I really do hope Fun Home wins, which should probably come to no surprise. I fully admit to not having seen American in Paris (though I hope to soon),so I'm aware this opinion is uninformed, but I'll just be disappointed if Best Musical is awarded to another pretty show with good dancing and Gershwin songs. I'm sure there's craft and a lot of great work being done in American in Paris, but Fun Home to me is a such a different achievement, and tells the kind of story Broadway so rarely tells. It would be great to see that kind of risk-taking awarded. Plus, if Fun Home wins Book, Score, and Direction, which is a pretty good bet, I just don't see how a show that is the best in those categories can't be called the best musical of the year.
I am a firm believer in serendipity- all the random pieces coming together in one wonderful moment, when suddenly you see what their purpose was all along.