Handicapping 2016/2017 Best Musical

We do NOT "seem to have enough information on all the new musicals coming in this season." Crawl back into your burrow for a few months.

I guess you don't pay attention to out of town and London reviews and buzz. Crawl? Thank you for that.

Agreed on the possible change of heart or product but it's rare when a show gets a wholesale change between tryouts and Broadway. Groundhogs reviews including those from American reviewers seems to make it a no brainer. Of all the others only Come From Away has gotten consistent quality buzz. The rest seem to have issues.

Too early to say. Yes many of the springs new musicals have had runs elsewhere, but shows can change a lot before opening night in New York. There is very good buzz coming out of CTG on AMELIE so that might be one to watch out for.

Obviously, COMET and EVAN HANSEN will be nominated in lots of catagories.

It'll be an interesting race, though I'm very much looking forward to what's coming in the spring. As for the DEH versus Great Comet debate, I absolutely love both shows and think they're totally brilliant in each respect. However, I think parts of both DEH's book and score are a bit trite, and while Great Comet's production value is mindbogglingly good, the show itself doesn't really leave you with an emotional imprint/a storyline to write home about. Those are two shortcomings I think will definitely play a hand in deciding Best Musical, but we'll have to see the strength of the other contenders come April!

I'd say the two locks right now are DEAR EVAN HANSEN & COME FROM AWAY. With the amount of new musicals this season, the nominations should include 5 shows.

Updated On: 12/4/16 at 10:57 AM

ACL2006 said: "I'd say the two locks right now are DEAR EVAN HANSEN & COME FROM AWAY. With the amount of new musicals this season, the nominations should include 5 shows.

2016 had 5 nominees, so I don't see why 2017 can't have 5 as well. "





That's not how it works. There is only a 5th nominee if there are 3 or fewer points between the 4th and 5th place finisher, based on nominators voting for 4.

It is a new show but not a new property. The Admin committee has not ruled on it. RTC is calling it new.

I agree that it's too early to say but based on the limited information, I think the creative awards races will be less interesting than the performance categories if they make it a fair fight.

In Transit will probably have been forgotten long before nominations.

There is nothing award-worthy about In Transit.

While I agree that DEH and Great Comet seem the likeliest locks so far, but then we have War Paint, Amelie, Anastasia, Groundhog Day, and Come From Away that all have respectable reviews from pre-Broadway productions. I could frankly see any combination of those, and I can imagine this might be another 5-nominee year because there are so many quality shows coming in that nominators might be split.

Each show does have weaknesses, though, and I think it's a matter of how well the creatives can mask them and how much the critics hone in on them. War Paint is a dual-diva narrative and a star vehicle whose structure and storytelling were lukewarmly reviewed. Amelie is a very specific tone that may come across as either charming or twee. Anastasia needs rewrites, especially to its antagonist, and has to overcome the animation stigma. Groundhog Day, by its very nature, has to overcome the repetitive structure, and Come From Away, if politically and emotionally resonant, was noted to suffer from low-stakes-syndrome.

It's too early to tell how any of these will fare, although I would lean towards CFA, Anastasia, and Amelie at the moment, but that's liable to change when this barrage hits in the spring! I envy you NY'ers :)