HeyMrMusic said: "Last time this show was up for Best Revival, they voted for an okay production of Into the Woods (in a two-nominee race). We could likely see a repeat."
I would point out that the last production of Oklahoma was a critical disappointment, so that doesn't say much. While this one was divisive, most of the critics who actually know how to write thought it was revelatory.
Ironically, I have hated every production of Oklahoma I have seen (3 or 4, plus the movie), and I am really looking forward to seeing this one (not until October), because the revisions sound to me like the type of changes that are required to make it (for me) tolerable).
In the end, who knows, but I think it will be a shame if a mediocre revival of a not-great-in-the-first-place-aside-from half-the-score show wins because it aspires to Summer Stock quality, albeit with a Tier 1 leading lady.
Ironically, I must admit that I have always had mixed reactions to KMK; I generally enjoy the theatre story, and am hopelessly bored during the Shakespearean scenes. So I am not a fan of either show in earlier incarnations (and of KMK in this one).