Show Closings - Predictions??- Page 3

[Brave Sir Robin2]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 10:58pm

Um...may I question:
Passing Strange - Winter 2008 (this will not do well at the Tonys, it won't be able to stay)
In the Heights - Spring 2009 (Small show, not a HUGE fanbase, 1 year run, not that bad)
The Little Mermaid - Fall 2009 (Disney recognizes its horror, they'll be getting the Lunt-Fontanne ready for another Disneyflop)
Legally Blonde - February 2010 (almost 3 years, not bad at all, but the next Elle will most likely close it, unless Becky Gulsvig gets it and closes it)
Mary Poppins - Summer 2010 (Not Disney's best, heck anything after Aida wasn't Disney's best, but it will take a major dip over 2009 and it will close in summer 2010)
(Possibly) The Lion King
(Possibly) Mamma Mia! - I have a feeling that they're going to want to close on their 10th anniversary.
I have a feeling that Wicked will celebrate 20 years.

? Little Mermaid makes almost $1 million a week. No closing notice yet.

[blaxx]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 11:00pm

blaxx: How can a show like Wicked lose Best Musical to a show with puppets?

Yup, like the puppet show doesn't have a name and Wicked is of such calibre that the win was such an outrage.

My favorite was when he said that if they would have changed In The Height's title it would have been eligible for the Drama Desk Awards again this year - classic!

[millie_dillmount]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 11:03pm

In other words, Rent was supposed to close the other day.

[shh282]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 11:04pm

Oy.

[defyingravity07]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 11:05pm

Xanadu 2 years!?! Really, Xanadu been doing terrible since around it's 8th month, if it doesn't score big with Tonys and their gross picks up I can't see it lasting even 6 more months.

[adamgreer]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 11:06pm

The Little Mermaid may not be doing sell-out business, but it's clearly making a decent amount of money every week. It's not going anywhere for awhile.

The biggest laugher to me on this list was that Legally Blonde was going to last until 2010.

[blaxx]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 11:07pm

Let's predict how old musicaltheatrefan3 is.

[jagfkb]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 11:08pm

Yeah, no offense (or is there?) but saying all of these shows ae closing so soon is kindda depressing.

[defyingravity07]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 11:08pm

In the range of 12-14.

[defyingravity07]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 11:08pm

Double post. Updated On: 6/3/08 at 11:08 PM

[millie_dillmount]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 11:10pm

5.

[adamgreer]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 11:10pm

12-14 year olds have school tomorrow. They ought to be in bed at this hour (as should I, incidentally).

[defyingravity07]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 11:11pm

I should be in bed now too, I'm 16.
Updated On: 6/3/08 at 11:11 PM

[Brave Sir Robin2]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 11:13pm

I bet he/she/it is 9.5

[orangeskittles]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 11:15pm

Yeah, no offense (or is there?) but saying all of these shows ae closing so soon is kindda depressing.

So soon? Wicked running 20 years, Gypsy having its longest run ever and shows selling at 60% lasting until 2010 is too soon?

[blaxx]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 11:16pm

11 max.

[millie_dillmount]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 11:21pm

You guys are being too generous with his age.

[ljay889]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 11:23pm

I say he's a very obnoxious 12 year old.

[LuPonatic]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 11:30pm

Everything that is open right now will close the day after the tony awards. That's how it works, right? Shows are only open for one season, then replaced with new shows that compete for Tonys, right? The Tonys are the be all, end all!

[blaxx]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 11:32pm

No, only if you're under 12.

[TooDarnHot]

Posted: 6/3/08 at 11:43pm

LOOK!

MUSICALTHEATREFAN ISN'T TALL ENOUGH TO POST ON THE MESSAGE BOARD.

[puppetman2]

Posted: 6/4/08 at 12:00am

He seems to still be in the woumb.

[frontrowcentre2]

Posted: 6/4/08 at 2:09am

Why is everyone on here so mean to me?

Because you are trying to pass yourself off as some sort of expert when you obviously do not know what you are talking about.

Have you looked at the grosses? If PASSING STRANGE doesn't do well at the Tonys it will quickly shutter. Likewise XANADU and CRY BABY.

GYPSY with Patti has already been announced for London in the spring of 2009. SOUTH PACIFIC is the biggest hit of the season and will likely be playing for several seasons to come.


Also, to be fully accurate you need to know the weekly break-even for each show.

Idle speculation such as this is just a waste of everyone's time.

[TooDarnHot]

Posted: 6/4/08 at 2:18am

good pont, frontrow, but I'm not sure it's even that.

It's the fact that this 6 year old dumbass said WICKED will run for 20 years.

Just absolutely ridiculous.

We can all make predictions and speculation... but at least we try to use logical sense.

You don't need to know the financial numbers and the ticket sales to make a reasonable prediction.

But the OP's predictions were not reasonable - they were absolutely innane and ludacris.

[Theatreboy49]

Posted: 6/4/08 at 2:32am

I agree this kid is making dumbass comments but is the idea of Wicked running that long so farfetched? I for one hope it doesnt happen but its a spectacle, and the tourists love it. Its something mainstream they know and like Phantom it could run for 20 years. Though the reason I find it stupid this kid predicts it is his avatar is the poster for the show. Well and that everything else according to him is closing by 2010. I somehow think though that his idea of Wicked lasting for a while isnt so out there that it couldnt happen.