Flop & Best Musical predictions for new season

This is one of the most exciting seasons I can remember but a lot of the shows are going to be competing for the same dollar. So, which of the new shows do you think won't make it to summer?

My biggest bet is that Wonderland will crash and burn quick.

I think the Best Musical battle is going to come down to Catch Me if You Can and The Book of Mormon... and I'd be happy with either of those winning.

What say you!

Friends that were able to see the workshop said the music in Book of Mormon is very legit Broadway but I'm sorta baffled why there is nothing out there. I've now heard music from SisterAct, Wonderland, Catch Me, etc yet Book of Mormon seems to be keeping things secretive.

Has anyone heard anything from it? I keep hoping they post something to their Facebook but sadly nothing yet

I LOVED 'Catch Me' in Seattle, but unless they overhauled the show for the better, I don't think it's best musical material, sadly Though I do wish to be proven wrong. Tony's for leading and supporting actors/actresses? Yes.

I'm still hoping BBAJ wins the Tony. (Which if it did, it would break the record for shortest-running Best Musical winner, succeeding PASSION)

I think PRISCILLA, SISTER ACT, THE BOOK OF MORMON, and CATCH ME IF YOU CAN will cause the most fervor.

For me, the jury is out on HOW TO SUCCEED (since we don't know how Daniel Radcliffe sings) and THE PEOPLE IN THE PICTURE.

I'm thinking WONDERLAND and SPIDER-MAN will fold like origami swans.

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Ok...I'm HOPING.

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I agree with RippedMan .. once reviews come out for Spider-man (pending them being raves), it won't sell as good because most the mystery (& hopefully injuries/etc) will be over with.

Re; WONDERLAND - Janet has the best material in the show, having several solos: "Worst Day of My Life" (altered from the concept album greatly now), "Down the Rabbit Hole," "Once More I Can See," and "Finding Wonderland," not to mention several duets, and other touching moments. She's on stage pretty much the entire show.

That being said I think Sister Act will prove to be a big hit, Catch Me If You Can will do good business but no where near the sell-outs some people have been anticipating, and Priscilla, also, will not be a huge hit like everyone is saying.

Remember when everybody predicted MEMPHIS would be a huge flop before it opened and that THE ADDAMS FAMILY would be the shoo-in for Best Musical?

I always love looking back at these threads come Tony time.

That said, I think SISTER ACT & CATCH ME will be successes. I'm most excited for SISTER ACT, BOOK OF MORMON, and to see what they do to help improve CATCH ME.

SPIDER-MAN should be interesting to keep an eye on. I find it very hard to believe it can sustain a run long enough to be a financial success. It would have to sell out every ticket to every performance for 3+ years.

I'm genuinely excited for a lot of musical productions this season, come to think of it....

Updated On: 1/14/11 at 03:21 PM

I'm quite excited for the spring's musicals, especially because the fall played out so much more differently than I had expected.

I thought WOMEN ON THE VERGE was going to be my favorite new musical of the fall and probably even a contender for Best Musical. Then I saw it. I really enjoyed BLOODY BLOODY ANDREW JACKSON and THE SCOTTSBORO BOYS, but don't expect to see much of them come awards season.

This spring, I'm most excited for CATCH ME and SISTER ACT, although I'm not expecting either to be huge critical hits. I think BOOK OF MORMON will play well with the critics, and I'm quite curious to see how THE PEOPLE IN THE PICTURE is received. I know nothing about it; it really could go either way.

I wouldn't underestimate Priscilla. It has spectacle and a mainstream pop score on its side.

I saw Sister Act in London and I fear it will struggle. I don't see the reviews being stronger than Women on the Verge, but the familiar title and strong marketing could give it a bit of traction.

I sort of assumed Catch Me if You Can would be the big hit this season, but Book of Mormon could be its strongest competitor. The lid on Mormon is so tight, though. We really don't know what to expect. If they push it too far, they could have a Jerry Springer: The Opera on their hands and the response could be too polarizing for a commercial hit. Catch Me if You Can will have a snazzy score and sex appeal on its side. Plus, it is tour material.

People in the Picture will go the way of Everyday Rapture.

Spider-Man could do well financially, but the critics will rip everything to shreds except perhaps design if they get it sorted.

Though I generally like Wildhorn, I don't have high hopes for Wonderland. I just don't think the concept is compelling enough to bring in audiences (especially with no bankable stars attached) nor the material strong enough to win over the critics. The only thing the show has going for it is Alice in Wonderland which has proven to be rocky material to navigate. Only the Disney animated film has given a universally embraced vision of the source material. It would need some astounding visuals, instantly memorable tunes and a fiercely engaging story to compete with Wicked, which seems to be its closest competitor.

I'm just sad Women on the Verge closed. I loved it and I saw a truly Tony-worthy performance from Benanti. And I haven't been as obsessed with a score in YEARS.

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