My Disney Prediction

[ORPHAN]

Posted: 12/2/03 at 1:34am

I predict that Disney will make an offer to one of the big family theater owners (Shuberts, Nedderlanders, etc) for their houses. Disney cant really move their big plan forward without company owned theaters. They are coming with Mary Poppins and other major big investment musicals. Furthermore, they have a wealth of wholly owned properties that have the potential to make as much if not more money than the current offerings. I believe they are fully willing to turn broadway into a Disney outpost like Vegas was to the mob in the early days. If they get control of the Shubert houses that will be tantimount to buying ABC in the TV content and distribution matrix. They have content in theater the next step is to own the distribution and not have to pay rent. If this happens and it is likely already in closed door negotiations, no non disney show will be allowed onto the stage of Disney owned and controlled theaters. This will effectively reduce the opportunities for creative professionals (composers, writers, etc) other than the always needed actors. If Disney follows it's mandate and history once they see success in an industry they will no doubt move to control it.

[DavidMegg]

Posted: 12/2/03 at 1:41am

While I agree with part of your prediction (I do believe the will purchase some theatres), I don't think they will keep a theatre empty if they can't fill it with a Disney show, hence other shows and creators still have the opportunity to rent their spaces. It'd be bad business if they didn't.
Just my 2 cents...
david.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 12/2/03 at 1:43am

I bet eventually they will build new theatres--I can just see them building a brand new Disney hotel with one.

[ORPHAN]

Posted: 12/2/03 at 1:43am

one follow up to my post: Clearly should Disney buy the Shubert or major holdings, they will gradually eliminate other non disney shows. The full plan to go totally vertical will take time (as lasting shows take time to develop) but it is my belief that this outcome is enivitable.

[ORPHAN]

Posted: 12/2/03 at 1:58am

as for the suggestion that Disney will buy "some" theaters, i am fairly certain that "some" theaters are not for sale. If I controlled the Shubert houses I wouldn't sell a portion of my holdings. The money is in divesting of the entire portfolio. I continue to believe that the Shuberts are the target because they have a cozy relationship with Diney going back many years. I believe GS (head of the Shuberts) is ready to say sionara. Why not get out of a business that he has watched become something he doesn't recognize or like anymore (creatively). The economy of scale and the new paradigm in the theater business is untenable. Margo Lion is the last of the homegrown independants with big connections. Broadway is no longer able to sustain itself on the beloved passive investor. There is almost no way for a show to recoup without being a monster hit. Broadway is the last of the entertainment industry hold outs. Now that a player is in the game who can actually take it all over and throw money at shows until they stick... there will be no stopping it.

[broadwayguy2]

Posted: 12/2/03 at 2:01am

have you taken your medication today??

I swear to GAWD where do these phreaks come up with this stuff????

[TheaterBaby]

Posted: 12/2/03 at 6:54am

The day Disney takes over a majority of NYC theaters is the day I move out of NYC all together!
I'll be damned if I'm gonna let that Micky Mouse (pardon the pun) corporation take over my Broadway!

[RagtimeRay]

Posted: 12/2/03 at 8:10am

I would like to see Disney buy and renovate the Mark Hellinger, scene of many great Broadway triumphs over the years, but which is no longer in use as a theatre. They already have an "anchor" on 42nd St., and that would give them a venue at the other end of the Broadway theatre district.

[Cadriel]

Posted: 12/2/03 at 8:57am

Honestly, I don't see Disney taking over Broadway in any major way any time soon. Aida's been slipping a lot lately, and the Palace may well have a new tenant by the time Mary Poppins comes to town.

What people aren't paying attention to is the fact that other corporations (like Clear Channel Entertainment) are also moving in on Broadway. If it's going to be corporate, then it'll be corporate with a fight and not just a Disney theme park.

-Wayne

[papalovesmambo]

Posted: 12/2/03 at 10:07am

pssst, i heard that disney has in place a plan to replace the stars of competing shows on broadway with animatronic replicants who will flub their lines, sing off key and flatulate at key dramatic moments in their shows. it's just like that evil entity to use their technological prowess to destroy other shows for their own gain. i also hear that they have an army of audience plants that they send to other shows to seed discord in the audience by running down the shows at intermission. they must be stopped. uh oh, i gotta get offline, i hear the helicopters outside and the marching feet of the mousketeers...be afraid, be very afraid...

[Al Dente]

Posted: 12/2/03 at 11:49am

There is some truth behind Papa's humour and that's what makes it all the more frightening. I would never underestimate Disney's omnipotence. Doesn't give them class or taste but since when has that ever been a requirement in the business of entertainment?

[WOSQ]

Posted: 12/2/03 at 12:00pm

Disney's relationship is with the Nederlanders.

The Shubert Organization is 100% owned by the Shubert Foundation and they're not likely to sell anytime soon. The Boards of Directors for the Organization and the Foundation are the same.

The Shuberts and the Nederlanders also play the NYC real estate game very well and very quietly. For instance the large grey building at Bway and 52nd Street, 1675 Broadway I think, sits on Shubert-owned land. They get a nice piece of leasehold money annually for the right of that building to be built there.

[mebice]

Posted: 12/2/03 at 1:28pm

okay... I have a question...
I like Disney productions...is that bad? I mean I am in love with Aida, well the obc production. I am in love with the music and the whole spectacle. I just hear disney dissed, and I must admit I am an advid fan. Personally, I wouln't mind Broadway being a little more family friendly. I mean I love Broadway the way it is now, but i do enjoy disney. And whoever said something about clear channel is right. They are taking over as well. But I digress, I just wanted to know if I have to hate disney if i love broadway. I am sorry...its my childhood love. Ya know...i didnt read one dr. seuss book...it was all about that mouse. So, i can't diss disney.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 12/2/03 at 1:33pm

No--there is nothing wrong with loving Disney.

if you want to spend your eternity burning in hell.

J/K!!!! =)

[mebice]

Posted: 12/2/03 at 1:35pm

that would totally hurt me if i actually believed in hell...
heheh

[tkts]

Posted: 12/2/03 at 2:00pm

Anyone know of a listing of who owns each of the Broadway theatres?

[rlbgbc]

Posted: 12/2/03 at 2:20pm

Good Lord, folks. I'm not wild about the Disney-fication of Broadway, either, but face it: if they did buy a few properties and put Disney shows in them, at least people would be working in the theatre and paying their bills, instead of slinging drinks/office temping. It's show BUSINESS -- art be damned when you're behind on your rent.

[robbiej]

Posted: 12/2/03 at 2:37pm

So true, RLB.

And with the number of 'I LOVE AIDA'/'WHO SHOULD BE THE NEXT AIDA'/'WHY ISN'T [INSERT RANDOM CHORUS GIRL HERE] PLAYING BELLE' threads on this board, I'm confused at the rancor in this thread.

I, for one, LOVED Lion King.

And although Beauty and the Beast was not my favorite piece of stage craft, taking my 8 year old niece to her first Broadway show (OY...SHE'S 17 NOW!!!) was a very moving and fulfilling experience.

[WOSQ]

Posted: 12/2/03 at 3:02pm

Who owns what.
Here goes:

Shubert Organization owned and operated:
Shubert
Broadhurst
Majestic
Golden
Royale
Plymouth
Booth
Imperial
Barrymore
Longacre
Ambassador
Winter Garden
Broadway
Cort
Lyceum
Belasco
Music Box (co-owned with the estate of Irving Berlin)

Nederlander:
Nederlander
Minskoff
Marquis
Rodgers
Lunt-Fontanne
Atkinson
Neil Simon
Palace
Gershwin
some of these are 100% ownership and some are in partnership with others

Jujamcyn (named for 3 grandchildren: Judith, James and Cynthia):
Hirschfeld
St James
O'Neill
Virginia
Kerr

Clear Channel:
Ford

Disney:
New Amsterdam

Helen Hayes - I forget who, but not any of the above
Circle in the Square?
Henry Miller - Durst, but not for long
American Airlines (Selwyn)and Studio 54: Roundabout
Biltmore: Manhattan Theatre Club