It looks like this one will probably take it home. The only real competition I could see would be from Tootsie and/or The Prom, especially if the voters want to go towards a more lighthearted musical (like Kinky Boots or Gentleman's Guide). I still think BMC will get a nomination (if only because of the fanfare leading up to it, the introduction of Joe Iconis to musical theatre, and/or certain performances by some of the actors), but it definitely won't win.
"I think that when a movie says it was 'based on a true story,' oh, it happened - just with uglier people." - Peanut Walker, Shucked