"Haterobics, the "narrative" about it failing has little to do with whether it makes $12 or $15. The movie cost $40 plus marketing. Opening to $15 mil in almost 3000 screens is a sigh that a movie basically has no legs and will fizzle out before breaking even, that's tanking regardless of how you spin it."
That has nothing to do with what I said, though. I was only interested in the narrative.
But to follow your logic, and using the example cited in some articles that Eastwood's J. Edgar did even worse at opening ($11.2M), then let's look at how that movie fared (since that doesn't require predicting the future like Jersey Boys):
J. Edgar had a $35M production budget, and made $37.3M domestic and $47.3M foreign, for a $84.6M total, which explains why Clint and Woody Allen keep making movies without having a "hit" every time. Their films typically don't lose money. And that is before home video, digital downloads, cable, and on and on.
And J. Edgar opened in the #5 spot and never had an uptick after that, it just slowly fell off the charts. Slowly being the key word.
So, that is why I think the narrative is funky. It is all short-sighted and geared around whether the movie will be a monster hit, but completely disregards paying back the studio for the movie as a marker of success.
Updated On: 6/22/14 at 12:01 PM