Michael Musto's Tony Predictions- Page 6

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 11/29/06 at 8:01pm

what part of my allusion to the 88 oscar race do you not get, rath? my point is that when a performance of that greatness comes along, you know the race for the award is over. when rain man opened, everyone knew hoffman was going to win.

I know people like a good horse race. I know people want their fave to have a chance. I think debra monk is very talented and a funny, classy lady, too. in fact, i've met all of these women who are up for the nomination and think they are all super brilliant and lovely.

none of that changes what I believe to be a 100% inevitability that ebersole will win and a 99% inevitability that wilson will.

sorry.

[Rathnait62]

Posted: 11/29/06 at 8:06pm

What I don't get is how EVERYONE knew that Hoffman was going to win as soon as Rain Man opened. We didn't.

Secondly, I have not said anywhere that Monk is going to win. I'm saying it IS a horse race - there is major competition this year, and we have yet to see most of it. To predict with 100% certainty that someone is going to win is impossible and uninformed.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 11/29/06 at 8:15pm

tell that to people who win big betting this early in the game. I understand the logic that one can't say until all shows have opened. but that's not how prediction games flow.

if I end up being wrong, you can proudly throw a parade on here on how wrong jerby was. I know nothing would give you more joy. oops. I better not be so hyperbolic--goodness knows there are a couple of things you'd get more joy out of. but seeing me wrong or defeated is certainly up on your list. and I am deeply honored. truly.

you know full well that when I said everyone, I meant consensus--not literally every one. and, yes, every single person who I saw discuss the oscar race that year said hoffman would win. there wasn't a doubt. it was one of the few times a consensus seemed so absolute. if this doesn't meet with your recollections, I do apologize.

[Rathnait62]

Posted: 11/29/06 at 8:57pm

It's not about proving you wrong if Ebersole wins - don't give yourself so much credit. And nowhere did I say NO WAY WILL CHRISTINE EBERSOLE WIN.

I'm just saying - we don't and can't know yet.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 11/29/06 at 9:30pm

well now that's true of pretty much anything--we can't know something until it happens. it doesn't stop or negate our having certainty about something. it's an opinion with risk. I just believe that risk is zilch.

you don't have to like it. that's perfectly ok.

and trust me, darlin, that I would never be so presumptious to claim a single ounce of a role in her winning. you just love to put words in people's mouths, don't you?

[blaxx]

Posted: 11/29/06 at 9:37pm

We don't know she will win, but it is certain that all odds are on her side. So, it is not inappropiate to say she is already pretty much the winner at this time. As other shows open, this might change, but is doubtful... most reviews were more like love letters to her performance.

[Rathnait62]

Posted: 11/29/06 at 9:56pm

jrb, stop baiting for chrissake and discuss like an adult.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 11/29/06 at 10:16pm

dear ms. pot,

that is rich!!

sincerely,

mr. kettle

[Rathnait62]

Posted: 11/29/06 at 10:18pm

Very adult discussion, indeed.

Good night.

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 11/29/06 at 10:24pm

[nobodyhome]

Posted: 11/29/06 at 11:34pm

I've been reading reviews of Broadway shows for more than 40 years and I don't think I've ever read reviews like Ebersole's.

Personally, I think her reviews have been a little excessive. But it would be quite a shock if she didn't win. I think a win for her is as close to definite as these things get, even with the likely competition of critics' and audience darlings McDonald, Murphy, and Chenoweth.

Having said that, Chenoweth's role is surely a tour de force also in its nature, as Ebersole's is. But I think that any Tony voters still around who saw Barbara Harris are going to find Chenoweth a bit wanting in the acting department. Unless Chenoweth is a lot better than she was at Encores, she won't be serious competition. (I do think she'll probably be at least somewhat better, but not enough to provide real competition for Ebersole.)

And though Lizzie is a great role, it's not the kind of tour de force that Big Edie/Little Edie is. Really, it's the kind of role that doesn't come along often, a role designed to win the Tony for an actress.