I think the toughtest category overall is Best Musical, but toughest to be nominated will be Featured Actor in a Play
My predix for the nods for the top awards:
Best Musical
Spamalot
Dirty Rotten Scoundrels
The Light in the Piazza
The 25th Annual Putnam County Spelling Bee
All are locks, with only the remote possibility of “Little Women” taking the spot “Piazza”, but that is nearly unthinkable.
Best Play
Doubt
The Pillowman
Democracy
Gem of the Ocean
Doubt, Gem, and Pillowman are locks. Look for the possibility of Brooklyn Boy overtaking Democracy, although the latter had a nice run, and might be nodded to credit that.
Best Revival of a Play
Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?
Glengarry Glen Ross
Twelve Angry Men
On Golden Pond
The first three are locks, and “Pond” is my best guess. Streetcar or Steel Magnolias could steal the spot, but Pond is the safe bet.
Best Revival of a Musical
Sweet Charity
La Cage Aux Folles
Pacific Overtures
All are locks.
Best Actress in a Musical
Victoria Clark, The Light in the Piazza
Christina Applegate, Sweet Charity
Sherie Rene Scott, Dirty Rotten Scoundrels
Sutton Foster, Little Women
Erin Dilly, Chitty Chitty Bang Bang
All but Dilly are locks. Dilly could easily lose her spot to Jenn Gambatese, or who I would want to fill the spot, Kate Reinders.
Best Actor in a Musical
Norbert Leo Butz, Dirty Rotten Scoundrels
Tim Curry, Spamalot
Gary Beach, La Cage Aux Folles
Cheyenne Jackson, All Shook Up
David Hyde Pierce, Spamalot
Butz and Curry are locks, with Beach a fairly safe bet. Jackson and Pierce could be replaced by Lithgow, Azaria, or Daniel Davis (in that order).
Best Actor in a Play
Brían F. O’Byrne, Doubt
Billy Crudup, The Pillowman
James Earl Jones, On Golden Pond
Jeff Goldblum, The Pillowman
Adam Arkin, Brooklyn Boy
Again, first three are locks. Goldblum is safe. Arkin I threw in there due to his Drama Desk nod.
Best Actress in a Play
Cherry Jones, Doubt
Kathleen Turner, WAOVW
Laura Linney, Sight Unseen
Jessica Lange, The Glass Menagerie
Phylicia Rashad, Gem of the Ocean
Lange and Rashad have been left out of all of the races so far. Both should take the spots, but alternatives are Uggams and Mary Louise Parker.
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