I didn't see Kiss Me, Kate and I know it has admirers, but the consensus view seems to be that it's a traditional, somewhat uninspired revival with a few tweaks to the book and some good choreography.
That doesn't mean it won't win the Tony, though. The revival "contest" feels like a referendum on the Oklahoma! revival. I liked it a lot, despite some experiments that I didn't think worked, but there are plenty of people who hated the show. If those people make up a majority of Tony voters, Kiss Me, Kate wins.
My hypothetical comparison, based on current revivals I've actually seen, would be Oklahoma! and My Fair Lady, which we saw on consecutive days last month. I know my family would be divided if we were Tony voters. We enjoyed both musicals.