I don't know how you could say that IN THE HEIGHTS has the Best Musical Tony in the bag. The race is very wide open at this point, with no clear frontrunner or favorite.
Musicals eligible for Best Musical:
A Catered Affair
Cry-Baby
In the Heights
The Little Mermaid
Passing Strange
Xanadu
Young Frankenstein
Despite the strengths of A CATERED AFFAIR, IN THE HEIGHTS, and PASSING STRANGE - it's slim pickings. There are 7 eligible musicals, with 4 slots. IN THE HEIGHTS and PASSING STRANGE are locks, with A CATERED AFFAIR presumably the third. THE LITTLE MERMAID will not be nominated, and things aren't looking good for YOUNG FRANKENSTEIN.
We'll see what the critical response to CRY-BABY will be (though I can't imagine it being great), but smart money goes on XANADU for being the 4th nominee.
Well, after all that, IN THE HEIGHTS does seem to have the edge - but in the bag? Not yet.
"If you are going to do something, do it well. And leave something witchy."
-Charlie Manson