Likelihood of Expanded Nominations

Now that awards season is rapidly approaching, I wanted to assess the likelihood that, with a ridiculous amount of new productions having opened on and off Broadway, categories will have an expanded amount of nominees.

For the Drama Desks, if the Lortel nominations are any indication, there are quite a few off Broadway shows that could muscle their way into major categories.

For the Tonys, there are 21 musicals competing for awards (between revivals and new shows), and while I can imagine some will certainly get shut out (I bet on OUAOMT, Harmony, and How To Dance In Ohio), that still leaves A LOT to consider and, aside from CABARET, I can’t think of any other show that would be a nominations runaway.

Thoughts?

It's super likely.

The nominating committee starts at 60 people, but will diminish quite a bit as folks will be forced to recuse themselves due to involvement with shows (off the top of my head, I know Rajah Feather Kelly will have to sit this year out since they are with Lempicka, but there are plenty others). So we will likely end up with around 45 nominators.

That's not a huge number, so ties in voting are already a greater probability. But then you must consider that the Tony rules dont actually require an EXACT tie to expand a category in several cases. For instance, in a category with just 4 or 5 eligible shows, an extra nominee or two can be added if those last place finishers are within 10 percent of each other (which can translate to a "tie" within about 3 votes).

Considering the lack of consensus in a very wide musical field, I think ties in voting are very likely.

quizking101 said: "aside from CABARET, I can’t think of any other show that would be a nominations runaway."

Merrily We Roll Along says hi