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#26

re: Tony Upsets

Posted: 5/18/07 at 9:35am

Testing, again as I said above, an "upset" has to do with the show that is widely expected to win losingto someone else. While I wouldn't be completely shocked if Radio Golf won due to the sentimental factor, it is widely expected for Utopia to sweep the awards, including Best Play. It has won all of the awards up until now, garnered rave reviews all around, and posted a long extension. This is the show to beat. Everyone is expecting it to win, so Radio Golf winning would be an upset, even if it wouldn't surprise some people for various reasons.

#27

re: Tony Upsets

Posted: 5/18/07 at 9:56am

All of the awards that UTOPIA has won have been announced while the show was open.

The show is closed now. Let's see who wins the Drama Desk.

With UTOPIA being closed, I wouldn't exactly say that everyone can expect a UTOPIA sweep.

RADIO GOLF is August Wilson's last play. It is also a glorious play and production and deserves to be seen, and will only last on Broadway and pay tribute to Wilson if it wins the top prize. I would not be surprised to see it take Best Play and Best Featured Actor (Chisholm) while UTOPIA takes Set Design, Costume Design, Lighting Design, and probably Director -- that's 4 Tony Awards (though I wouldn't be surprised by a Best Director upset for JOURNEY'S END).

I honestly don't think UTOPIA is going to sweep the way some may suspect. In terms of the five acting awards it is nominated for, UTOPIA is the play that has the least character development of any play this season.

I see Featured Actress going to Elbrick for CORAM BOY, Leading Actor going to Langella (with a possible upset by Boyd Gaines), and Leading Actress going to White.

What I can see is a JOURNEY'S END sweep. That would not surprise me. The little show with raves across the board that stuck it out until the end of the season. JOURNEY'S END proved that you don't need a cast of 60, big words and ideas, and extravagant sets to put on a glorious, top notch piece of theatre.

"Winning a Tony this year is like winning Best Attendance in third grade: no one will care but the winner and their mom."
-Kad

"I have also met him in person, and I find him to be quite funny actually. Arrogant and often misinformed, but still funny."
-bjh2114 (on Michael Riedel)

Updated On: 5/18/07 at 09:56 AM

#28

re: Tony Upsets

Posted: 5/18/07 at 10:36am

I didn't mind Jonathan Groff in Spring Awakening, but extraordinary?

IdinaMenzel - I was surprised when Kristin chenoweth didn't get the nomination as well. Probably most people were. Personally, I found her to be good but I don't like such typecasting, and I don't think she would have won anyway. I have no idea what the reason behind her lack of a nomination is, but it's gotta be something.

I mean, Denzel Washington? Gun to my head..of course.

#29

re: Tony Upsets

Posted: 5/18/07 at 10:41am

For leading men in a musical I'm guessing it's between Michael and Raúl - But I'd LOVE to see DHP take it :)

#30

re: Tony Upsets

Posted: 5/18/07 at 10:48am

I knew that one previous Tony winner would have to be kicked out of the race in order to let in a newbie, but I was not expecting Chenoweth to be the one kicked out, and Bundy to be the one let in.

However much certain people dislike Chenoweth or feel that she is being repeatedly type cast, she gave a damn fine helluva tour de force in THE APPLE TREE and she deserved that nomination over Debra Monk's nothing role in CURTAINS. I'd like to see Monk attempt to take on a role that requires the caliber of range that Chenoweth's multiple roles in THE APPLE TREE required.

#31

re: Tony Upsets

Posted: 5/18/07 at 12:33pm

<< Testing, again as I said above, an "upset" has to do with the show that is widely expected to win losingto someone else. While I wouldn't be completely shocked if Radio Golf won due to the sentimental factor, it is widely expected for Utopia to sweep the awards, including Best Play. It has won all of the awards up until now, garnered rave reviews all around, and posted a long extension. This is the show to beat. Everyone is expecting it to win, so Radio Golf winning would be an upset, even if it wouldn't surprise some people for various reasons.
>>

Bjh,

I wasnt really responding to your post -- I was responding in general. I just dont think that "Utopia" is as much of a lock as you think. Is there a "sentimental" factor in regards to "RG" ? No doubt. Do I think that "RG" might win because of it? No- I think it might win because its a great production, with first-rate acting, written by a brilliant man.

And as I stated earlier... a win by the other nominated shows would do nothing for them at the box office, (the only should it could have a bearing on is "F/N") and if that is a consideration at all, "Radio Golf" could win.

#32

re: Tony Upsets

Posted: 5/18/07 at 12:47pm

I don't agree that Radio Golf is a superb production. As most of the reviews said, it's not Wilson's best writing, the acting was not that great with the exceptions of Jelks and Chisholm, and the direction is fairly poor. The only things it has going for it are the fact that it is August Wilson's last play in the cycle, and those two featured actors.

#33

re: Tony Upsets

Posted: 5/18/07 at 12:54pm

Remember, the awards are decided by numerous voters, (many of whom would like to actually make money by presenting musical theater tours), not handed out based on proclamations by the Tony nominating committee.

Poppins will get best musical.

"I have got to have some professional music!" - Big Edie

#34

re: Tony Upsets

Posted: 5/18/07 at 1:00pm

I think your prediction is wrong, Tech. Even if every road voter selected MARY POPPINS, all of the New Yorkers are going to select SPRING AWAKENING and it will still triumph. The road voters are in the minority.

#35

re: Tony Upsets

Posted: 5/18/07 at 1:01pm

Wanna Be a Foster-After observing some of your comments, are you in Spring Awakening? Honestly...

"I chose and my world was shaken. So what? The choice may have been mistaken. The choosing was not."-Sunday in the Park with George

#36

re: Tony Upsets

Posted: 5/18/07 at 1:06pm

No, raphael06, dear. Many people on this board who have met me in person can tell you that I am not an actor. But thank you for the complement.

Approximately 15% percent of Tony voters are road presenters.

That is not enough for POPPINS to win.

Updated On: 5/18/07 at 01:06 PM

#37

re: Tony Upsets

Posted: 5/18/07 at 1:11pm

I don't think that winning the Best Musical Tony has that much of an impact on how a show does on the road. A little, maybe, but not a lot, so I don't get why the road voters vote with their wallets at times.

MARY POPPINS has enough of a built-in fan base, I don't think winning the Best Musical Tony would result in that much more business on the road.

And WICKED didn't win Best Musical, but that hasn't effected its touring success at all.

I don't think the Best Musical Tony really means all that much in terms of touring success.

think the definition of an upset is if the person who is pretty much universally expected to win ends up losing to someone else. I think the only categories this applies to are leading actress in a musical, best play, and best revival of a play.

I would add Leading Actor in a Play to that list. I would consider Langella losing a significant upset.

"One no longer loves one's insight enough once one communicates it."

The opposite of creation isn't war, it's stagnation.

#38

re: Tony Upsets

Posted: 5/18/07 at 1:12pm

Foster is right. People always say that the most commercial show will win because of the out of town vote. But that's only true if the show is actually high enough in quality to garner much of the New York vote too. That's why Wicked didn't beat Avenue Q (well it's not the only reason, but it's one of them). The New York voters didn't like Wicked, along with the critics. Even if all of the out of towners had picked Wicked over Avenue Q, Q still would have won.

#39

re: Tony Upsets

Posted: 5/18/07 at 1:16pm

"I would add Leading Actor in a Play to that list. I would consider Langella losing a significant upset."

I don't agree. Langella did get raves across the board, but so did Schreiber, Gaines, and Plummer. The only person who is guaranteed to NOT win is Brian F. O'Byrne. I would not at all be surprised if Gaines, Plummer, or Screiber takes it. Who knows, the voters might end up seeing Langella's performance as just a good impression rather than a heartfelt performance. I doubt it will happen, but I wouldn't put it past them.

#40

re: Tony Upsets

Posted: 5/18/07 at 1:16pm

<< I don't agree that Radio Golf is a superb production. As most of the reviews said, it's not Wilson's best writing, the acting was not that great with the exceptions of Jelks and Chisholm, and the direction is fairly poor. The only things it has going for it are the fact that it is August Wilson's last play in the cycle, and those two featured actors.
>>

I had stated this in a different thread---- proclaiming that it's not Wilson's best writing is the equivalent of stating that a BMW is not as good as a Rolls Royce .... They are both great, but one has to be better- The man is/was an amazing playwright.

You also stated previously, if I remember correctly, that you were not familiar with all of his works. As far as the acting---
its a 5-person cast--- How many are supposed to be "great"?

Lennix is very good, as is Williams- They are simply outshined by an amazing Jelks, and a performance by Chisholm that is out somewhere in the stratoshere, and could win him a Tony.

The only one that is not VERY good, IMHO, is Pinkins, in an understated role. Has a lot more going for it than what you think. You just feel that way because you didnt care for it.

#41

re: Tony Upsets

Posted: 5/18/07 at 1:23pm

"Supercalifragilis-no-masturbating-teens
Families buying tickets, that's exactly what that means
We don't show our naughty bits so you'll make lots more green
Oh, Supercalifragilis-no-masturbating-teens"

You guys might be right about SA beating Poppins, we'll see. I agree with others who've speculated that Poppins got this nomination over Legally Blonde just to protect Spring Awakening's trophy.

I also think the debacle with the promised Avenue Q tour works in Poppins favor.

"I have got to have some professional music!" - Big Edie

#42

re: Tony Upsets

Posted: 5/18/07 at 1:29pm

Actually Testing, Lennix wasn't very good at all. In my opinion, he and Pinkins were very off, as was James Williams. I agree that it isn't required for an entire cast of 5 to be great, but the leading actor is doing just that...LEADING. If he's not good, how can he lead the rest of the cast in a great production? Also, you're right, I am not familiar with ALL of Wilson's work, but I am very familiar with a good 4 of them. And those other ones that I know where all superior in my opinion as written plays. Plus, even if I don't know the other 5 plays from the cycle as well, the reviews all said the same thing. I am just stating what the common opinion of the show was. That's all.

#43

re: Tony Upsets

Posted: 5/18/07 at 1:30pm

I haven't even seen "SA" yet (definitely in the minority, I know--- going on 6/20), but if "MP" wins (and let me also add that we are DisneyWorld AP holders, and HUGE Disney fans--- I have no anti-Disney bias), I will lose all faith in the Broadway Musical. Wow.. if "MP" is the "best" out there... OY !!

#44

re: Tony Upsets

Posted: 5/18/07 at 1:39pm

<< Actually Testing, Lennix wasn't very good at all. In my opinion, he and Pinkins were very off, as was James Williams. I agree that it isn't required for an entire cast of 5 to be great, but the leading actor is doing just that...LEADING. If he's not good, how can he lead the rest of the cast in a great production? Also, you're right, I am not familiar with ALL of Wilson's work, but I am very familiar with a good 4 of them. And those other ones that I know where all superior in my opinion as written plays. Plus, even if I don't know the other 5 plays from the cycle as well, the reviews all said the same thing. I am just stating what the common opinion of the show was. That's all.
>>

Definitely entitled to your opinion--- we will just have to agree to disagree with this one. I will just repeat (and it makes no difference if the reviewers said it or anyone else said it)--- stating that "Radio Golf" is not as good as Wilson's best work, does not mean that it is not great.

#45

re: Tony Upsets

Posted: 5/18/07 at 1:46pm

Tech, not one New Yorker is going to vote for POPPINS. Maybe a few GREY GARDENS. Even less will select CURTAINS. But the overwhelming majority of New Yorkers will select SPRING AWAKENING. The show has been embraced by the entire theatre community. Critics and columnists consistently rave about it. I have not read one disparaging article about SPRING AWAKENING from a legit writer of a legit publication. Even Riedel loves it.

Hypothetical Votes By Percentage:

15% (Road Voters) - All vote for MARY POPPINS.
10% (New Yorkers) - Vote GREY GARDENS.
5% (New Yorkers) - Vote CURTAINS.
70% (New Yorkers) - Vote SPRING AWAKENING.

And I'm being quite generous here. I honestly think that the strong majority of New Yorkers are going to vote SPRING for Best Musical.

GREY GARDENS will get awards for its shining points -- Ebersole and Wilson.

The only shot CURTAINS has at winning anything is for Pierce, with the miniscule possibility of a Ziemba upset.

Neither GREY GARDENS nor CURTAINS are -- as a whole -- "The Best Musical Of The Season" in the eyes of New Yorkers. SPRING AWAKENING takes that cake.

#46

re: Tony Upsets

Posted: 5/18/07 at 1:58pm

Now I know that for some strange reason Foster has me blocked, but I really wish that he didn't.

What on EARTH are you babbling on about? You pulling these percentages out of your ass and passing them off as near-fact is one of the dumbest things I have ever seen.

Someone KINDLY respost that so his Highness can see it. Tool.

Oh, and when someone asked you if you were in SPRING AWAKENING...that wasn't meant to be a compliment.

"If you are going to do something, do it well. And leave something witchy." -Charlie Manson

#47

re: Tony Upsets

Posted: 5/18/07 at 2:10pm

Eh, why not?

To Foster from munk:

"Now I know that for some strange reason Foster has me blocked, but I really wish that he didn't.

What on EARTH are you babbling on about? You pulling these percentages out of your ass and passing them off as near-fact is one of the dumbest things I have ever seen.

Someone KINDLY respost that so his Highness can see it."

"One no longer loves one's insight enough once one communicates it."

The opposite of creation isn't war, it's stagnation.

#48

re: Tony Upsets

Posted: 5/18/07 at 2:15pm

Aww, poor fella. He hasn't yet completed his GED, so this figures. Will someone explain to the kid what hypothetical means? An elementary school teacher, perhaps?

#49

re: Tony Upsets

Posted: 5/18/07 at 2:19pm

You're right!

I have NO idea what hypothetical means!

Jerkoff. I'm saying that it's pointless to pull up numbers like that when you have NO clue as to what's reall going on.

"If you are going to do something, do it well. And leave something witchy." -Charlie Manson

#50

re: Tony Upsets

Posted: 5/18/07 at 2:25pm

Going off the true concept of an upset, which has already been described, the most obvious and gasp inducing would be if Audra, or Donna won and the upset which I think "could" happen is Orfeh over MLW. People who think it'll "never happen" are forgetting how much of a popularity contest these things are and Orfeh is hot right now. Ziemba and Luker have no shot and ZZZzzzzzziemba, I don't get, never have, never will. Another gigantic upset would be Poppins over SA.

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