BustopherPhantom's 'Tony Win' Predictions (Techies)

This is a great idea, bustopher...can't wait to read the others!

Great analysis, Bustopher...even though I love PS, I have to admit that it's a strictly "young" market. There may be a few older fans out there (hopefully), but, in essence, I agree with you.
Anyway, I would love a TIE!!
In reality, wouldn't all the theatre nerds on these Bway boards like to see as many shows stay open as possible, even those they personally hate? I mean, it's JOBS! Tony or no Tony, the PEOPLE of the world will be the deciding vote, about 2 months after the TONYS, after the intense hoopla subsides.

All I can say is I so don't want Passing Strange to win! I'd be thrilled with ITH or X winning. If PS wins, it will be the first Best Musical that I absolutely hated (it's my least favorite show of all time that I've ever seen). I can't bear that anyone thinks that garbage will win. I'm convinced that the "tour" voters will vote for Xanadu, not In The Heights, so I'm just not sure. What is the breakdown of tony voters? What percentage of voters are behind the scenes people, gypsies, performers, etc.? What is the ethnic breakdown of voters? btw, Passing Strange was more in the Caroline, or Change position, not Avenue Q. Avenue Q is much more in the In The Heights position in the analogy of that tony award.

15% are touring voters.

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If I were a Tony Voter and had to choose between In the Heights and Passing Strange hands down In the Heights, as I didn't find anything entertaining in Passing Strange. And no one as of yet can give me a satisfying answer as to WHY the leading character left Amsterdam!? There is nothing in the Book that explains to hints to why he ups and leaves, Amsterdam seemed like a nice place to be...at least that the was most entertaining portion of the show. Xanadu may have haters but they don't give satisfying answers as to why they hate the show either. But In the Heights will probably take the votes and win....although it would be a riot if Cry-Baby took the votes and won.

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"I can't bear that anyone thinks that garbage will win."

So I guess, in general life, Buddharich, you can ONLY bear your OWN opinion. What else can you NOT bear? That ANYONE has a thought or opinion different, or g-d forbid more important, or more informed than yours?

Best Play

No show has everything going for it: Spring Awakening might have lost Best Book if enough voters hadn't liked its didactic, tract-like quality.

Steppenwolf's August: Osage County got across-the-board raves upon opening on Broadway (Charles Isherwood called it “flat-out, no asterisks and without qualifications, the most exciting new American play Broadway has seen in years”) The play ran three-and-a-half hours without once losing the audience's attention. It is the season's big hit, recouping its investment right after moving theaters for a now-open-ended run. It boasts a talented ensemble, including two star turns from Deanna Dunagan (as the raging mother) and Amy Morton (as the other raging mother). It won the Pulitzer. Etc. Etc. Etc.

But it echoes a lot of classic American plays (Long Day's Journey Into Night, Buried Child, Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?). The voters might pass it over, might think it isn't original enough, might think it's just a crowd-pleasing potboiler.

Nah. It'll win.

Best Revival of a Musical

Grease!, because the voters will want to see what happens.

(yeah yeah, “What about the other nominees...”)

Sunday in the Park with George got all raves, mostly because of two wonderful leading actors (Daniel Evans and Jenna Russell), the innovative and seamless use of projections, and direction that unlocked the buried heart of the show. But the orchestrations have come under fire for their sparceness, and the show opened in February, the memory of it soon to be dispelled by the following two revivals.

Gypsy has become the musical event of the season. For audiences, this is because “the best musical of all time” has been effectively turned into The Patti LuPone Show (bow your heads, if you please, for her understudy). For theater lovers, the revival also boasted great performances from Boyd Gaines (as Herbie) and Laura Benanti (as Louise); not for nothing has this been called “the definitive production” of Gypsy.

And then there's South Pacific. Like the previous two revivals, it got all raves. But something's different here, and not just because Pacific is already set to tour. Pacific, with its “You've Got to be Carefully Taught” dustyness, wasn't perceived as the best candidate for a Rogers-and-Hammerstein revival. But Bartlett Sher and Lincoln Center have mounted a production that is gorgeous to look at, wonderful to listen to, cast wonderfully, not overtly sentimental, and – best of all – not captured in its own time. Brantley called it a perfect production.

Either Gypsy or Sunday could upset (Gypsy the likeliest). But there is so much excitement over Pacific that it remains the easy frontrunner. The show is loved that much.

(and the last time Rogers and Hammerstein won a Best Revival award was in 1994)

Best Revival of a Play

In a season with so many play revivals, it would be nice to say that the committee really had to dig deep in order to find the best choices for nominations. Unfortunately, most of the revivals were disappointing; the only real surprise was the generally-well-received Top Girls being snubbed for the generally-”meh”-received Les Liaisons Dangereuses (although Dangereuses was certainly more accessible).

Of the nominees? Dangereuses, despite its accessibility, isn't a likely win: high praise was more directed at the leading man (Ben Daniels) than at the show itself. Macbeth is definitely an exciting (and noisy) production, but there isn't enough excitement built for the actual show; more for Patrick Stewart and Kate Fleetwood. The Homecoming was half-and-half (despite its mostly very positive reviews): either you liked it and thought it was just as scary forty years after its Broadway premiere, or you didn't think it was scary enough. Also, it closed back in April.

So the easy frontrunner is Boeing-Boeing, an old old farce that could have been severly dusty and unbearable, and instead became one of the funniest and most enjoyable nights at the theater this season. If there is the chance of an upset, The Homecoming is most likely to do so (the production itself does have a lot of fans).

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I'd be really happy if Boeing Boeing took it.

Best Leading Actor in a Play

Patrick Stewart is the first actor to be nominated for playing Macbeth (I can hear your shock: “Kelsey Grammer wasn't?!”), and, on Tony night, he'll probably become the first in the role to win.

Which is not to discredit the other nominees. Ben Daniels gave the best performance in Les Liaisons Dangereuses (and it was a good performance, too); Lawrence Fishburne greatly impressed in his one-man show Thurgood; Mark Rylance may have a chance for being, in a wonderful ensemble, one of the funniest ones on stage in Boeing-Boeing. Rufus Sewell's performance in Rock 'n' Roll was raved for, but the show closed in March, and memory will probably not serve him well.

But, in the end, Stewart is the best bet: he's well-known, well-loved, and – having never been nominated before – long due.

Best Leading Actress in a Play

The way talk has been, you'd think the only two nominees in this category are Deanna Dunagan and Amy Morton, both of August: Osage County.

It's true that, of all August's winning qualities, these two actresses have been the most noticed: Dunagan for her flashy, hilarious performance as the pill-stashing matriarch (a turn that made an already compelling part even better on stage), and Morton for playing the emotional center of the play, for the performance that really stuck with some audiences.

Really, either actress could win. But let's consider – God forbid – a situation where the vote was split between the two. Who would be the next choice?

Kate Fleetwood would be my guess: her performance in Macbeth was placed on the same level as Stewart's (with Stewart gladly jumping on the praise wagon), and, unlike S. Epatha Menkerson (who gave the standout performance in Come Back, Little Sheba) and Eve Best (also the standout in The Homecoming, and a nominee last year), her show will have been the latest to close.

But a vote split isn't likely, given the buzz between these two actresses, and for Augustin general. It's a dead heat race for the moment.

My guess? Amy Morton (even though Deanna Dunagan won the Drama Desk award): her performance has the advantage of being both flashy and emotionally powerful.

Best Leading Actor in a Musical

This award is Paulo Szot's to lose – for now. He's part of a show that is loved loved loved by everyone, he's a visitor from the opera world, and he won the Drama Desk award.

But there is a caveat. Szot's frontrunner status could be seriously damaged if, on Tony night, Passing Strange upsets In the Heights by taking Best Original Score. If that happens, don't be surprised if the voters want to reward Lin-Manuel Miranda, who wrote a wonderful score and is a magnetic leading presence on stage, by giving him Best Leading Actor.

Of the other nominees: I thought Tom Wopat to be the frontrunner for most of the season (he's well-respected, and has never won before), but his show, in the end, doesn't have a lot of support, and it'll be an upset if he wins. Don't count out Daniel Evans if the voters want to reward Sunday for more than Best Scenic Design. Stew doesn't have a chance: after singing and jammin, he doesn't really do much actual acting (Cheyenne Jackson should have gotten his spot).

So as of now? Paulo Szot is the frontrunner. But Lin-Manuel Miranda could upset if he doesn't win Best Original Score.

Best Leading Actress in a Musical

Patti LuPone is about a 99.9% lock. Faith Prince got nothing but raves before official reviews for A Catered Affair came out, so don't count her out just yet. Kelli O'Hara could ride the South Pacific train to success. None of the others are contenders.

But come on. LuPone is giving a great performance in the Greatest Musical of All Time, a performance much improved from her turn at Encores! She made Ben Brantley eat two hats: his own, and then the chocolate one she sent. She is part of “the definitive production” of the show.

She'll win. No question. Almost.

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Updated On: 5/22/08 at 04:59 PM

They don't announce the winners before all voting is finished.

Yes, but it all depends on a single voter's mindset. Will they think, "Well, I'll give PASSING STRANGE Best Score, but I really loved Paulo Szot, so I'll give him Best Leading Actor," or "Well, I'll give PASSING STRANGE Best Score, so Linn Miranda can have Best Leading Actor: he was really very good"?

It's the "Your Vote Counts!" mentality: if enough voters vote the latter, Linn could win. But I do agree that it isn't likely.

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Now, I honestly think that The Homecoming doesn't stand a chance. It's too obscure and was too long ago.

Well of course there are people who just don't like THE HOMECOMING, just don't like Pinter in general.

But too obscure? Huh?! Pinter is one of the most known playwrights in the canon, at least to those in the theater circle!

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I have a feeling Dunagan will win Best Actress...but the others I agree with.