HAIRSPRAY at the Box Office...

[jacobsnchz14]

Posted: 7/16/07 at 2:24am

Do you think that HAIRSPRAY can top HARRY POTTER AND THE ORDER OF THE PHOENIX at the Box Office?? HARRY POTTER has already brought in $77.4 million... can HAIRSPRAY do that good. Not that I'm saying it can't. I just want to hear your opinions.

[Burning_Oasis]

Posted: 7/16/07 at 2:30am

Although I want the movie to make tons, it has some tough competition. I bet it will probably gross about 30-45 million opening weekend.

[scott68]

Posted: 7/16/07 at 2:42am

"Can" it? Yes. Will it? Highly unlikely. Though it has a great cast and a decent pedigree, it doesn't have the established "name" that Harry Potter has, even if the movies have been somewhat uneven at the very best. I'd say Burning_Oasis is about right, if a little liberal in his estimates.

[jo]

Posted: 7/16/07 at 2:57am

Box office windfalls usually happen for tentpole movies ( e.g., action, animation, fantasy, some comedies) but not usually for musicals. Harry Potter was not only a very profitable franchise but it didn't have much competition on its week of release ( hogging 4285 screens) whereas Hairspray will be distributed in only the second most number of screens ( 3000) on its weekend of release ( the most number are allocated to a comedy with 3200 screens - I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry). Plus Harry Potter will still be strong on its second week of release, partly helped by the strong interest on its final book soon due for release.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/schedule/?view=bydate&release=all&date=2007-07-06&showweeks=4&p=.htm

But maybe early good buzz for HAIRSPRAY will give it excellent box office results, which hopefully will also carry over to the other musicals opening in late 2007 ( SWEENEY TODD on limited release in December and wide release in January 2008 - check out the same site for the schedule for those months) and in 2008 ( MAMMA MIA in midyear).

[IAMmyownMUSICAL]

Posted: 7/16/07 at 5:17am

I dont think Hairpsray will be a big box office hit at all....maybe 30-40 million TOTAL for the entire movie theater run

[Yankeefan007]

Posted: 7/16/07 at 8:12am

IAMmyownMUSICAL - You do know that a movie can make $30 million in one week, right?

[HBBrock]

Posted: 7/16/07 at 8:13am

Hairspray is going to be big with BroadwayWorld people....but nationally....I think it does mediocre at best.

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 7/16/07 at 8:13am

I think it will do alright, but I can't see it doing better than Harry Potter.

[biggest CHENO fan]

Posted: 7/16/07 at 9:03am

I think that it will do suprisingly well. Not that it wouldn't do well, but better then we all expect....

[millie_dillmount]

Posted: 7/16/07 at 9:26am

As much as I like Hairspray, it will not do as well as Harry Potter. Harry Potter is wayyyyy more popular than Hairspray. I have faith that the Hairspray movie will be a success, but won't have a total gross equal to what Harry Potter has and will make.

[the_gambler3]

Posted: 7/16/07 at 9:35am

Never underestimate the power of teen girls. They made Titanic the number one grossing movie of all time (over 600 million domestic). If they go repeatedly, Hairspray will be something to reckon with.

[millie_dillmount]

Posted: 7/16/07 at 9:46am

That's because every teen girl (and woman) had a crush on Leonardo DiCaprio, who is a much more high-profile actor than Zac Efron (who would be a main reason why teen girls would flock to see this).

Not to mention the Titanic was a very famous/well-known event.

Updated On: 7/16/07 at 09:46 AM

[SueleenGay]

Posted: 7/16/07 at 9:52am

Better than HP? I would be surprised if it does better than I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry.

[phantom8019]

Posted: 7/16/07 at 10:25am

Of course it won't do better than Harry Potter. Harry Potter is probably going to be the most successful movie this year.
You should compare it to movies in the same league... for example, will it break $100 million like Dreamgirls? It may appeal to a wider base of people than Dreamgirls did, but it's not awards season like it was for Dreamgirls.
Also, do not underestimate the power of Zac Efron. It's not teen girls he is popular with, it's PRE-teen girls... I'm talkin the 10-13 year olds. I don't know if you guys all know how big a deal High School Musical was with this group.

[RobbO]

Posted: 7/16/07 at 10:33am

i'd be very surprised if it makes over $20 million its first weekend, and over $70 million total (domestic) for its entire run.

Posted: 7/16/07 at 10:38am

My Nieces are basically not sleeping until they see Hairspray Friday Afternoon. They older one bought the Broadway cast album because she couldn't wait for the Soundtrack. There is some Zac Efron Frenzy involved.

[songanddanceman2]

Posted: 7/16/07 at 10:45am

I have a feeling this is going to do very well, early reviews have been strong , the cast is well liked by all groups of people, the posters and ads are really well done and as one critic said its a great respite from all the over blown second rate cgi movies and sequels this summer.

The show hasnt opened here in the UK yet they is already a massive buzz surrounding hairspray(film) here.

I think the film will easily step over the $100 million mark

[madbrian]

Posted: 7/16/07 at 10:48am

I think/hope it will do well, but with the extra built-in buzz for the last Potter book coming out this week, Phoenix will continue to well at the box office. I don't think Harispray will come close, but that doesn't mean it will not be a success.

[Pippin]

Posted: 7/16/07 at 11:01am

Hairspray is not an event movie, like the harry potters, die hards, or transformers. most people will not be breaking down the doors to see this one. I will also be shocked if it makes over 20 mil the first weekend, but I do think that if the movie is enjoyable, with good word of mouth, people will trickle in through the next few weeks when they find the time.

If your looking for it to break some records or something, go look someplace else.

[SeanMartin]

Posted: 7/16/07 at 11:22am

My bet is that it'll do better on DVD than in release. That's where it'll make its serious money.

[Fosse76]

Posted: 7/16/07 at 11:28am

"My bet is that it'll do better on DVD than in release. That's where it'll make its serious money."

That's like betting tomorrow that Spring Awakening won the Tony for best musical. ALL films do better once released on DVD. In fact, the only thing keeping movies from direct-to-DVD is tradition and the strong exhibitor lobby.

[LoringsGuy]

Posted: 7/16/07 at 12:19pm

"Also, do not underestimate the power of Zac Efron. It's not teen girls he is popular with, it's PRE-teen girls... I'm talkin the 10-13 year olds. I don't know if you guys all know how big a deal High School Musical was with this group"

Agreed. Zac is probably one of the biggest (if not THE biggest) male star for that demographic right now, which is generating a lot of excitement for the release of the movie. I have a feeling a lot of parents will be toting carloads of pre-teen girls to the multiplex this weekend...

[me2]

Posted: 7/16/07 at 8:30pm

I think HAIRSPRAY really has the potential to hit a nerve with teens. Only time will see, but I think it has such great popular appeal. Plus, John Travolta's last movie, WILD HOGS, got generally bad reviews and made over $150. While this doesn't have the same appeal, it does have Queen Latifah and Zac Efron and other big names stars with appeal in different demo groups.

Minumim, it will do $60, but I have a feeling it will do well. I know a number of people who either don't go to movies or don't care for musicals who want to see it.
Broadway Blog: 50 Amazing Broadway Performers in 50 Weekdays (Are your favs on the list?)

[jacobsnchz14]

Posted: 7/16/07 at 9:40pm

I am hoping it will do well because it's the first film for Michelle Pfeiffer in 5 years. Also, it's because of partly John and mostly Zac. I really do hope it does well. My youth group has 6 adults and they are taking 20+ teens and about 10+ pre-teen girls/guys to see it on Friday. That may bring in some money because its $7 bucks a ticket. Don't forget those hungry kids! lol

[Scarywarhol]

Posted: 7/16/07 at 9:48pm

My prediction:

OW: $28 million
Very good legs
Total: $120 million

People will love this film.