Memphis has competition from The Scottsboro Boys and Bloody Bloody. It also benefits from being, you know, the only original musical of the year that didn't receive (much) critical bile.
The Tonys will be a different ballgame, since the strong elements of this season's off-Broadway musicals aren't in play.
"...everyone finally shut up, and the audience could enjoy the beginning of the Anatevka Pogram in peace."