How About Some VERY Preliminary Tony Predictions: 2011- Page 2

[themysteriousgrowl]

Posted: 12/18/10 at 8:03pm

It's only half over!

[adamgreer]

Posted: 12/18/10 at 8:21pm

If Aaron Tveit gets anywhere near the reviews he got for Catch Me when it was out of town, he'll definitely be nominated, and would have to be considered a serious contender to win.

[Mattbrain]

Posted: 12/18/10 at 9:12pm

Kinda bummed you guys don't think Sister Act's gonna get a nod for Best Score. Just sayin'.

[theatreguy]

Posted: 12/18/10 at 10:10pm

A few possibilities (for the musicals anyway, I know even less about the new plays coming this spring, while at least most of the musicals have either opened or been seen in a prior production):

BEST MUSICAL
The Book of Mormon
Catch Me If You Can
Priscilla, Queen of the Desert
Sister Act

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
Anything Goes
How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL
The Book of Mormon – Robert Lopez, Trey Parker & Matt Stone
Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson – Alex Timbers
Catch Me If You Can – Terrence McNally & Brian Yorkey
Sister Act - Cheri & Bill Steinkellner(/Douglas Carter Beane?)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Book of Mormon – Robert Lopez, Trey Parker & Matt Stone
Catch Me If You Can – Marc Shaiman & Scott Wittman
The Scottsboro Boys – John Kander & Fred Ebb
Sister Act – Alan Menken & Glenn Slater

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A LEADING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Norbert Leo Butz – Catch Me If You Can
Daniel Radcliffe – How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Andrew Rannells - The Book of Mormon
Tony Sheldon – Priscilla, Queen of the Desert
Aaron Tveit – Catch Me If You Can

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A LEADING ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Janet Dacal - Wonderland
Sutton Foster – Anything Goes
Rose Hemingway – How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Donna Murphy – The People in the Picture
Patina Miller – Sister Act

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Nick Adams – Priscilla, Queen of the Desert
Joel Grey – Anything Goes
Christopher J. Hanke – How to Succeeed in Business Without Really Trying
John Larroquette – How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Tom Wopat – Catch Me If You Can

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Laura Benanti – Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
Kerry Butler – Catch Me If You Can
Nikki M. James - The Book of Mormon
Jessica Stone - Anything Goes
[Mother Superior] - Sister Act

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
Rob Ashford – How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Kathleen Marshall – Anything Goes
Jerry Mitchell – Catch Me If You Can
Susan Stroman – The Scottsboro Boys

BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL
Kathleen Marshall – Anything Goes
Casey Nicholaw & Trey Parker – The Book of Mormon
Jack O’Brien – Catch Me If You Can
Jerry Zaks – Sister Act

[ontheboards2]

Posted: 12/18/10 at 10:13pm

I'm not so sure of a Robin Williams Bengal Tiger nod. To me that play already seems out of date and gimmicky.

I certainly can't picture him actually winning in a Broadway debut over Pacino knocking Shakespeare out of the park. If Rylance does Jerusalem (and that is not as much of a sure thing for this season as was made out a few weeks ago by any means), he could win.

Otherwise, Pacino and Lily Rabe especially sewed up those awards awfully early I think.

[GimmeABreak2]

Posted: 12/18/10 at 11:54pm

What's going on with Jerusalem, ontheboards?

I totally agree about Rabe in her category.

[alterego]

Posted: 12/19/10 at 4:08am

And for Costume Design? The winner will be hands down, PRISCILLA.

[ontheboards2]

Posted: 12/19/10 at 8:19am

Rylance has some things to resolve with getting that production over here. It's a bit of messy legal stuff. He clearly wants to do it, and I'd say the odds are better than 50/50 but it is not a guarantee by any means.

If Rylance comes over and does it, it will be a fascinating race between him and Pacino (unless there's something else bravura out there I'm not considering?)

Rylance was spectacular when I saw him in Jerusalem, but, I don't think that's a very good play personally, and he has a win under his belt just recently, so that could count against (though it shouldn't).

Pacino I think would still have a chance to win even with an (expected) Rylance tour de force. I say that because, it's his presence that's turned Merchant into a ticket selling powerhouse, he has a rich legacy, and it's a bit of a career summation in a way.

Pacino however won't be on stage at the time of presentation I suspect, so that to me tips the scales in Rylance's favor, all other things being fairly equal.

But, to me, this is a 2 man race this season, if Rylance is indeed running in it (for Jerusalem I mean - he would not win for La Bete, though he was smashing).

[mee.who]

Posted: 12/19/10 at 9:40am

I thought Tony Sheldon was great in Priscilla and should definitely be nominated, but wouldn't he be considered featured, not lead? Or even if you do put him in the lead category, I don't think you can then put Swenson into featured. Swenson is the first name listed and has the last bow of the night in that show, so I doubt they would put him in for consideration as featured actor in a musical.

[bjh2114]

Posted: 12/19/10 at 9:44am

Swenson has the last bow? Interesting. In London, Bernadette has the last bow, not Tick.

Swenson and Sheldon are definitely leading. Nick Adams could go either way. If the producers are smart, they will petition him to be featured (and not make the same mistake the producers of 9 to 5 made with Megan Hilty).

[Smaxie]

Posted: 12/19/10 at 9:45am

For precedent sake, Sheldon was nominated in the lead category for the 2010 Olivier Awards.

[bjh2114]

Posted: 12/19/10 at 9:51am

Also, in response to "I thought about Joshua Henry but is he in the leading category? If so, I figured they'd give it to John first."

John Cullum was ruled featured by the committee last week. (Rather, his name is under the title, and he wasn't promoted to leading.) Joshua Henry will be the only person from Scottsboro Boys eligible in that category.

[mee.who]

Posted: 12/19/10 at 9:53am

Huh, interesting. I could definitely see them nominating Tony Sheldon as lead (and think he would beat out Will Swenson for the nomination there, though I thought Swenson was also fantastic in Priscilla), but yeah, Swenson definitely had the last bow in Toronto.

[bjh2114]

Posted: 12/19/10 at 9:54am

Smaxie, what you mean "for precedent sake"?

[Smaxie]

Posted: 12/19/10 at 9:56am

That the Oliviers put Sheldon in the leading category, rather than featured.

[bjh2114]

Posted: 12/19/10 at 10:11am

Right. I thought you meant that the Oliviers did that BECAUSE of a precedent. Did you mean that the Tonys will probably do that since the precedent has been set BY the Oliviers?

[Smaxie]

Posted: 12/19/10 at 10:28am

I meant that his role was considered leading in London and that the producers may decide for him to be considered the same here.

[justafan2]

Posted: 12/19/10 at 11:47am

This is a question, not a comment. I can't believe I'm not sure of this, but----can an actor win "Best Actor in a Musical" if the Musical is up for Best Revival and not Best Musical? I'm pretty sure the answer is yes---because Joel Grey has been listed here as one of the possibilities and "Anything Goes" will be a revival, but...

[themysteriousgrowl]

Posted: 12/19/10 at 11:57am

Yes, they can, with a possible codicil being that replacements cannot be nominated in performance categories (provded, of course, the show has already cycled through one Tony Awards season).

For example, CZJ won Best Actress in a Musical last year for ALNM, but Bernadette is not eligible in the same category this year.

[quizking101]

Posted: 12/19/10 at 12:34pm

After seeing BLOODY BLOODY ANDREW JACKSON yesterday and LOVING it...I hope it earns AT LEAST these nominations.

*Best Musical
*Best Actor In A Musical - Benjamin Walker
*Best Featured Actress in a Musical - Kristine Nielsen
*Best Book
*Best Score
*Best Scenic Design (I mean, have you seen the theatre? That is commitment to the theme)

[desiree armfeldt]

Posted: 12/19/10 at 1:38pm

It's unfortunate that Peters and Stritch wont be eligible at all

I think best featured actress in a musical is ABSOLUTELY going to Benanti.

[ljay889]

Posted: 12/19/10 at 1:41pm

Kinda bummed you guys don't think Sister Act's gonna get a nod for Best Score. Just sayin'.

The score is bubblegum pop: catchy and fun with some terrible lyrics. If Yazbek doesn't get nominated for Women on the Verge, then Sister Act shouldn't be either. WOTV's score is at least a league better than Sister Act's.

[ljay889]

Posted: 12/19/10 at 1:41pm

double. Updated On: 12/19/10 at 01:41 PM

[Mattbrain]

Posted: 12/19/10 at 2:15pm

"The score is bubblegum pop: catchy and fun with some terrible lyrics. If Yazbek doesn't get nominated for Women on the Verge, then Sister Act shouldn't be either. WOTV's score is at least a league better than Sister Act's."

This is true.

[Orangesaretuesdays]

Posted: 12/19/10 at 2:55pm

hmm I was wondering this the other day and since I don't want to start a whole thread for this, I'll briefly threadjack.

Has any musical won a tony for Best Revival and not a Tony for Best musical (in it's original run)?