I don't follow plays all too much, so these are my thoughts on the musicals.
Best Musical: Hamilton School of Rock Shuffle Along... Waitress Possible: American Psycho
Best Revival of a Musical: The Color Purple Fiddler on the Roof She Loves Me If there's a fourth spot: Spring Awakening
Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Musical: Alex Brightman-School of Rock Danny Burstein-Fiddler on the Roof Lin-Manuel Miranda-Hamilton Leslie Odom, Jr.-Hamilton Benjamin Walker-American Psycho
Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Musical: Laura Benanti-She Loves Me Cynthia Erivo-The Color Purple Audra McDonald-Shuffle Along... Jessie Mueller-Waitress Carmen Cusack-Bright Star Possible: Phillipa Soo-Hamilton
Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Musical: Daveed Diggs-Hamilton Christopher Fitzgerald-Waitress *Not sure who else, TBH*
Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Musical: Danielle Brooks-The Color Purple Renee Elise Goldsberry-Hamilton Jennifer Hudson-The Color Purple Jane Krakowski-She Loves Me Last Spot Possibly: Helene Yorke-American Psycho, Kimiko Glenn or Keala Settle-Waitress, Jennifer Simard-Disaster!
Best Direction of a Musical: John Doyle-The Color Purple Scott Ellis-She Loves Me Thomas Kail-Hamilton Bartlett Sher-Fiddler on the Roof Possible: Michael Arden-Spring Awakening
Best Original Score: Bright Star-Music By Steve Martin & Edie Brickell, Lyrics By Edie Brickell Hamilton-Music & Lyrics By Lin-Manuel Miranda School of Rock-Music By Andrew Lloyd Webber, Lyrics By Glenn Slater Waitress-Music & Lyrics By Sara Bareilles
Best Book of a Musical: Hamilton-Lin-Manuel Miranda School of Rock-Julian Fellowes Shuffle Along...-George C. Wolfe Waitress-Jessie Nelson
Best Choreography: Andy Blankenbuehler-Hamilton Spencer Liff-Spring Awakening Savion Glover-Shuffle Along... Hofesh Shechter-Fiddler on the Roof
Best Orchestrations: Joseph Joubert-The Color Purple Alex Lacamoire-Hamilton Ted Sperling-Fiddler on the Roof Daryl Waters-Shuffle Along...
Scenic Design - Musical: American Psycho Hamilton She Loves Me Tuck Everlasting
Costume Design - Musical: American Psycho Hamilton She Loves Me Shuffle Along...
Lighting Design - Musical: American Psycho Hamilton She Loves Me Shuffle Along...
Best Musical: Hamilton Shuffle Along Waitress School of Rock
Best Revival: The Color Purple Fiddler On The Roof She Loves Me
Best Score: Hamilton Bright Star School of Rock Waitress
Best Book: Hamilton Bright Star Shuffle Along Waitress
Best Director: John Doyle-The Color Purple Scott Ellis-She Loves Me Thomas Kail-Hamilton Bart Sher- Fiddler George C Wolfe-Shuffle Along
Leading Actor Musical: Alex Brightman-School of Rock Danny Burstein-Fiddler On The Roof Lin-Manuel Miranda-Hamilton Leslie OdomJr.-Hamilton Benjamin Walker-American Psycho
Leading Actress Musical: Laura Benanti-She Loves Me Carmen Cusack-Bright Star Cynthia Erivo-The Color Purple Jessie Mueller-Waitress Audra McDonald-Shuffle Along
I would love for Phillipa Soo-Hamilton to be be nominated but feel Carmen's performance bumped her out of the running.
Featured Actor: Christopher Fitzgerald-Waitress Daveed Diggs-Hamilton Jonathon Groff-Hamilton Christopher Jackson-Hamilton Billy Porter-Shuffle Along or Brandon Victor Dixon-Shuffle Along
Featured Actress: Danielle J Brooks-The Color Purple Jennifer Hudson-The Color Purple Renee Elise Goldsberry-Hamilton Jane Krakowski-She Loves Me Helene Yorke-American Psycho or Adrienne Warren-Shuffle Along
Best Choreography: Andy Blankenbuehler-Hamilton Savion Glover-Shuffle Along Warren Carlyle-She Loves Me Sergio Trujillo-On Your Feet Randy Skinner-Dames at Sea
Best Scenic Design: David Korins-Hamilton David Rockwell-She Loves Me Santo Loquasto-Shuffle Along Es Devlin-American Psycho
Best Costume Design: Ann Roth-Shuffle Along ESosa-On Your Feet Jeff Mahshie-She Loves Me Paul Tazewell, Hamilton
Best Lighting Design: Howell Binkley- Hamilton Jules Fisher/Peggy Eisenhauer-Shuffle Along Donald Holder- She Loves Me Justin Townsend-American Psycho
Best Orchestrations: Sara Bareilles-Waitress Larry Hochman-She Loves Me Alex Lacamoire- Hamilton Daryl Walters-Shuffle Along
"Anything you do, let it it come from you--then it will be new."
Sunday in the Park with George
Best Musical: Hamilton Shuffle Along Waitress School of Rock
Best Revival: The Color Purple Fiddler On The Roof She Loves Me
Best Score: Hamilton Bright Star School of Rock Waitress
Best Book: Hamilton Bright Star Shuffle Along Waitress
Best Director: John Doyle-The Color Purple Scott Ellis-She Loves Me Thomas Kail-Hamilton Bart Sher- Fiddler George C Wolfe-Shuffle Along
Leading Actor Musical: Alex Brightman-School of Rock Danny Burstein-Fiddler On The Roof Lin-Manuel Miranda-Hamilton Leslie OdomJr.-Hamilton Benjamin Walker-American Psycho
Leading Actress Musical: Laura Benanti-She Loves Me Carmen Cusack-Bright Star Cynthia Erivo-The Color Purple Jessie Mueller-Waitress Audra McDonald-Shuffle Along
I would love for Phillipa Soo-Hamilton to be be nominated but feel Carmen's performance bumped her out of the running.
Featured Actor: Christopher Fitzgerald-Waitress Daveed Diggs-Hamilton Jonathon Groff-Hamilton Christopher Jackson-Hamilton Billy Porter-Shuffle Along or Brandon Victor Dixon-Shuffle Along
Featured Actress: Danielle J Brooks-The Color Purple Jennifer Hudson-The Color Purple Renee Elise Goldsberry-Hamilton Jane Krakowski-She Loves Me Helene Yorke-American Psycho or Adrienne Warren-Shuffle Along
Best Choreography: Andy Blankenbuehler-Hamilton Savion Glover-Shuffle Along Warren Carlyle-She Loves Me Sergio Trujillo-On Your Feet Randy Skinner-Dames at Sea
Best Scenic Design: David Korins-Hamilton David Rockwell-She Loves Me Santo Loquasto-Shuffle Along Es Devlin-American Psycho
Best Costume Design: Ann Roth-Shuffle Along ESosa-On Your Feet Jeff Mahshie-She Loves Me Paul Tazewell, Hamilton
Best Lighting Design: Howell Binkley- Hamilton Jules Fisher/Peggy Eisenhauer-Shuffle Along Donald Holder- She Loves Me Justin Townsend-American Psycho
Best Orchestrations: Sara Bareilles-Waitress Larry Hochman-She Loves Me Alex Lacamoire- Hamilton Daryl Walters-Shuffle Along
"Anything you do, let it it come from you--then it will be new."
Sunday in the Park with George
Here are my predictions! It took me a while to finalize and add all of the "Potentials". Pretty confident about all of the nods except American Psycho, but I'm hoping the world (rather, the Tony votes) might throw Ben and the AP cast a bone. And I didn't do the tech awards for plays as I haven't seen any and the critics don't give too much info. Anyway...
Best Musical:
American Psycho
Hamilton
Shuffle Along
Waitress
POTENTIAL: School of Rock
Best Play:
Eclipsed
The Father
The Humans
King Charles III
Revival of a Musical:
The Color Purple
Fiddler on the Roof
She Loves Me (idk right now, but it’s going to be TCP or SLM)
POTENTIAL: Spring Awakening
Revival of a Play:
A View From The Bridge
Arthur Miller's The Crucible
Blackbird
Long Day's Journey Into Night
POTENTIAL: Noises Off
Leading Actor in a Musical:
Benjamin Walker - American Psycho
Danny Burstein - Fiddler On The Roof
Lin-Manuel Miranda - Hamilton
Leslie Odom, Jr. - Hamilton
Zachary Levi - She Loves Me
POTENTIAL: Alex Brightman - School of Rock
Leading Actress in a Musical:
Audra McDonald - Shuffle Along
Cynthia Erivo - The Color Purple
Jessie Mueller - Waitress
Laura Benanti - She Loves Me
Phillipa Soo - Hamilton (Pippa or Jessie idk)
POTENTIAL: Carmen Cusack - Bright Star
Leading Actor in a Play:
Frank Langella - The Father
Gabriel Byrne - Long Day's Journey Into Night
Jeff Daniels - Blackbird
Mark Strong - A View From The Bridge
Tom Piggot-Smith - King Charles III
POTENTIAL: Ben Windshaw - The Crucible and Jesse Tyler Ferguson - Fully Committed
Leading Actress in a Play:
Jessica Lange - Long Day's Journey Into Night
Lupita Nyong'o - Eclipsed
Michelle Williams - Blackbird
Nicola Walker - A View From The Bridge
Sophie Okonedo - Arthur Miller's The Crucible
Featured Actor in a Musical:
Billy Porter - Shuffle Along
Christopher Fitzgerald - Waitress
Daveed Diggs - Hamilton
Gavin Creel - She Loves Me
Jonathan Groff - Hamilton
POTENTIAL: Nicholas Barasch - She Loves Me and Christopher Jackson - Hamilton
Featured Actress in a Musical:
Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple
Jane Krakowski - She Loves Me
Jennifer Hudson - The Color Purple
Jennifer Simard - Disaster!
Renée Elise Goldsberry - Hamilton
POTENTIAL: Helene Yorke - American Psycho
Featured Actor in a Play:
John Gallagher, Jr. - Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Oliver Chris - King Charles III
Reed Birney - The Humans (you get the gist, idk)
Richard Goulding - King Charles III
Russell Tovey - A View From The Bridge
POTENTIAL: David Furr - Noises Off and Michael Shannon - Long Day's Journey Into Night
Featured Actress in a Play:
Andrea Martin - Noises Off
Jayne Houdyshell - The Humans
Megan Hilty - Noises Off
Saoirse Ronan - Arthur Miller's The Crucible
Saycon Sengbloh - Eclipsed
POTENTIAL: Pascale Armand - Eclipsed
Book of a Musical:
Roberto Aguirre-Sacasa - American Psycho
Lin-Manuel Miranda - Hamilton
George C. Wolfe - Shuffle Along
Jessie Nelson - Waitress
POTENTIAL: Jack Plotneck - Disaster!
Score:
Andrew Lloyd Webber and Glenn Slater - School of Rock: The Musical
Duncan Sheik - American Psycho
Lin-Manuel Miranda - Hamilton
Sara Bareilles - Waitress
POTENTIAL: Steve Martin & Edie Brickell - Bright Star
Direction of a Musical:
Rupert Goold - American Psycho
Thomas Kail - Hamilton
Scott Ellis - She Loves Me
Michael Arden - Spring Awakening
Diane Paulus - Waitress
POTENTIAL: John Doyle - The Color Purple
Choreography:
Lynne Page - American Psycho
Andy Blankenbuehler - Hamilton
Savion Glover - Shuffle Along
Spencer Liff - Spring Awakening
Lorin Latarro - Waitress
POTENTIAL: Randy Skinner - Dames At Sea
Scenic Design of a Musical:
American Psycho
Fiddler on the Roof
Hamilton
She Loves Me
POTENTIAL: Waitress
Costume Design of a Musical:
American Psycho
Hamilton
She Loves Me
Shuffle Along
POTENTIAL: Fiddler on the Roof
Lighting Design of a Musical:
American Psycho
Hamilton
School of Rock: The Musical
Spring Awakening
POTENTIAL: Shuffle Along and She Loves Me
Orchestrations:
Jason Michael Webb - The Color Purple
Alex Lacaimore - Hamilton
Larry Hochman - She Loves Me
Sara Bareilles & The Waitress Band - Waitress
POTENTIAL: American Psycho, School of Rock, Shuffle Along
Since everyone has already listed the nominees I thought I'd list who Will Win/Should Win
Best Musical: Will Win: Hamilton/ Should Win: Hamilton. Yeah, it's good and nothing is even close to as good this year. Plus, the press and pop culture have taken its popularity to a new level for Broadway.
Best Play: Will Win: The Humans/ Should Win: The Humans. I think the Pulitzer Prize Finalist Nom clinched its win with Tony Voters, but this will be the nights closest race against King Charles lll. Tony Voters love a classy British import. But seriously, The Humans is the best play about who we are now in America that Broadway has seen in years.
Best Musical Revival: Will Win: The Color Purple/ Should Win: The Color Purple. The cast, creatives, and producers have turned this bloated, ill received 2005 film to stage adaptation into a stripped it down, universal experience and the audience can now see its heart and soul. It's the must see show of the year in my opinion.
Best Revival of a Play: Will win: A View from a Bridge/Should Win: A View from a Bridge. Broadway didn't need another revival of this Miller Classic...it's barely been a decade since the last production. But Ivo Van Hove has proven with his minimalist, metaphoric take on blue collar America is that a fresh take on a classic is always welcome
Best Actress in a Musical: Will Win: Cynthia Erivo/ Should Win: Cynthia Erivo. A Broadway debut like Broadway has never seen before. An honest, fierce, powerhouse of a performance that pierces your heart everytime she opens her mouth to speak or sing
Best Actor in a Musical: Will Win: Danny Burstein/ Should Win: Leslie Odom Jr. Danny is talented performer who has been passed up for the Tony in years where he absolutely deserved it. But his Tevye isn't bringing anything to the role we haven't seen before. Leslie's Aaron burr is sexy, suave, charming, vengeful, surprising and exciting. It should be his year.
Best Actress in a Play: Will Win: Lupita Nyong'o/ Should Win: Lupita Nyong'o. A performance that makes you think about what happens to her character after the curtain comes down. It's a year where not enough plays were produced on Broadway, especially new ones, but Eclipsed offers a new and harrowing depiction of women who are desperate to find a secure place in the world. The role is better written than performed, but Lupita does it great justice
Best Actor in a Play: Will Win: Mark Strong/ Should Win: Mark Strong. Such a STRONG performance, lol. So strong you fear him by the end of the show, you feel every ounce of his love and pain, his betrayal. Couldn't take my eyes off him.
Featured Actress in a Musical: Will Win: Rene Elise Goldsberry/Should win: Danielle J Brooks. Rene is a true triple threat, but the role just doesn't allow her to dig deep into a real person life. Danielle is living and breathing inside her character, so much you don't even realize she is singing. It part the role but most importantly the heart she brings to it.
Featured Actor in a Musical: Will Win: Daveed Diggs/Should Win: Daveed Diggs/Could Win: Christopher Fitzgerald. This is another tough race. Daveed is positively new and fresh in every way in Hamilton. the take on Thomas Jefferson is one of the funniest things about Hamilton. Christopher is a comic genius. He steals the show with one number in Waitress, but its a weakly written character and doesn't get to show any range.
Featured Actress in a Play: Will Win: Megan Hilty/ Should win: Saycon Sengbloh (Eclipsed). Megan is funny in Noises Off (the highlight in my opinion), she's a Broadway favorite too because of SMASH and definitely a musical theater talent that needs to come back to the stage in a new musical, But Saycon, is truly menacing in Eclipsed. she haunts you after the play is over. Her performance deserves the recognition. You've never seen a woman like this before.
Featured Actor in a Play: Will Win: Reed Birney: Should Win: Reed Birney. Suc a real lived in complicated performance. Sometimes funny, sometimes contradicting, sometimes unlikable. He's D) all of the above in The Humans.
Best Score: Will Win: Lin Manuel Miranda for Hamilton/ Should Win: Lin Manuel Miranda. Is it overrated...Yes. Is it good....Yes. The mix of colonial and modern hip vernacular is REVELATORY! Honorable mention belongs to Sarah Barallies for Waitress...it's much more effective in doing what it sets out to do....if it wants you to to cry, you do. if it wants you to laugh, you do.
Best Book of a Musical: Will Win: Lin Manuel Miranda/ Should Win: Lin Manuel Miranda. The structure of Hamilton is quite wonderful. It's the glue that holds the show together.
Best Choreography: Will Win: Andy Blankenbuehler-Hamilton/ Should win: Savion Glover for Shuffle Along.
Best Direction of a Musial: Will Win: Thomas Kale/ Should Win: John Doyle. I think Hamilton is in need of a directoral edit. At times it's too busy with all the dancing, other times the staging doesn't feel as exciting as it should. John Doyle makes all the right decisions with the Color Purple. You never stop to think, you are always hanging on every word...that is John's work at helping you to focus in on the the people of the story. He has such restraint in the theatericality...just enough, just representational enough. The music direction is heavenly.
Best Direction of a Play: Should Win: Ivo Van Hove/ Will Win: Ivo Van Hove. He's everywhere this year...and rightfully so.
Best Set Design of Musical: Will Win: David Rockwell for She Loves Me/ Should Win: Es Devlin-American Psycho. Es is really talking minimalism to the next level with his work in Psycho. It's eerie, its era specific, it could be on the cover of architectual digest...it changes tones quickly as well. very hard to do.
Best Set Design of a Play: Should Win: The Humans/ Will Win: The Humans
Best Costume Design of a Musial: Will Win: David Korins-Hamilton/ Should Win: David Korins Hamilton.
Best Costume Design of a Play: Will Win: Kin Charles the lll/ Should Win: King Charles the lll
Best Orchestrations: Will Win: Alex Lacamorie Hamilton Should win: Daryl Walters-Shuffle Along
Best lighting Design of a Musical: Will win: American Psycho/ Should win: American Psycho.
I'm frankly too lazy to write down my predictions for nominations but my biggest wish is for Adam Kantor to be included on Tuesday. I also think if only one of the women from Eclipsed is in the featured category (which seems likely, I think Lupita is a lock for a nomination in leading), it should be Zainab Jah. They're all excellent and I would love for them all to be nominated but her performance in particular is still haunting me.
Time Out NY has posted their Tony predictions and I gotta say it's pretty accurate to how I think things might end up playing out on Tuesday. At least on the musical end. I am not familiar with the plays this season but the musicals... it's almost exactly what I have on my own predictions list. With a FEW exceptions...
- Featured Actor in a Musical. I don't think that Brooks Ashmanskas would get the nom over both Billy AND Brian. I also don't think that one should count out Gavin Ceel, Adam Kantor, Christopher Jackson, Terrance Ma- Oh who am I kidding! This is the hardest category to get a feel for! Any one of these guys could end up on that list. I think the only 100% LOCK is Daveed Diggs. Lock for nomination AND win. Other then that, it could be anyone.
- Featured Actress in a Musical. I agree with them that Jennifer Hudson is not going to get a nomination. She will be the snub heard round the world this year. You know the one. The big star that does a show but is snubbed and it's all major news outlets that know nothing about Broadway talk about it like it's a sin. But I also don't know if I'd lock Keala Settle into this category. I really think that 5th spot might end up going to Helene York.
- Director. I would like to see Michael Arden in there for Spring Awakening. Over George C. Wolfe for Shuffle Along.
- Scenic Design of a Musical. I think this is the one place that Tuck will not be forgotten. I think it would bump either American Psycho or Shuffle on this list.
Costume Design of a Musical - Color Purple being in here is my one big "wait what" that they have on their list. I would put any number of other shows this season over them here. American Psycho being the top of the bump out list.
Other then that, yeah... this is I think one of the most level headed prediction lists I've seen.
aaaaaa15 said: "Although it's important to note those aren't actually predictions, just who those journalists want to be nominated.
'Once again: These are not our predictions of who will be nominated, but who we think should be nominated.'"
They are still extremely on point for what I think personally think we are gonna see Tuesday morning. I think their "should" lines up very well with "will be" nominated.
I still have not lost hope for nominations for Spencer Liff and Michael Arden, however unlikely they may be. I think the Time Out predictions are pretty solid, but I'd put Jane Krakowski in the Featured Actress category over Adrienne Warren. I'd like to see Hélene Yorke get in as well. I'm just hoping for a lot of American Psycho love in general.
Yes, if Hudson is not nominated it will be seen as a snub. But what is really a snub about the fallout when a big star is not nominated for an award is the message to all the other people who are actually nominated; it's a snub that says you didn't deserve it as much because you aren't a big star.
I actually thought Hudson was very good in The Color Purple but I don't think it will be a "snub" for her to not be nominated; rather a genuine preference for other nominees, including, perhaps, the divine Ms. Brooks. Of course they could also both get nominated. Frankly, Hudson, as fine as she is as Shug, is for me giving the third most impressive featured performance by a woman in The Color Purple, after Brooks and Kalukango.
IMO, two of the biggest question marks are Phillipa vs. Carmen and Alex vs. Zachary. I'd like to see ties in these categories, but I'm not sure whether or not that will happen. I think Alex and Zachary could really go either way and there's no rhyme or reason to why one will be nominated over the other. However, with the ladies, they could go with Carmen as a way to recognize Bright Star since it probably won't nab a Best Musical nom. Also, those voters who are annoyed with the Hamilton madness won't prevent it from winning Best Musical, but they could knock it out of the Best Leading Actress race. However, on the flip side, more nominations for Hamilton = more Tonys viewership = more people coming to Bway. So, they may want to nominate Phillipa for that reason, especially if it might lead to Hamilton breaking the nominations record.
When did Phillipa Soo lose her lock for a nomination? Just a few months ago everyone was talking about Cynthia vs. Phillipa for the WIN. I don't think Cusack has knocked her out of the running at all. Like Cusack, she's received a lot of praise for her performance, plus she'll be riding the Hamilton buzz. And though this is just my opinion, I have to say I found Soo's performance to be FAR more compelling than Cusack's. I doubt Soo will win, but I would be shocked if she is not nominated. Cusack might get nominated too, but I seriously doubt it will be at the expense of Soo's nomination.
In my opinion, no one is more deserving of a nomination this season than Carmen Cusack. The life she has breathed into that part has stuck with me for weeks and weeks. I will be utterly devastated if she is not recognized with a nomination (and, for what it's worth, I do think it will come at the expense of Phillipa, who is giving a great performance as well but does not deserve the credit in the way Carmen does). We shall see!
I think Soo isn't seen as a lock because of the size of her role in comparison to the other likely nominees. Of course Hamilton has a lot of excitement around it, but Cusack carries her show and is giving a breakout performance.
I am a firm believer in serendipity- all the random pieces coming together in one wonderful moment, when suddenly you see what their purpose was all along.
What it comes to for me when I think of who I'm rooting for, particularly in the lead actress category is whether I think the show would be a totally different experience with that person. I haven't seen McDonald yet, but Cusack, Erivo, Benanti, and Mueller all were a big part of what made their respective shows for me. Soo is great, but I saw it with Alysha and didn't feel I was missing anything. (I did miss Oak when he was out, and I think I'd feel the same about Odom, Goldsberry, Diggs.) Any other year I would think she'd be a shoo-in. But there are just so many talented ladies this year who make their shows what they are.
What it comes to for me when I think of who I'm rooting for, particularly in the lead actress category is whether I think the show would be a totally different experience with that person. I haven't seen McDonald yet, but Cusack, Erivo, Benanti, and Mueller all were a big part of what made their respective shows for me.
This is is a perfect descriptor of why Cusack is more deserving of a nod than Soo. I have told many of Carmen's performance, saying in less competent hands that part could have devolved into something unspecial. But what she has been able to do is nothing short of a theatrical miracle and you know you are seeing something spectacular when you watch it. With Phillipa, she is serving a beautiful part beautifully, but you're exactly right in that many actresses could service the role equally as well without hindering the experience whatsoever.
Also, for what it's worth, Variety discusses the nominations here, and does not even mention Phillipa, saying the fifth spot will likely go to Cusack with a slight chance it will be granted to Ana Villafane (the latter portion I absolutely do not believe).
I saw both SA and H, and while I loved H, including the choreography, Glover takes his to an inspiring, technical and mind-boggling place that left me simply shaking my head…in a great way.
Here is the thing re design categories. If you are going to put Walt on the list for Tuck, without a doubt you HAVE to include Gregg Barnes for costume design. Both of them together effortlessly create a world that is magical and truly looks like a storybook. Honestly I think it is one of the most expensive looking shows on Broadway because it demonstrates great technical skill, while remaining simple