Historic viewership for Tony Awards telecast?

[Jish]

Posted: 5/9/16 at 4:09pm

Given the extraordinary hype around Hamilton I would think this year's show has the potential to be the most watched ever. 

Some metrics from recent years from these articles:

http://variety.com/2015/tv/news/ratings-tony-awards-cbs-nba-finals-abc-1201514469/

http://variety.com/2013/tv/news/tonys-on-cbs-above-7-million-for-first-time-in-four-years-1200494629/

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/culturemonster/2011/06/cbs-sees-slight-increase-in-tony-awards-ratings.html

2007 - 6.22 million

2008 - 6.27 million

2009 - 7.43 million

2010 - 7.0 million

2011 - 6.9 million

2012 - 6.01 million

2013 - 7.2 million

2014 - 7.05 million

2015 - 6.35 million 

So do we have any predictions for this year's viewership?

Also - do we think if the number is quite large (say 10 million-ish) that it will make a meaningful difference in the size of the bump for shows that perform on the telecast?

[HogansHero]

Posted: 5/9/16 at 4:49pm

9 million

[Mr Roxy]

Posted: 5/9/16 at 4:51pm

It might. No way to know . We shall all find out together

[BroadwayConcierge]

Posted: 5/9/16 at 4:59pm

I'm predicting mid-to-high 8 millions. Would be shocked if it didn't break the record.

[Broadwaystar2]

Posted: 5/9/16 at 5:00pm

I don't think Hamilton alone will be responsible for the hike. There will be a LARGE demographic of viewers that don't normally watch because of the diversity of shows this year. 

[Wick3]

Posted: 5/9/16 at 5:01pm

Jish said: "Given the extraordinary hype around Hamilton I would think this year's show has the potential to be the most watched ever. 

Some metrics from recent years from these articles:

http://variety.com/2015/tv/news/ratings-tony-awards-cbs-nba-finals-abc-1201514469/

http://variety.com/2013/tv/news/tonys-on-cbs-above-7-million-for-first-time-in-four-years-1200494629/

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/culturemonster/2011/06/cbs-sees-slight-increase-in-tony-awards-ratings.html

2007 - 6.22 million

2008 - 6.27 million

2009 - 7.43 million

2010 - 7.0 million

2011 - 6.9 million

2012 - 6.01 million

2013 - 7.2 million

2014 - 7.05 million

2015 - 6.35 million 

So do we have any predictions for this year's viewership?"

Book of Mormon was had a lot of buzz back in 2011 and was the hot ticket on Broadway --- yet Tony viewership did not top 7 million. Neil Patrick Harris was the host and even did a closing rap written by LMM. 

Back in 2004 all the shows nominated for Best Musical were amazing (Wicked, Avenue Q, Caroline or Change, Boy from Oz) yet viewership was only around 6 million. 

From checking the numbers of other years here:

http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2010/06/13/tony-awards-ratings-history/

viewership was easily over 10 million back in the 90s (perhaps because youtube/TiVo weren't invented yet?) Even with all the hype of Hamilton, I think viewership will be between 6-7 million.

 

[BroadwayConcierge]

Posted: 5/9/16 at 5:04pm

Can someone explain why the 2009 telecast saw such high viewership?

[aaaaaa15]

Posted: 5/9/16 at 5:05pm

I don't think it will beat the record. However, the difference between this year and the years of TBOM and Wicked is that Hamilton has had almost 18 months non-stop to build up this hype. TBOM in particular had only been open 3 months by the time the Tonys happened. Also, I guess this is a matter of perspective, but I think Hamilton's hype has exceeded that of the aforementioned shows.

[woeisme3]

Posted: 5/9/16 at 5:19pm

BroadwayConcierge said: "Can someone explain why the 2009 telecast saw such high viewership?

 

"

2009 was the first time NPH hosted and was filled with commercial shows (Billy Elliot, Shrek, Rock of Ages, West Side Story, 9 to 5, Guys and Dolls)

[HogansHero]

Posted: 5/9/16 at 5:29pm

@Broadwaystar2 what diversity are you referring to? It seems to me it is a pretty typical year other than Hamilton. 

@wick3 there is no comparison between the BOM buzz and Hamilton. They are not even on the same planet buzz-wise. I don't think people here fully appreciate the penetration. 

[pupscotch]

Posted: 5/9/16 at 6:07pm

HogansHero said: "@Broadwaystar2 what diversity are you referring to? It seems to me it is a pretty typical year other than Hamilton.

 

"

I think it's because people like Sara Barellies have musicals out this season, and people will tune in to watch that performance. 

[HogansHero]

Posted: 5/9/16 at 6:37pm

as opposed to previous seasons in which far bigger songwriters had musicals out? 

[Scarywarhol]

Posted: 5/9/16 at 6:44pm

I'm going to agree with HogansHero. 9 million sounds right, and that's me trying to curb my hype-meter.

 

Never in my life has a show opened so early, gained such unbelievable widespread attention, and captured so many fans across the country through a cast album. Book of Mormon certainly has nothing on that; in fact, the Tony performance was a firsts glimpse even for many theatre enthusiasts I know. 

 

Marketing is certainly going to focus on this.

Updated On: 5/9/16 at 06:44 PM

[CATSNYrevival]

Posted: 5/9/16 at 6:46pm

Is CBS offering any additional advertising that highlights the fact that there will be a performance from Hamilton? If not, I don't see how we can expect there to be that much of a difference from previous years.

[HogansHero]

Posted: 5/9/16 at 6:51pm

@CATSNY you can bet the farm on it. 

[sarahb22]

Posted: 5/9/16 at 6:58pm

Out of curiosity, what were the Grammy viewership numbers this year, as compared to past years? That might be something of a barometer, since they showed a live performance of Hamilton's opening number.

[CATSNYrevival]

Posted: 5/9/16 at 6:59pm

I also think it's a mistake for shows like Waitress and Tuck Everlasting not to have their cast albums up on iTunes before the telecast or at least be up for pre-order. That's if Tuck is even still open and pays for the performance but I think it could only benefit each show that performs since you can get tickets to those shows and no one can get tickets to Hamilton.

[Scarywarhol]

Posted: 5/9/16 at 7:00pm

I don't think that's a good comparison. If anything, the Tonys would be borrowing regular Grammy viewers.

[TerrenceIsTheMann]

Posted: 5/9/16 at 7:01pm

This should be a big year. You have Hamilton, School of Rock, Shuffle Along, Long Day's Journey Into Night, Bright Star, Color Purple, She Loves Me, Eclipsed, Waitress, The Crucible and Blackbird which all feature big names either cast or creatively. LMM, Groff, the whole cast of Hamilton, Audra MD, Brian Stokes Mitchell, Billy Porter, ALW, Jessica Lange, Michael Shannon, Steve Martin, Danielle Brooks, (maybe JHUD?), Zach Levi, Jane Krakowski, Lupita N'yongo, Sara Bareilles, Saoirse Ronan, Jeff Daniels, Michelle Williams and others I'm sure through presenters and performers. Also, James Corden is a much better choice for a host than last year. 

[aaaaaa15]

Posted: 5/9/16 at 7:07pm

Scarywarhol said: "I don't think that's a good comparison. If anything, the Tonys would be borrowing regular Grammy viewers."

I agree. I also think that the Hamilton hype really took on another level after the Grammys. That's when the cancellation line started to get ridiculous, the show became completely sold out through non-resale methods etc. 

[HogansHero]

Posted: 5/9/16 at 7:21pm

@Terrence if past is prologue none of those people attract viewers. The only thing I see on the landscape that will draw people is the performance from Hamilton because the producers have been very parsimonious about showing people what the big deal is. 

[BroadwayConcierge]

Posted: 5/9/16 at 7:31pm

James Corden as a host will absolutely be a draw.

[Scarywarhol]

Posted: 5/9/16 at 7:33pm

HogansHero said: "@Terrence if past is prologue none of those people attract viewers. The only thing I see on the landscape that will draw people is the performance from Hamilton because the producers have been very parsimonious about showing people what the big deal is. 

 

"

Interesting point. Even the key art and all of the theatre's exterior decoration is intended to keep a feeling of exclusivity and mystery to it.

 

[aaaaaa15]

Posted: 5/9/16 at 7:37pm

Really think a James Corden/Lin-Manuel Miranda carpool karaoke would be a great thing to show/advertise. 

[HogansHero]

Posted: 5/9/16 at 7:47pm

re Corden 

He is the host of a TV show that in a good week has 1.25 million viewers. If NPH in his prime moved the needle very little, do you seriously think Corden is a draw?