leefowler said: "I haven't seen it, but based on the reviews Groundhog Day is definitely the favorite for Best Musical this year. Yes, I know that big hits in London don't necessarily translate over here (Enron being a good example.) But the reviews weren't just favorable, they were laudatory, with a rave from Brantley. Trust me, their decision to come in this season was terrible news for every other musical opening this season."
EL OH EL. Biggest laugh of the week for me thus far. I guess you're forgetting about all of the other new musicals, along with two that have, for the most part, become critical darlings (Dear Evan Hansen, Natasha...). If we were to make every Tony Award prediction based on critics' reviews, we would be wrong about 80 to 90% of the time; and reviews by British critics no less, with the exception of Brantley!