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#26

Tony Predictions

Posted: 4/8/11 at 4:13pm

No way Kerry Butler is winning. I enjoyed her performance very much, and Fly Fly Away is a great song, but it's not a Tony role. Especially with James, Clark and Benanti in the category.

"Art, in itself, is an attempt to bring order out of chaos."-Stephen Sondheim

#27

Best Play:
Good People

Best Revival of a Play:
The Merchant of Venice

Best Actor in a Play:
Mark Rylance, Jerusalem

Best Actress in a Play:
Lily Rabe, The Merchant of Venice

Featured Actress in a Play:
Judith Light, Lombardi

#28

Tony Predictions

Posted: 4/8/11 at 5:10pm

Best Musical/Book/Score
The Book of Morman

Best Revival of a Musical
How to Succeed...

Best Leading Actor in a Musical
Andrew Rannels for Book of Mormon

Best Leading Actress in a Musical
Patina Miller for Sister Act

Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Colin Donnel for Anything Goes

Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Nikki M. James for Book of Mormon

Best Actor in a Play
Mark Rylance for Jerusalem

Best New Play
War Horse

#29

Tony Predictions

Posted: 4/8/11 at 5:28pm

Best Musical: The Book of Mormon
Best Revival of a Musical: Anything Goes
Best Director of a Musical: Casey Nicholaw and Trey Parker, Book of Mormon
Best Choreography: Kathleen Marshall, Anything Goes
Best Score: Scottsboro Boys
Best Book: Book of Mormon
Best Actor in a Musical: Tony Sheldon, Priscilla Queen of the Desert
Best Actress in a Musical: Sutton Foster, Anything Goes
Best Featured Actor in a Musical: Rory O'Malley, The Book of Mormon
Best Featured Actress in a Musical: Kerry Butler, Catch Me if You Can

Best Play: Good People
Best Revival of a Play: The Merchant of Venice
Best Director of a Play: Daniel Sullivan
Best Actor in a Play: Mark Rylance, Jerusalem
Best Actress in a Play: Frances McDormand, Good People
Featured Actor in a Play: Arian Moayed, Bengal Tiger
Featured Actress in a Play: Renee Elise Goldsberry, Good People

#30

Tony Predictions

Posted: 4/8/11 at 5:39pm

Best Musical:
The Book of Mormon**
Catch Me if You Can
Priscilla Queen of the Desert
Sister Act

Best Revival of a Musical:
Anything Goes**
How to Succeed

Best Actor in a Musical:
Josh Gad, The Book of Mormon
Daniel Radcliffe, How to Succeed
Andrew Rannells, The Book of Mormon
Tony Sheldon, Priscilla Queen of the Desert
Aaron Tveit, Catch Me if You Can**

Best Actress in a Musical:
Sutton Foster, Anything Goes**
Rose Hemingway, How to Succeed
Beth Leavel, Baby It's You
Patina Miller, Sister Act
Donna Murphy, The People in the Picture

Best Featured Actor in a Musical:
Adam Godley, Anything Goes
John Laroquette, How to Succeed
Rory O'Malley, The Book of Mormon**
Tom Wopat, Catch Me if You Can
Chip Zien, The People in the Picture

Best Featured Actress in a Musical:
Tammy Blanchard, How to Succeed
Kerry Butler, Catch Me if You Can
Victoria Clark, Sister Act**
Nikki M. James, The Book of Mormon
Jessica Walter, Anything Goes

Formerly SirNotAppearing - Joined 3/08

Updated On: 4/9/11 at 05:39 PM

#31

Tony Predictions

Posted: 4/8/11 at 5:41pm

you all do know that road presenters are the majority of voters for the tony award right?
Like when Utown won best book, music director and lost to Millie
or MEMPHIS, the worst tony winning musical in recent memory losing to FELA or even Aidiot.

You think road presenters are going to vote for a show that wont tour? good luck

#32

Tony Predictions

Posted: 4/8/11 at 5:46pm

^Avenue Q won over Wicked.
Spring Awakening won over Mary Poppins

I don't really think it matters.

#33

Tony Predictions

Posted: 4/8/11 at 5:51pm

Best Musical:
Book of Mormon **
Sister Act
Catch Me if You Can
Priscilla

Best Play:
Good People **
War Horse
Jerusalem
Bengal Tiger..

Best Revival of a Musical:
Anything Goes **
How to Succeed

Best Revival of a Play:
Importance of Being Earnest **
Merchant of Venice
Arcadia
The Normal Heart

Best Score:
Book of Mormon **
Catch Me If You Can
Scottsboro Boys
Sister Act

Best Book:
Book of Mormon **
Priscilla
Catch Me if You Can
Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson

Best Actor (Musical):
Aaron Tveit
Daniel Radcliffe
Andrew Rannells/Josh Gad
Tony Sheldon
** Unsure yet of how this will play out, really. I'd like to see Benjamin Walker nominated, but it was a while ago and I feel like they'd want to reward Radcliffe with a nomination this time. The Mormon boys could either end up here, though I doubt both will. And sorry, Josh Gad is NOT FEATURED. He has as much to do as Rannells, and the musical focuses moreso on him. Just because it's a character role doesn't mean it's featured. **

Best Actress (Musical):
Sutton Foster **
Patina Miller
Janet Decal
...?
Is this category really as weak as I think it is...?

Best Featured Actor (Musical):
Rory O'Malley **
Norbert Leo Butz
Nick Adams
Joel Grey

Best Featured Actress (Musical):
Nikki M. James **
Victoria Clark
Kerry Butler
Kate Shindle

Best Actor (Play):
Mark Rylance **
Robin Williams
Joe Mantello
Al Pacino
** This is a tough category. Will they throw over Al Pacino or Robin Williams for Brian Bedford? Will they reward the actors in The Normal Heart even though it's a staged reading? Will Arcadia's actors be rewarded?

Best Actress (Play):
Frances McDormand **
Edie Falco
Nina Arianda
Kathleen Turner

I can't even go into the featured actors for play. It's tough.

Overall, I think the productions that opened in the fall are at a severe disadvantage, regardless of their quality. There are quite a few wonderful productions opening now that the early openers of the season will find themselves overshadowed simply by timing... those expecting a Scottsboro Boys win for anything, I think, will be disappointed. Award organizations tend to have short memories when it comes to things opening- timing is as crucial as quality in many regards.

"...everyone finally shut up, and the audience could enjoy the beginning of the Anatevka Pogram in peace."

#34

Tony Predictions

Posted: 4/8/11 at 5:53pm

do you really think they are going to petition Norbert Leo Butz for featured seeing as he is above the title.

And I Am Always So Vitriolic

#35

Tony Predictions

Posted: 4/8/11 at 5:57pm

I don't know, really. I have yet to see Catch Me..., so I don't really know if it's a co-star situation are if Aaron Tveit is far and away the lead. If Tveit dominates stage time, it's possible- the "above the title" thing is not always a hard-and-fast rule.

Book of Mormon is a bit complicated because Rannells and Gads are inarguably co-stars- they have virtually the same amount of stage time and things to do, much like Broderick and Lane in The Producers.

"...everyone finally shut up, and the audience could enjoy the beginning of the Anatevka Pogram in peace."

#36

Tony Predictions

Posted: 4/8/11 at 6:04pm

I def think Jessica Walter will get a nod in featured.
I also think Ranells and Gad and Tviet and Butz will all be considered Leads (making that category a bit crowded, someone great will be left out) therefore leaving O'Malley and Wopat Duking it out for featured.

And yes, the leading Actress in a Musical is especially weak this year, most of the big shows have no Leading Ladies at all, leaving room for Sherie and probably Janet also.

Updated On: 4/8/11 at 06:04 PM

#37

Tony Predictions

Posted: 4/8/11 at 6:37pm

wicked and mary poppins didn't need help selling tix.
Catch me will.
Millie did.

#38

Tony Predictions

Posted: 4/8/11 at 7:22pm

i know it's not hard and fast as a rule as far as billing but most times people are bumped up not down when they are above the title.

And I Am Always So Vitriolic

#39

Tony Predictions

Posted: 4/8/11 at 7:26pm

These are always so much fun to read.

#40

Tony Predictions

Posted: 4/8/11 at 8:24pm

With The Book of Mormon and The Scottsboro Boys in the mix, I just don't see how Catch Me If You Can can win score.

A little swash, a bit of buckle - you'll love it more than bread.

#41

Tony Predictions

Posted: 4/8/11 at 11:09pm

Musical - The Book of Mormon
Play - Good People
Musical Revival - Anything Goes
Play Revival - The Merchant of Venice
Book of a Musical - The Book of Mormon
Original Score - The Book of Mormon
Actor in a Musical - Daniel Radcliffe
Actor in a Play - Mark Rylance (Jerusalem)
Actress in a Musical - Sutton Foster
Actress in a Play - Frances McDormand
Featured Actor in a Musical - Rory O'Malley
Featured Actor in a Play - Arian Moayed
Featured Actress in a Musical - Nikki M. James
Featured Actress in a Play - Renee Elise Goldsberry
Choreography - Casey Nicholaw
Direction of a Musical - Casey Nicholaw & Trey Parker
Direction of a Play - Daniel Sullivan (The Merchant of Venice)

#42

Tony Predictions

Posted: 4/9/11 at 1:55am

So tour presenters won't vote for a show that won't tour, so they voted for 'Avenue Q' over 'Wicked' and 'Spring Awakening' over 'Mary Poppins' because the latter shows were selling and the former show really need the imprimatur of the Tony to sell on the road? So how do you explain the years when very popular shows like 'Hairspray,' 'Spamalot' or 'Jersey Boys' won Best Musical? By that reasoning, the Tony voters should've rewarded, say, 'Light in the Piazza' or 'Dirty Rotten Scoundrels' over 'Spamalot,' because 'Piazza' or 'Scoundrels' were tougher sells out of town.

I've also heard the theory that road presenters picked 'Memphis' last year because they thought it would be an easier sell on the road than 'Fela!' But if road presenters picked what potentially might sell best, why not pick a rock musical with a brand name ('American Idiot') or a show with 4 pop-music legends ('Million Dollar Quartet')?

Which way is it? Do road presenters pick Tony winners based on how much they can help a hard-to-market show? Or do they pick the crowd favorite that'll make them the most money?

Or maybe, just maybe, each road presenter has his/her individual taste, and they pick on which show they enjoyed most. In the case of 'Memphis' for Best Musical, the Tony voters weren't exactly breaking new ground. 'Memphis' had won the Outer Critics Circle and Drama Desk Awards for Best Musical before the Tonys. Those awards were voted on by journalists, who have no commercial interests at stake. They don't care what tours. They picked what they thought deserved to win.

#43

Tony Predictions

Posted: 4/9/11 at 8:16am

Hasn't that "tour voting thing" been bunked?
Didn't I read that the number of those voters is not as large or influential as first reported?

#44

Tony Predictions

Posted: 4/9/11 at 5:19pm

Best Musical: Book of Mormon
Best Book of a Musical: Book of Mormon
Best Score: Scottsboro Boys
Best Actor in a Musical: Tony Sheldon
Best Actress in a Musical: Patina Miller
Best Play: Good People
Best Actor in a Play: Robin Williams
Best Actress in a Play: Frances McDormand
Best Director of a Play: Brian Bedford
Best Revival of a Play: The Importance of Being Earnest
Best Featured Actor in a Musical: Rory O'Malley
Best Featured Actress in a Musical: Nikki M. James or Victoria Clark
I have no idea for the featured actor/actress in a play categories. (I kind of think Estelle Parsons could get featured actress in a play)
Best Direction of a Musical: Casey Nicholaw and Trey Parker

#45

Tony Predictions

Posted: 4/9/11 at 5:30pm

Best Musical: Book of Mormon
Best Book of a Musical: Book of Mormon
Best Score: Sister Act/Catch Me If You Can
Best Actor in a Musical: Aaron Tveit
Best Actress in a Musical: Sutton Foster/Patina Miller
Best Featured Actor in a Musical: Norbert Leo Butz
Best Featured Actress in a Musical: Laura Benanti
Best Revival of a Musical: How to Succeed

#46

Tony Predictions

Posted: 4/9/11 at 6:45pm

Best Musical: Book of Mormon
Best Book of a Musical: Book of Mormon
Best Score: Book of Mormon
Best Actor in a Musical: Daniel Radcliffe will probably beat Tony Sheldon in a close race
Best Actress in a Musical: Sutton Foster will beat out Patina Miller in a close race
Best Play: War Horse has it locked
Best Actor in a Play: Mark Rylance will beat Robin Williams in a close race
Best Actress in a Play: Frances McDormand
Best Director of a Play: Brian Bedford
Best Revival of a Play: The Importance of Being Earnest
Best Featured Actor in a Musical: Rory O'Malley
Best Featured Actress in a Musical: Victoria Clark has it sewn up
I have no idea for the featured actor/actress in a play: Estelle Parsons
Best Direction of a Musical: Casey Nicholaw and Trey Parker

"It does what a musical is supposed to do; it takes you to another world. And it gives you a little tune to carry in your head. Something to take you away from the dreary horrors of the real world. A little something for when you're feeling blue. You know?"

#47

Tony Predictions

Posted: 4/9/11 at 8:09pm

Now I've seen Mormon and loved it but I was pretty confident that Tony Sheldon would win Best Featured?

#48

Tony Predictions

Posted: 4/9/11 at 9:09pm

Yeah, wouldn't Sheldon be more likely nominated for Best Featured? If Priscilla petitions for that, I think he'd have a better chance of winning that than best leading actor.

Formerly 'dramarama2'

#49

Tony Predictions

Posted: 4/9/11 at 9:24pm

Best Actress: Sutton Foster (Anything Goes) or Janet Dacal (Wonderland)
Best Supporting Actress : Kate Shindle (Wonderland)
Best Actor: Daniel Radcliffe (How To Succed......)
Best Supporting Actor : Nick Adams (Priscilla Queen of the Desert)
Best Musical : Wonderland
Best Choreography : Anything Goes (sorry, i dont know the person who did it)
Best Book : Catch Me If You Can
Best Revival : Anything Goes
Best Lighting : Priscilla Queen of the Desert
Best Actor in a Play : Paul Reubens (The Pee-Wee Herman Show)
Best Play : The Pee-Wee Herman

#50

Tony Predictions

Posted: 4/9/11 at 11:18pm

I haven't seen the other plays (I have tickets for Jerusalem on the 20th) but I can not imagine anything is better than War Horse. I'll be supremely disappointed if that does not win Best Play.

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