Show Closings - Predictions??

[musicaltheatrefan3]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 9:02pm

Passing Strange - Winter 2008 (this will not do well at the Tonys, it won't be able to stay)
A Catered Affair - Jan/Feb 2009 (Few Tony noms, has a small fanbase)
In the Heights - Spring 2009 (Small show, not a HUGE fanbase, 1 year run, not that bad)
South Pacific - June 2009 (VERY good for a revival, especially one that was limited run originally)
Xanadu - August 2009 (that's a little over a 2 year run, pretty good for a show everyone thought would play for a week)
The Little Mermaid - Fall 2009 (Disney recognizes its horror, they'll be getting the Lunt-Fontanne ready for another Disneyflop)
Grease - Winter 2009 (The celebrity replacements can't stay for that long)
Legally Blonde - February 2010 (almost 3 years, not bad at all, but the next Elle will most likely close it, unless Becky Gulsvig gets it and closes it)
Spring Awakening - Spring 2010 (It doesn't have the staying power, and even now it's not as big as it was in 2007)
Gypsy - Summer 2010 (Impressive revival run, but I can't see the show staying for a long time without Patti)
Mary Poppins - Summer 2010 (Not Disney's best, heck anything after Aida wasn't Disney's best, but it will take a major dip over 2009 and it will close in summer 2010)

Other 2010 Closings
Avenue Q
(Possibly) Jersey Boys
2011 Closings
Hairspray
Chicago
(Possibly) The Lion King
(Possibly) Mamma Mia! - I have a feeling that they're going to want to close on their 10th anniversary.

Wicked & Phantom will run past 2012. I have a feeling that Wicked will celebrate 20 years.

[musicandtemiror]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 9:03pm

wow how depressing is this thread.
Have you have no hope at all.....?

[ljay889]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 9:04pm

Wait a minute. You think GYPSY is going to make it longer than SOUTH PACIFIC????

[Unknown User]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 9:04pm

Did you really just predict Gypsy would run over 2 years?

[Mr Roxy]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 9:06pm

No mention of Crybaby?

[BenKaye]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 9:06pm

A Catered Affair is closing before Passing Strange.

[jake6970]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 9:07pm

I think that SA will close earlier than that, probably end of summer 09.

[suicidalmickeymouse]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 9:07pm

In The Heights has a long run ahead of itself. Way longer than just a year!

[achangeinme]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 9:08pm

Legally Blonde-the minute the new reality girl gets cast as Elle.

[BroadwayEnthusiast2]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 9:09pm

Jersey Boys closing in 2010 (HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA)

[musicaltheatrefan3]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 9:10pm

"Cry-Baby" Somewhere between December 2008 and February 2009
"Young Frankenstein" - Well, I don't know how they're doing, but based on what I've heard + Tonys, maybe til summer 2009.

[ljay889]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 9:11pm

This kid is hilarious.

[Marianne2]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 9:12pm

Uh, wow. That's like practically every popular show on Broadway right now. And what makes Wicked and Phantom so much better than the rest of these shows? Personally, I could see Phantom and Chicago closing earlier than some of the newer shows because they are older and have had a long run. And yes, I do want to see Wicked, but I know there is other shows out there besides it. And I am really excited to be seeing In the Heights this month.

[defyingravity07]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 9:13pm

Attention we have a LuPwneie in aile 4 that we would like escorted off the property.

[oohshizz146]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 9:14pm

Depressing. =(

[Unknown User]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 9:16pm

I missed the Lion King goofiness. You do realize it's still between 98 and 100% every single week? That show will not close in 2010. Lion King will run at least 20 years and has a great a shot at becoming the longest running show in history.

But thanks for playing. We've got a case of Rice A Roni for you!

[musicaltheatrefan3]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 9:16pm

Did I say better? No, but they have HUGE fanbases, which keep them with buckets of money. Wicked has been #1 every week this year so far, and was #1 at the box office for 50 weeks in 2007. They won't be closing anytime soon.

[philly03]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 9:17pm

Disagree with so many. In the Heights will run atleast two years, if not many more.

Gypsy will be lucky if it runs past next February! I believe Patti & Mandy Patinkin are doing their own (and suprisingly very similar) "concert"-style tour like Linda Eder & Michael Feinstein did. Well there is already an engagement set up for the week of March 10 - 15, 2009!

Sorry to be anti-optismistic, but I'd be suprised if Xanadu runs past the end of the year holidays this year. I don't believe it has ever sold well?, and unless it picks up alot of awards it won't change.

But I do agree with Passing Strange. Like Xanadu, unless it picks up tons of award/acclaim it's gone soon!

And Phantom will keep running..considering it's been selling 90% of tickets?

[steven22]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 9:18pm

orignal poster...go into a hole...and never come out

[Robert Taylor]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 9:19pm

Dude, Little Mermaid has made close to, if not more than, $1 million per week since it opened, with no signs of slowing down or stopping, despite the initial negative press! Fans and tourists absolutely LOVE the show and award it a standing ovation every night! It's never dipped beneath 75% capacity, even in the slowest post-holiday weeks! It's made over $26 million since opening, which is an astounding sum! Could I use any more exclamation points!?

The point is, just because a show is (sometimes unfairly) lambasted on this board does not mean that it is not a popular, enjoyable show for the masses.

[musicaltheatrefan3]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 9:20pm

Why is everyone on here so mean to me?

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 9:23pm

Make dumb posts, people are mean.

[defyingravity07]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 9:23pm

Because you make dumb threads with no validity.

[Marianne2]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 9:26pm

I just don't know where you came up with some of your ideas for closings.

[BillyE]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 9:29pm

I think all of this year's Tony nominated shows will be gone by this time next year, with possible exceptions of South Pacific and August Osage County.
What a weak season it has been!