).

But then Evita, which got across-the-board pans back in 1979, wouldn't have gone anywhere near Best Musical, let alone won.

The main consideration: which show is more accessible? Passing Strange, despite its collection of raves, is so out-there that one either loves it or hates it: there's no in-between. In the Heights, by contrast, has a little something for everyone: good touring chances for the Tour Voters, an old-fashioned structure for the Old Voters, and a fantastic, new-wave score for the Young Voters.

My Prediction: In the Heights; HOWEVER, don't count out Passing Strange if the voters want to reward The Show That's Like No Other (it isn't likely, though).

“But what about the other nominees?”

Xanadu is only nominated for four awards, and a Best Book win won't likely convince voters that a show with only one win should get Best Musical. Also, the show has more haters than its fans might think. Better luck next year, Cubby.

Cry-Baby? About the same chance as The Wedding Singer.

*Thanks for the spell-check, Wanna Be A Foster

Updated On: 5/24/08 at 11:27 PM

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 5/19/08 at 11:29pm

This is a great idea, bustopher...can't wait to read the others!

[CurtainPullDowner]

Posted: 5/19/08 at 11:34pm

IN THE HEIGHTS and PASSING STRANGE couls split the vote and XANADU could slip right in and WIN for sheer fun.

My vote goes to the DU.

[thetinymagic2]

Posted: 5/20/08 at 1:55am

Great analysis, Bustopher...even though I love PS, I have to admit that it's a strictly "young" market. There may be a few older fans out there (hopefully), but, in essence, I agree with you.
Anyway, I would love a TIE!!
In reality, wouldn't all the theatre nerds on these Bway boards like to see as many shows stay open as possible, even those they personally hate? I mean, it's JOBS! Tony or no Tony, the PEOPLE of the world will be the deciding vote, about 2 months after the TONYS, after the intense hoopla subsides.

[CapnHook]

Posted: 5/20/08 at 3:14am

Let's say 100 people vote for Best Musical.

Let's say, AT THIS TIME, the votes go as follows:

40 - IN THE HEIGHTS
35 - PASSING STRANGE
20 - XANADU
5 - CRY-BABY

However, let's just say that, for the sake of argument, the Cubby Bernstein takes 5 votes away from the other three nominees and gives it to XANADU:

35 - IN THE HEIGHTS
30 - PASSING STRANGE
35 - XANADU
0 - CRY-BABY

We have a tie.

Who knows what kind of effect XANADU's Tony campaign will have. Perhaps a 5% vote change-up is way too much. One never knows.

There is strong support for three of the four nominees: IN THE HEIGHTS, PASSING STRANGE, and XANADU. IN THE HEIGHTS is viewed, in my opinion, as the frontrunner. However, the other two nominees have STRONG support. Overwhelming support. And I don't think IN THE HEIGHTS will be able to make it through. PASSING STRANGE may very well come in with an upset. And XANADU would have an even bigger upset - but that is a longshot (though not out of reach, due to the split of the other two nominees!).

In a way, this reminds me of the 2004 Tony year.
IN THE HEIGHTS = WICKED's status
PASSING STRANGE = AVENUE Q'S status
XANADU = CAROLINE OR CHANGE's status

I feel it's very unpredictable. I have a hunch PASSING STRANGE will win it. If I am wrong, I wouldn't be surprised, because it's very possible two other situations will happen. Nothing is farfetched this year.

[buddharich]

Posted: 5/20/08 at 8:25am

All I can say is I so don't want Passing Strange to win! I'd be thrilled with ITH or X winning. If PS wins, it will be the first Best Musical that I absolutely hated (it's my least favorite show of all time that I've ever seen). I can't bear that anyone thinks that garbage will win. I'm convinced that the "tour" voters will vote for Xanadu, not In The Heights, so I'm just not sure. What is the breakdown of tony voters? What percentage of voters are behind the scenes people, gypsies, performers, etc.? What is the ethnic breakdown of voters? btw, Passing Strange was more in the Caroline, or Change position, not Avenue Q. Avenue Q is much more in the In The Heights position in the analogy of that tony award.

[buddharich]

Posted: 5/20/08 at 8:26am

All I can say is I so don't want Passing Strange to win! I'd be thrilled with ITH or X winning. If PS wins, it will be the first Best Musical that I absolutely hated (it's my least favorite show of all time that I've ever seen). I can't bear that anyone thinks that garbage will win. I'm convinced that the "tour" voters will vote for Xanadu, not In The Heights, so I'm just not sure. What is the breakdown of tony voters? What percentage of voters are behind the scenes people, gypsies, performers, etc.? What is the ethnic breakdown of voters? btw, Passing Strange was more in the Caroline, or Change position, not Avenue Q. Avenue Q is much more in the In The Heights position in the analogy of that tony award.

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 5/20/08 at 8:34am

15% are touring voters.

[Ed_Mottershead]

Posted: 5/20/08 at 8:36am

Xanadu

[bschneid76]

Posted: 5/20/08 at 8:52am

If I were a Tony Voter and had to choose between In the Heights and Passing Strange hands down In the Heights, as I didn't find anything entertaining in Passing Strange. And no one as of yet can give me a satisfying answer as to WHY the leading character left Amsterdam!? There is nothing in the Book that explains to hints to why he ups and leaves, Amsterdam seemed like a nice place to be...at least that the was most entertaining portion of the show. Xanadu may have haters but they don't give satisfying answers as to why they hate the show either. But In the Heights will probably take the votes and win....although it would be a riot if Cry-Baby took the votes and won.

[bwaygal1]

Posted: 5/20/08 at 10:54am

IN THE HEIGHTS and PASSING STRANGE couls split the vote and XANADU could slip right in and WIN for sheer fun.

My vote goes to the DU.


To quote Danny from Xanadu: Bingo! This is what I've said from the start. The best thing that happened to Xanadu is that BOTH In the Heights and Passing Strange were nominated. They could split the vote-they do indeed appeal to a similar audience I think and a certain mentality. And if Xanadu wins best book as it should then that might be reason enough to reward the overall show. (It is an ensemble piece quite a lot of the time anyway.) And it has already announced its tour and a sit down production in Chicago is in the works. It will tour much better than the local In the Heights. (No one in the rural areas of America has a clue where 'the heights' are, when I was there people in the audience didn't for heaven's sake.)

I hope Xanadu pulls it off.

[thetinymagic2]

Posted: 5/20/08 at 2:26pm

"I can't bear that anyone thinks that garbage will win."

So I guess, in general life, Buddharich, you can ONLY bear your OWN opinion. What else can you NOT bear? That ANYONE has a thought or opinion different, or g-d forbid more important, or more informed than yours?

[Ourtime992]

Posted: 5/20/08 at 4:03pm

This would be a great year to test how powerful the moniker "Best Musical winner" is. Every last voter should stand behind Cry-Baby and watch to see how long it can stay afloat with a Tony. My guess is it wouldn't last as long as Passion (8 months, was it?) even if it swept this year.

[BustopherPhantom]

Posted: 5/20/08 at 4:22pm

Best Play

No show has everything going for it: Spring Awakening might have lost Best Book if enough voters hadn't liked its didactic, tract-like quality.

Steppenwolf's August: Osage County got across-the-board raves upon opening on Broadway (Charles Isherwood called it “flat-out, no asterisks and without qualifications, the most exciting new American play Broadway has seen in years”) The play ran three-and-a-half hours without once losing the audience's attention. It is the season's big hit, recouping its investment right after moving theaters for a now-open-ended run. It boasts a talented ensemble, including two star turns from Deanna Dunagan (as the raging mother) and Amy Morton (as the other raging mother). It won the Pulitzer. Etc. Etc. Etc.

But it echoes a lot of classic American plays (Long Day's Journey Into Night, Buried Child, Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?). The voters might pass it over, might think it isn't original enough, might think it's just a crowd-pleasing potboiler.

Nah. It'll win.

Best Revival of a Musical

Grease!, because the voters will want to see what happens.

(yeah yeah, “What about the other nominees...”)

Sunday in the Park with George got all raves, mostly because of two wonderful leading actors (Daniel Evans and Jenna Russell), the innovative and seamless use of projections, and direction that unlocked the buried heart of the show. But the orchestrations have come under fire for their sparceness, and the show opened in February, the memory of it soon to be dispelled by the following two revivals.

Gypsy has become the musical event of the season. For audiences, this is because “the best musical of all time” has been effectively turned into The Patti LuPone Show (bow your heads, if you please, for her understudy). For theater lovers, the revival also boasted great performances from Boyd Gaines (as Herbie) and Laura Benanti (as Louise); not for nothing has this been called “the definitive production” of Gypsy.

And then there's South Pacific. Like the previous two revivals, it got all raves. But something's different here, and not just because Pacific is already set to tour. Pacific, with its “You've Got to be Carefully Taught” dustyness, wasn't perceived as the best candidate for a Rogers-and-Hammerstein revival. But Bartlett Sher and Lincoln Center have mounted a production that is gorgeous to look at, wonderful to listen to, cast wonderfully, not overtly sentimental, and – best of all – not captured in its own time. Brantley called it a perfect production.

Either Gypsy or Sunday could upset (Gypsy the likeliest). But there is so much excitement over Pacific that it remains the easy frontrunner. The show is loved that much.

(and the last time Rogers and Hammerstein won a Best Revival award was in 1994)

Best Revival of a Play

In a season with so many play revivals, it would be nice to say that the committee really had to dig deep in order to find the best choices for nominations. Unfortunately, most of the revivals were disappointing; the only real surprise was the generally-well-received Top Girls being snubbed for the generally-”meh”-received Les Liaisons Dangereuses (although Dangereuses was certainly more accessible).

Of the nominees? Dangereuses, despite its accessibility, isn't a likely win: high praise was more directed at the leading man (Ben Daniels) than at the show itself. Macbeth is definitely an exciting (and noisy) production, but there isn't enough excitement built for the actual show; more for Patrick Stewart and Kate Fleetwood. The Homecoming was half-and-half (despite its mostly very positive reviews): either you liked it and thought it was just as scary forty years after its Broadway premiere, or you didn't think it was scary enough. Also, it closed back in April.

So the easy frontrunner is Boeing-Boeing, an old old farce that could have been severly dusty and unbearable, and instead became one of the funniest and most enjoyable nights at the theater this season. If there is the chance of an upset, The Homecoming is most likely to do so (the production itself does have a lot of fans).

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 5/20/08 at 4:40pm

Wow, I really think Macbeth is going to win Best Revival.

Interesting...

[shh282]

Posted: 5/20/08 at 4:42pm

I'd be really happy if Boeing Boeing took it.

[Yankeefan007]

Posted: 5/20/08 at 4:46pm

BOEING will easily win the Tony. A reinvigorated, stylized sex farce from the 60s that has already played more performances on Broadway than the original production. Plus it got rave reviews.

[BustopherPhantom]

Posted: 5/21/08 at 4:59pm

Best Leading Actor in a Play

Patrick Stewart is the first actor to be nominated for playing Macbeth (I can hear your shock: “Kelsey Grammer wasn't?!”), and, on Tony night, he'll probably become the first in the role to win.

Which is not to discredit the other nominees. Ben Daniels gave the best performance in Les Liaisons Dangereuses (and it was a good performance, too); Lawrence Fishburne greatly impressed in his one-man show Thurgood; Mark Rylance may have a chance for being, in a wonderful ensemble, one of the funniest ones on stage in Boeing-Boeing. Rufus Sewell's performance in Rock 'n' Roll was raved for, but the show closed in March, and memory will probably not serve him well.

But, in the end, Stewart is the best bet: he's well-known, well-loved, and – having never been nominated before – long due.

Best Leading Actress in a Play

The way talk has been, you'd think the only two nominees in this category are Deanna Dunagan and Amy Morton, both of August: Osage County.

It's true that, of all August's winning qualities, these two actresses have been the most noticed: Dunagan for her flashy, hilarious performance as the pill-stashing matriarch (a turn that made an already compelling part even better on stage), and Morton for playing the emotional center of the play, for the performance that really stuck with some audiences.

Really, either actress could win. But let's consider – God forbid – a situation where the vote was split between the two. Who would be the next choice?

Kate Fleetwood would be my guess: her performance in Macbeth was placed on the same level as Stewart's (with Stewart gladly jumping on the praise wagon), and, unlike S. Epatha Menkerson (who gave the standout performance in Come Back, Little Sheba) and Eve Best (also the standout in The Homecoming, and a nominee last year), her show will have been the latest to close.

But a vote split isn't likely, given the buzz between these two actresses, and for Augustin general. It's a dead heat race for the moment.

My guess? Amy Morton (even though Deanna Dunagan won the Drama Desk award): her performance has the advantage of being both flashy and emotionally powerful.

Best Leading Actor in a Musical

This award is Paulo Szot's to lose – for now. He's part of a show that is loved loved loved by everyone, he's a visitor from the opera world, and he won the Drama Desk award.

But there is a caveat. Szot's frontrunner status could be seriously damaged if, on Tony night, Passing Strange upsets In the Heights by taking Best Original Score. If that happens, don't be surprised if the voters want to reward Lin-Manuel Miranda, who wrote a wonderful score and is a magnetic leading presence on stage, by giving him Best Leading Actor.

Of the other nominees: I thought Tom Wopat to be the frontrunner for most of the season (he's well-respected, and has never won before), but his show, in the end, doesn't have a lot of support, and it'll be an upset if he wins. Don't count out Daniel Evans if the voters want to reward Sunday for more than Best Scenic Design. Stew doesn't have a chance: after singing and jammin, he doesn't really do much actual acting (Cheyenne Jackson should have gotten his spot).

So as of now? Paulo Szot is the frontrunner. But Lin-Manuel Miranda could upset if he doesn't win Best Original Score.

Best Leading Actress in a Musical

Patti LuPone is about a 99.9% lock. Faith Prince got nothing but raves before official reviews for A Catered Affair came out, so don't count her out just yet. Kelli O'Hara could ride the South Pacific train to success. None of the others are contenders.

But come on. LuPone is giving a great performance in the Greatest Musical of All Time, a performance much improved from her turn at Encores! She made Ben Brantley eat two hats: his own, and then the chocolate one she sent. She is part of “the definitive production” of the show.

She'll win. No question. Almost.

Updated On: 5/22/08 at 04:59 PM

[SirNotAppearing]

Posted: 5/21/08 at 5:36pm

I don't think Tony voters will base their choices on "if somebody wins" like the Lin-Manuel situation you mentioned. They don't announce the winners before all voting is finished.
I agree that Miranda will probably win if his score doesn't, though. But I don't see why it wouldn't. Passing Strange doesn't have a huge chance at winning; it's too unconventional.

[BustopherPhantom]

Posted: 5/21/08 at 5:52pm

They don't announce the winners before all voting is finished.

Yes, but it all depends on a single voter's mindset. Will they think, "Well, I'll give PASSING STRANGE Best Score, but I really loved Paulo Szot, so I'll give him Best Leading Actor," or "Well, I'll give PASSING STRANGE Best Score, so Linn Miranda can have Best Leading Actor: he was really very good"?

It's the "Your Vote Counts!" mentality: if enough voters vote the latter, Linn could win. But I do agree that it isn't likely.

[bjh2114]

Posted: 5/21/08 at 7:33pm

I agree with these predictions so far, including the fact that Boeing-Boeing will probably win. I, however, did not like Boeing-Boeing as much I expected to given the raves it received. Now, I honestly think that The Homecoming doesn't stand a chance. It's too obscure and was too long ago. Macbeth might win, but Patrick will probably be enough of an award for that show. All of this being said, do not be surprised if Les Liaisons slips in for the win. It's accessible, out of town voters will know it as "the play Cruel Intentions is based on", everyone loves Laura Linney (especially with her recent turn in the John Adams HBO special), and the direction is actually quite good. I happen to know one Tony voter who has mentioned that she is voting for Liaisons, though she knew of many people voting for Boeing-Boeing. Boeing-Boeing will likely win, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Liaisons as the the upset choice.

[BustopherPhantom]

Posted: 5/21/08 at 8:09pm

Now, I honestly think that The Homecoming doesn't stand a chance. It's too obscure and was too long ago.

Well of course there are people who just don't like THE HOMECOMING, just don't like Pinter in general.

But too obscure? Huh?! Pinter is one of the most known playwrights in the canon, at least to those in the theater circle!

[Drunk Chita Rivera]

Posted: 5/21/08 at 8:12pm

Lin, is spelled with one N. Sorry it was bothering me


But yes, if he doesn't get actor then he will definitely get score. He just needs to get one or the other.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 5/21/08 at 9:47pm

I have a feeling Dunagan will win Best Actress...but the others I agree with.

[bjh2114]

Posted: 5/21/08 at 10:35pm

Bustopher, I do not use the word "obscure" to describe Pinter as not being well known. That's just silly. I literally mean that it's a strange piece. I don't think it can be denied that The Homecoming is a very strange piece of theatre. While that is fine normally, and there is no law saying strange theatre can't win Best Play, strange theatre in general doesn't win Best Revival awards. The first time out, if it's innovative, then sure. Winning revivals, however, are generally straight forward with a clear message that can be taken away. The majority of voters will pick something accessible. They don't want to award a show that they sat through that is a recreation of something already done if it's hard for them to wrap their brains around. And I know that sounds really dumb, but I can't put into words what I am trying to say in a more effective manner. Criticize me all you want, but it's pretty much true. When was the last time something as strange as The Homecoming won Best Revival of a play?