HAIRSPRAY at the Box Office...

Although I want the movie to make tons, it has some tough competition. I bet it will probably gross about 30-45 million opening weekend.

Box office windfalls usually happen for tentpole movies ( e.g., action, animation, fantasy, some comedies) but not usually for musicals. Harry Potter was not only a very profitable franchise but it didn't have much competition on its week of release ( hogging 4285 screens) whereas Hairspray will be distributed in only the second most number of screens ( 3000) on its weekend of release ( the most number are allocated to a comedy with 3200 screens - I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry). Plus Harry Potter will still be strong on its second week of release, partly helped by the strong interest on its final book soon due for release.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/schedule/?view=bydate&release=all&date=2007-07-06&showweeks=4&p=.htm

But maybe early good buzz for HAIRSPRAY will give it excellent box office results, which hopefully will also carry over to the other musicals opening in late 2007 ( SWEENEY TODD on limited release in December and wide release in January 2008 - check out the same site for the schedule for those months) and in 2008 ( MAMMA MIA in midyear).

IAMmyownMUSICAL - You do know that a movie can make $30 million in one week, right?

I think it will do alright, but I can't see it doing better than Harry Potter.

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As much as I like Hairspray, it will not do as well as Harry Potter. Harry Potter is wayyyyy more popular than Hairspray. I have faith that the Hairspray movie will be a success, but won't have a total gross equal to what Harry Potter has and will make.

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That's because every teen girl (and woman) had a crush on Leonardo DiCaprio, who is a much more high-profile actor than Zac Efron (who would be a main reason why teen girls would flock to see this).

Not to mention the Titanic was a very famous/well-known event.

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Updated On: 7/16/07 at 09:46 AM

Of course it won't do better than Harry Potter. Harry Potter is probably going to be the most successful movie this year.
You should compare it to movies in the same league... for example, will it break $100 million like Dreamgirls? It may appeal to a wider base of people than Dreamgirls did, but it's not awards season like it was for Dreamgirls.
Also, do not underestimate the power of Zac Efron. It's not teen girls he is popular with, it's PRE-teen girls... I'm talkin the 10-13 year olds. I don't know if you guys all know how big a deal High School Musical was with this group.

My Nieces are basically not sleeping until they see Hairspray Friday Afternoon. They older one bought the Broadway cast album because she couldn't wait for the Soundtrack. There is some Zac Efron Frenzy involved.

I think/hope it will do well, but with the extra built-in buzz for the last Potter book coming out this week, Phoenix will continue to well at the box office. I don't think Harispray will come close, but that doesn't mean it will not be a success.

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My bet is that it'll do better on DVD than in release. That's where it'll make its serious money.

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"Also, do not underestimate the power of Zac Efron. It's not teen girls he is popular with, it's PRE-teen girls... I'm talkin the 10-13 year olds. I don't know if you guys all know how big a deal High School Musical was with this group"

Agreed. Zac is probably one of the biggest (if not THE biggest) male star for that demographic right now, which is generating a lot of excitement for the release of the movie. I have a feeling a lot of parents will be toting carloads of pre-teen girls to the multiplex this weekend...

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I am hoping it will do well because it's the first film for Michelle Pfeiffer in 5 years. Also, it's because of partly John and mostly Zac. I really do hope it does well. My youth group has 6 adults and they are taking 20+ teens and about 10+ pre-teen girls/guys to see it on Friday. That may bring in some money because its $7 bucks a ticket. Don't forget those hungry kids! lol