Splitting Tony Votes

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Splitting Tony Votes

Posted: 5/27/18 at 3:24pm

Hello all! Long time lurker, first-time poster. Over this "extraneous" Tony season, I have been able to note how people believe that their predictions are the sure bet, but something that has increasingly bothered me is the idea that Renée Fleming and Lindsay Mendez will split the vote in Featured, and either Ashley Park or Diana Rigg will take the award. Now, I know I sound really silly (considering that there are always usually vote splits if there are multiple actors from one show in a category, i.e. Ruthie Ann Miles winning over all of the Fun Home ladies), but I want to here some other takes on this topic!

Splitting Tony Votes

Posted: 5/27/18 at 3:30pm

I think not. Mendez is the one to beat (and really the most deserving—she gave easily the best performance in a horrible production).

Splitting Tony Votes

Posted: 5/27/18 at 3:58pm

I could see Ashley Park taking it.

Splitting Tony Votes

Posted: 5/27/18 at 4:05pm

*I didn't really care for Mendez, thought she was in a different production then everyone else. But, I also can't believe the amount of Tony love the show got in the acting categories. (I understand JH's nom - but still had some problems with his performance.)

Truth be told - we weill NEVER be able to know how spliting the vote OR any other theory people have about the results of any awards. Some years a win doesn't come from a multin nominated category, some years it does.

Even if they released the actual results (how many votes each nominee rec'd) you never really know....and even then - how do you know that those that voted for Fleming instead of Mendez would have voted for Mendez had Flemming not been there?

Bottom line: if enough voters but YOU at the top of their list - you win.

If we're not having fun, then why are we doing it? These are DISCUSSION boards, not mutual admiration boards. Discussion only occurs when we are willing to hear what others are thinking, regardless of whether it is alignment to our own thoughts.

Splitting Tony Votes

Posted: 5/27/18 at 5:20pm

Each year has its own dynamics. So many things go into it: Talent, timing and luck. The size and showiness of the role. The show's reviews. Who else is competing and if they're overdue.

Solipsiste234 notes the case of Ruthie Ann Miles (''The King and I'' ) winning over the trio of nominees from ''Fun Home,'' but Jane Krakowski won for ''Nine'' (2004 ) over her featured co-stars Mary Stuart Masterson and Chita Rivera. Gary Beach won for ''The Producers'' (2001) over his featured co-stars Roger Bart and Brad Oscar. Most recently, Daveed Diggs won for ''Hamilton'' (2016) over his featured co-stars Jonathan Groff and Christopher Jackson.

In the leading categories (since 2000), Norbert Leo Butz, Douglas Hodge, Nathan Lane, Idina Menzel and Leslie Odom Jr. all won the Tony, even though they competed against their co-stars.

Updated On: 5/27/18 at 05:20 PM

Splitting Tony Votes

Posted: 5/27/18 at 6:30pm

Splitting votes really tends to come down to whether one performance is the clear favorite over the other or not. For instance, while Christopher Jackson and Jonathan Groff each had some supporters in Hamilton, Daveed Diggs was handidly the most talked about, most hyped, etc. and the one the vast majority of people agreed stole the show. Therefore, there was no issue with splitting the vote. In the case of the "Fun Home" ladies, though, both Judy Kuhn and Sydney Lucas (and to some extent Emily Skeggs) had huge supporters, with none of them really pulling in front of the others, therefore they likely did split the vote.

In this particular case, it seems mostly everyone is raving about Lindsay Mendez (far moreso than Renee Fleming), therefore I don't think a split vote will happen. That doesn't necessarily mean she's going to win, but if she doesn't, it won't be because Renee stole too many votes away from her.

Splitting Tony Votes

Posted: 5/27/18 at 7:19pm

Broadway61004 said: "Splitting votes really tends to come down to whether one performance is the clear favorite over the other or not. For instance, while Christopher Jackson and Jonathan Groff each had some supporters in Hamilton, Daveed Diggs was handidly the most talked about, most hyped, etc. and the one the vast majority of people agreed stole the show. Therefore, there was no issue with splitting the vote. In the case of the "Fun Home" ladies, though, both Judy Kuhn and Sydney Lucas (and to some extent Emily Skeggs) had huge supporters, with none of them really pulling in front of the others, therefore they likely did split the vote.

In this particular case, it seems mostly everyone is raving about Lindsay Mendez (far moreso than Renee Fleming), therefore I don't think a split vote will happen. That doesn't necessarily mean she's going to win, but if she doesn't, it won't be because Renee stole too many votes away from her."

It could also be the case for Josh Gad and Andrew Rannells in TBOM, allowing Norbert Leo Butz to sneak in. You can make a case for either of them winning, therefore, they split.

Splitting Tony Votes

Posted: 5/27/18 at 8:46pm

If there is a split this year it will be in Best Actor in a Musical.

Splitting Tony Votes

Posted: 5/27/18 at 11:38pm

Shh_413 said: "Broadway61004 said: "Splitting votes really tends to come down to whether one performance is the clear favorite over the other or not. For instance, while Christopher Jackson and Jonathan Groff each had some supporters in Hamilton, Daveed Diggs was handidly the most talked about, most hyped, etc. and the one the vast majority of people agreed stole the show. Therefore, there was no issue with splitting the vote. In the case of the "Fun Home" ladies, though, both Judy Kuhn and Sydney Lucas (and to some extent Emily Skeggs) had huge supporters, with none of them really pulling in front of the others, therefore they likely did split the vote.

In this particular case, it seems mostly everyone is raving about Lindsay Mendez (far moreso than Renee Fleming), therefore I don't think a split vote will happen. That doesn't necessarily mean she's going to win, but if she doesn't, it won't be because Renee stole too many votes away from her."

It could also be the case for Josh Gad and Andrew Rannells in TBOM, allowing Norbert Leo Butz to sneak in. You can make a case for either of them winning, therefore, they split."

Yes, absolutely. There are many examples of both types which is why it really just depends on the year. (Ironically, Butz's other win came in the "other" category, where both he and John Lithgow were nominated, but he was the clear frontrunner and therefore didn't split the votes).

#10

Splitting Tony Votes

Posted: 5/28/18 at 2:58am

It's Lindsay's to lose. It's not Ashley Park's year to win. If you think politically, outside of the actual performances, Lindsay has been around for over ten years, but just hasn't had a role on Broadway to get her even a nomination. With Wicked and Dogfight, she wasn't eligible, but people knew she was extraordinary. Park got a nomination, almost as recognition for both Mean Girls and KPOP. Her actual performance in Mean Girls is about the same as Kate Rockwell, IMO, but I think KPOP helped her get the nom over Rockwell.

Sorry, that was a rant, but Fleming gives a stunning performance of one song, while Lindsay is a highlight mixed throughout the whole show. If anything, Fleming and Rigg would split the vote between them, not because they are in the same show, but because they are big, established stars in small roles in their respective shows. Does any of this make sense?

#11

Splitting Tony Votes

Posted: 5/28/18 at 5:01am

And still...nothing but theories.

All thoughtful theories, but that's all they can be.

#12

Splitting Tony Votes

Posted: 5/28/18 at 8:07am

I did the math once. I’ll have to go back and find the specifics. But since 2000, when multiple actors from the same production are nominated in the same category, one of them wins over 50% of the time.

Just remembering you've had an "and" When you're back to "or" Makes the "or" mean more than it did before

#13

Splitting Tony Votes

Posted: 5/28/18 at 9:26am

QueenAlice said: "If there is a split this year it will be in Best Actor in a Musical. "

Leading Actor/Musical does seem like the biggest unknown up to this point, and I think there’s a world in which Harry, Joshua, or Ethan could win. The only other race with that much uncertainty is Featured Actress/Play (Metcalf or Gough). If Angels is going to win Best Revival because of all the industry support behind it (that list of producers is a who’s-who of Broadway), maybe Metcalf wins as another way of honoring Three Tall Women.

I don’t think Renee Fleming is taking any votes away from Lindsay Mendez. Renee is lucky to be nominated in a weak season.

#14

Splitting Tony Votes

Posted: 5/29/18 at 8:05pm

SomethingPeculiar said: "QueenAlice said: "If there is a split this year it will be in Best Actor in a Musical."

Leading Actor/Musical does seem like the biggest unknown up to this point, and I think there’s a world in which Harry, Joshua, or Ethan could win."

Don't forget Tony Shalhoub. He is the veteran out of all the nominees. Plus, the awards for Best Musical and Lead Actor have so far gone hand-in-hand about five times before within this past decade.

"The only other race with that much uncertainty is Featured Actress/Play (Metcalf or Gough). If Angels is going to win Best Revival because of all the industry support behind it (that list of producers is a who’s-who of Broadway), maybe Metcalf wins as another way of honoring Three Tall Women."

Don't forget Noma Dumezweni. She won the Olivier last year, and with a lot of us expecting Harry Potter to win big on Tony night, it is possible that the play could take an acting award.

Updated On: 5/29/18 at 08:05 PM

#15

Splitting Tony Votes

Posted: 5/29/18 at 9:00pm

I think Gough is probably favored over Metcalf... though maybe not by a lot. I can't help but wonder if an extra vote or two will be thrown Melcalf's way as consolation for Roseanne. (Not that Metcalf's Three Tall Women performance needs consolation to be honored. But I caught myself thinking about that today.)

Dumezweni was great in her role, but I just can't put her performance at the same level as the other two.

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