Likelihood of Expanded Nominations

[quizking101]

Posted: 4/6/24 at 7:46am

Now that awards season is rapidly approaching, I wanted to assess the likelihood that, with a ridiculous amount of new productions having opened on and off Broadway, categories will have an expanded amount of nominees.

For the Drama Desks, if the Lortel nominations are any indication, there are quite a few off Broadway shows that could muscle their way into major categories.

For the Tonys, there are 21 musicals competing for awards (between revivals and new shows), and while I can imagine some will certainly get shut out (I bet on OUAOMT, Harmony, and How To Dance In Ohio), that still leaves A LOT to consider and, aside from CABARET, I can’t think of any other show that would be a nominations runaway.

Thoughts?

[bigbelterbaby]

Posted: 4/6/24 at 9:47am

Not everyone gets a participation award. For 40 years the Tonys only nominated 4 people in each category and only in 2000 did they extend it to 5. The more nominees the less prestigious it is. Yes there are many options but they will have to make these decisions that’s part of their job being on nominating committees. 
 

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[MayAudraBlessYou2]

Posted: 4/6/24 at 9:51am

It's super likely.

The nominating committee starts at 60 people, but will diminish quite a bit as folks will be forced to recuse themselves due to involvement with shows (off the top of my head, I know Rajah Feather Kelly will have to sit this year out since they are with Lempicka, but there are plenty others). So we will likely end up with around 45 nominators. 

That's not a huge number, so ties in voting are already a greater probability. But then you must consider that the Tony rules dont actually require an EXACT tie to expand a category in several cases. For instance, in a category with just 4 or 5 eligible shows, an extra nominee or two can be added if those last place finishers are within 10 percent of each other (which can translate to a "tie" within about 3 votes). 

Considering the lack of consensus in a very wide musical field, I think ties in voting are very likely. 

[Jarethan]

Posted: 4/6/24 at 11:49am

Wouldn’t the fact that most of the musicals so far have either flopped and closed, or gotten very mixed reviews, be a factor?  Seems to me that there has been no musical so far that would have been even nominated for musical in a strong year.  Even HLL, which probably got the best reviews so far for ‘new’ musicals, closed so long ago that in a strong season it probably would have been forgotten.

based on feedback from this board and past reviews, I am not expecting any of the remaining musicals, with the possible exception of The Outsiders, to get better than mixed reviews.  
 

 

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 4/6/24 at 12:24pm

quizking101 said: "aside from CABARET, I can’t think of any other show that would be a nominations runaway."

Merrily We Roll Along says hi

[Jarethan]

Posted: 4/6/24 at 12:51pm

Mr. Wormwood said: "quizking101 said: "aside from CABARET, I can’t think of any other show that would be a nominations runaway."

Merrily We Roll Along says hi"

I was assuming he was figuring that Merrily would not get any technical nominations, whereas Cabaret would get nominated for them all.