Tony Nominations-Acting

I feel like a lot of these categories have a few front runners, but after those few its hard to separate the pack. Here's my analysis of the acting categories this season. This is all just my opinion so take it with a grain of salt.

Lead actress in a musical- Seemingly the most straightforward.
Locks: Menzel, O'Hara, Mueller, Williams and Foster
In the mix: none
Dark horse: Mary Bridget Davis

Lead actor in a musical- A few at the top with a large collection of worthy nominees right behind
Locks: Karl, Mays and Harris
In the Mix: Norbert Leo Butz, Stephen Pasquale, Ramin Karimloo, and Bryce Pinkham
Dark Horse: Will Swenson, Adam Jacobs, Zachary Levi

Featured actress in a musical-One of the hardest categories in my opinion, with a ton of 'pretty good' performances but almost no show stoppers
Locks: Lena Hall,
In the mix: Kate Baldwin, Lachanze, Margot Seibert, Adriane Lenox, Lisa O'Hare, Helene Yorke, Marin Mazzie, Anika Larsen, Fantasia Barrino, Cassie Levy, Nikki M. James, Linda Emond
Dark Horse:Lauren Worsham, Betsy Wolfe, Courtney Reed, Ciara Renee, Samantha Hill

Featured actor in a musical- similar to lead actor, a few raves, and many solid performances
Locks: Iglehart and Cordero.
In the mix: Anthony Rapp, Hunter Foster,Danny Burnstein, Colin Donnell, Joshua Henry, Jonathan Freeman.
Dark Horse: James Snyder, Jake Epstein, Terrence Archie.

Lead Actress in a play- Some really solid performances, but less competitive than actor in a play this year.
Locks: Cherry Jones, Audra McDonald
In The Mix: Rebecca Hall, Rachel Weisz, Tyne Daly, Toni Colette, Marisa Tomei, LaTanya Richardson Jackson, Estelle Parsons
Dark Horse: Debra Messing, Condola Rashad,

Lead actor in a play- Possibly the hardest to predict because of the sheer number of rave performances.
Locks: Bryan Cranston
In the mix: Zachary Quinto, Chris O'Dowd, Ian Mckellen, Denzel Washington, Daniel Craig, Brian O'Byrne, Patrick Stewart, Mark Rylance
Dark Horse: James Franco, Michael C Hall, Tracy Letts, Samuel Barnett, Roger Rees, Daniel radcliffe, Patrick Page, Stephen Spinella, Tony Shaloub

Featured actress in a play-competitive for a different reason than most others. Very few rave performances leave this category pretty open.
Locks: Celia Keenan-Bolger
In the mix: Anika Noni Rose, Dearbhla Molloy, Andrea Martin, Leighton Meester, Sophie Okonedo , Jane Howdyshell
Dark Horse: Mary Elizabeth Mastrantonio, Victoria Clark, Ashley Williams

Featured actor in a play- Another very competitive category with plenty of deserving actors.
Locks: Brian J. Smith
In the Mix: Brandon J. Dirden, Peter Maloney, Shuler Hensley, Samuel Barnett, Jim Norton, Santino Fontana, Gabriel Ebert, Mark Rylance, Billy Crudup
dark Horse: Bobby Steggert, Frederick Weller, Tom McGowan, Reed Birney, Alessandro Nivola, Michael Cumpsty.

Please let me know if you feel like anyone else should be on this list, or if I've put someone in the wrong section. Also, I would love your input on what you think should/will happen.

Updated On: 4/28/14 at 04:50 PM

I'd agree with Smaxie. Rylance's Tony for Olivia is all sewn up, in my opinion.

And I'm not sure that Jayne Houdyshell is a lock, either.



My guesses:

Best Actress in a Play:
Cherry Jones
Audra McDonald
Rebecca Hall
Tyne Daly
Latanya Richardson Jackson

Best Actor in a Play:
Bryan Cranston
Zachary Quinto
Mark Rylance
Daniel Radcliffe
Denzel Washington

Best Featured Actress in a Play:
Anika Noni Rose
Celia Keenan-Bolger
Dearbhla Molloy
Sophie Okonedo
Mary Elizabeth Mastrantonio

Best Featured Actor in a Play:
Mark Rylance
Reed Birney
Samuel Barnett
Brian J. Smith
Peter Maloney

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Updated On: 4/16/14 at 05:01 PM

Kad-I've added Okonedo and Richardson Jackson to the list. Thanks for those. My reason behind having Mark Rylance so low on featured was that I think his nomination in lead might lose him featured noms. any thoughts on this?
a few questions if you don't mind. Why Radcliffe and Washington over O'Dowd? Also could you explain your exclusion of the actors from Godot/NML in both categories? any reasoning behind your choices for featured actress would be welcome as well because I'm trying to reason through the options myself.

According to the the LA Times Goldderby site, best actor in a play is going to be a straight shoot-out between Bryan Cranston and Denzel Washington;

http://www.goldderby.com/news/6074/tony-awards-preview-denzel-washington-vs-bryan-cranston-for-best-actor-(play).html

It makes sense. Washington has gotten outstanding reviews. confounding expectations that the age difference between himself and the character he played would prove a huge folly. This is the first production of Raisin In The Sun in awhile that I can recall where the actor who played Walter Lee Younger got the strongest notices in the play. Usually it's the 3 female roles that stand out more. And while the entire ensemble has gotten excellent notices, Washington seems to have been singled out the most. According to entertainment weekly, Raisin is now the biggest hit of the season, and when the President and First Lady attend your play, you know it's a a major event. Washington is a lock for the nomination, and right now I think Cranston is the only one who can beat him.

This feels almost like a redux of 2010, with Cranston as Alfred Molina in Red, and Washington as himself in Fences. That ended in a victory for Washington, over Molina who had an amazingly strong play in Red, but still lost. Cranston does not have as strong a production in All The Way, so he's even more vulnerable than Molina was.

This race will be very exciting, imho.

Updated On: 4/16/14 at 07:44 PM

I agree that James Monroe Iglehart is a lock for Featured Actor, although he has/leads so many songs: Arabian Nights, Friend Like Me, Friend Like Me Reprise, Prince Ali, and Somebody's Got Your Back. With that many songs, he should be a Lead Actor.

I hope Jonathan Freeman gets nominated for Featured Actor, he was superb, vocally and physically. With the difficult task of being comedic and still be a menace.

The producers don't submit anyone.

Updated On: 4/16/14 at 08:25 PM

I don't know how Joel Grey may have affected this, but there is no rule stating that producers have to submit performers and/or that nominators can only choose from submitted performers.

"In order to be eligible, an actor or actress must perform in the role on the production’s opening night and must perform in the minimum number of performances to which the producer of such production must invite and make tickets available to Tony voters as required by Rule 2(a)vi)."

http://www.tonyawards.com/en_US/about/2014_Tony_Rules_and_Regulations_with_cover.pdf
(top of page 12)

MNC77, I created a thread attempting to list all of the nominees. Perhaps it will help.

Tony Award Eligibility - Acting

Let's clear this up once and for all. There is no submission process. Every actor who performs on opening night is eligible. An actors's category eligibility is determined by his title page billing. Actors billed above the title are deemed to be in the leading categories and actors billed below the title are deemed to be featured actors. If a show wants to attempt to have an actor's eligibility moved to a category different from how they would be designated based on their billing, the producer must submit a letter to the Tony administrative committee requesting a change within 2 weeks of the show's opening night. The committee hen meets and rules in the requested changes. Similarly, the administrative committee has the rich to make any designations they feel are appropriate regardless of the billing . The administrative committee is different than the nominating committee which is bound to select its nominations based on the category designations decided by the administrative committee.

In the case if Joel Grey and Chicago, his producers requested he be considered as a featured actor despite being billed above the title BUT they sent the letter in AFTER the 2 week deadline had expired. Therefore their request was denied.

My guesses (and a few wishes):

Leading Actress In A Musical
Idina Menzel - If/Then
Kelli O'Hara - The Bridges Of Madison County
Mary Bridget Davies - A Night With Janis Joplin
Michelle Williams - Cabaret
Sutton Foster - Violet

Leading Actor In A Musical
Andy Karl - Rocky
Jefferson Mays - A Gentleman's Guide To Love And Murder
Neil Patrick Harris - Hedwig And The Angry Inch
Norbert Leo Butz - Big Fish
Steven Pasquale - The Bridges Of Madison County

Featured Actress In A Musical
Ciara Renee - Big Fish
Helene Yorke - Bullets Over Broadway
Kate Baldwin - Big Fish
Linda Emond - Cabaret
Margo Seibert - Rocky

Featured Actor In A Musical
Danny Burstein - Cabaret
Hunter Foster - The Bridges Of Madison County
James M. Iglehart - Aladdin
Joshua Henry - Violet
Terence Archie-Rocky


Leading Actress In A Play
Audra McDonald - Lady Day
Cherry Jones - The Glass Menagerie
Marisa Tomei - The Realistic Joneses
Rachel Weisz - Betrayal
Toni Collette - The Realistic Joneses

Leading Actor In A Play
Bryan Cranston - All The Way
Ian McKellen - Waiting For Godot
Mark Rylance - Richard III
Michael C. Hall - The Realistic Joneses
Tracy Letts - The Realistic Joneses

Featured Actress In A Play
Anika Noni Rose - A Raisin In The Sun
Celia Keenan-Bolger - The Glass Menagerie
Jayne Houdyshell - Romeo & Juliet
Mary Elizabeth Mastrantonio - The Winslow Boy
Sophie Okonedo - A Raisin In The Sun

Featured Actor In A Play
Billy Crudup - No Man's Land
Brandon J. Dirden - All the Way
Danny Burstein - The Snow Geese
Mark Rylance - Twelfth Night
Santino Fontana - Act One

Here goes:

ACTOR IN A PLAY
Bryan Cranston, ALL THE WAY
Chris O'Dowd, OF MICE AND MEN
Roger Rees, THE WINSLOW BOY
Tony Shalhoub, ACT ONE
Denzel Washington, A RAISIN IN THE SUN

ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Toni Collette, THE REALISTIC JONESES
Tyne Daly, MOTHERS AND SONS
LaTanya Richardson Jackson, A RAISIN IN THE SUN
Cherry Jones, THE GLASS MENAGERIE
Audra McDonald, LADY DAY AT EMERSON'S BAR AND GRILL

FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY
Reed Birney, CASA VALENTINA
Paul Chadiha, TWELFTH NIGHT
Peter Maloney, OUTSIDE MULLINGAR
Mark Rylance, TWELFTH NIGHT
Brian J. Smith, THE GLASS MENAGERIE

FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Sarah Greene, THE CRIPPLE OF INISHMAAN
Celia Keenan-Bolger, THE GLASS MENAGERIE
Dearbhla Molloy, OUTSIDE MULLINGAR
Sophie Okonedo, A RAISIN IN THE SUN
Mare Winningham, CASA VALENTINA

ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Neil Patrick Harris, HEDWIG AND THE ANGRY INCH
Ramin Karimloo, LES MISERABLES
Andy Karl, ROCKY
Jefferson Mays, A GENTLEMAN'S GUIDE TO LOVE AND MURDER
Bryce Pinkham, A GENTLEMAN'S GUIDE TO LOVE AND MURDER

ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Sutton Foster, VIOLET
Idina Menzel, IF THEN
Jessie Mueller, BEAUTIFUL
Kelli O'Hara, THE BRIDGES OF MADISON COUNTY
Michelle Williams, CABARET

FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Danny Burstein, CABARET
Nick Cordero, BULLETS OVER BROADWAY
Collin Donnell, VIOLET
James Monroe Iglehart, ALADDIN
Jarrod Spector, BEAUTIFUL

FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Linda Emond, CABARET
Anika Larsen, BEAUTIFUL
Adrianne Lennox, AFTER MIDNIGHT
Marin Mazzie, Bullets Over Broadway
Margo Siebert, ROCKY

And sorry to thread-jack, but the others:

MUSICAL
After Midnight
Beautiful
Bullets Over Broadway
A Gentleman's Guide To Love And Murder

PLAY
Act One
All The Way
Casa Valentina
Outside Mullingar

REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
Cabaret
Hedwig and the Angry Inch
Violet

REVIVAL OF A PLAY
The Cripple of Inishmaan
The Glass Menagerie
A Raisin In The Sun
Twelfth Night

DIRECTOR OF A PLAY
Tim Carroll, TWELFTH NIGHT
James Lapine, ACT ONE
Bill Rauch, ALL THE WAY
John Tiffany, THE GLASS MENAGERIE

DIRECTOR OF A MUSICAL
Michael Mayer, HEDWIG AND THE ANGRY INCH
Alex Timbers, ROCKY
Leigh Silverman, VIOLET
Darko Tresjnak, A GENTLEMAN'S GUIDE TO LOVE AND MURDER

CHOREOGRAPHY
Warren Carlyle, AFTER MIDNIGHT
Casey Nicholaw, ALADDIN
Josh Prince, BEAUTIFUL
Susan Stromam, BULLETS OVER BROADWAY

SCORE
Aladdin
The Bridges of Madison County
A Gentleman's Guide To Love And Murder
If Then

BOOK
Beautiful
The Bridges of Madison County
Bullets Over Broadway
A Gentleman's Guide To Love And Murder

ORCHESTRATIONS
Beautiful
The Bridges of Madison County
Bullets Over Broadway
A Gentleman's Guide To Love And Murder

SCENIC DESIGN (PLAY)
Act One
The Cripple of Inishmaan
The Glass Menagerie
Machinal

LIGHTING DESIGN (PLAY)
Act One
The Cripple of Inishmaan
The Glass Menagerie
Machinal

COSTUME DESIGN (PLAY)
Act One
Casa Valentina
Twelfth Night
The Winslow Boy

SOUND DESIGN (PLAY)
All The Way
The Glass Menagerie
Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grille
Machinal

SCENIC DESIGN (MUSICAL)
Aladdin
Bullets Over Broadway
A Gentleman's Guide To Love And Murder
Rocky

LIGHTING DESIGN (MUSICAL)
Bullets Over Broadway
A Gentleman's Guide To Love And Murder
Hedwig and the Angry Inch
Rocky

COSTUME DESIGN (MUSICAL)
Aladdin
Beautiful
Bullets Over Broadway
A Gentleman's Guide To Love And Murder

SOUND DESIGN (MUSICAL)
After Midnight
A Gentleman's Guide To Love And Murder
Hedwig and the Angry Inch
Rocky