Way too early 2016 Tony predictions- Page 17

[neonlightsxo]

Posted: 4/25/16 at 9:18am

Bart won't be nominated. I'm going with Tommy Kail, Rupert Goold, John Doyle & George C. Wolfe as my guesses. Scott Ellis being the wild card.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 4/25/16 at 9:22am

^How do you know? Considering the mixed reception surrounding American Psycho, I think Rupert Goold is more likely going to be nominated for Best Direction of a Play this year for King Charles III.

[neonlightsxo]

Posted: 4/25/16 at 9:25am

How do I know? Based on experience, following these awards for a long time, and having seen the shows. I think he's going to be nominated in both categories. But please argue with me if that makes you happy.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 4/25/16 at 9:26am

Even given the mixed reception surrounding American Psycho?

[neonlightsxo]

Posted: 4/25/16 at 9:27am

Yes. Diane Paulus could be nominated instead, but Bart Sher won't be nominated.

Frankly I'm not sure what "mixed reception" has to do with anything. Updated On: 4/25/16 at 09:27 AM

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 4/25/16 at 9:32am

The critical response for American Psycho hasn't been great, plus it's a hard show for some people to get on board with, so it's likely not even going to be nominated for Best Musical.

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 4/25/16 at 9:37am

I can't imagine Bart getting in but I also have a hard time seeing AMERICAN PSYCHO getting recognized in this category. Based on reviews (which only account for so much), I'd say Scott Ellis gets in.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 4/25/16 at 9:41am

There are now 5 slots in both directing categories. Given the acclaim around the current revival of Fiddler on the Roof, why do you think Bartlett Sher won't get a directing nomination?

[neonlightsxo]

Posted: 4/25/16 at 9:42am

I have a hard time seeing Scott Ellis being nominated for the same direction he did in 1993.

[BroadwayConcierge]

Posted: 4/25/16 at 9:42am

I actually think a Director nom for Sher is one of Fiddler's safest bets. His choices in that aspect were among the most spoken-about this season.

[neonlightsxo]

Posted: 4/25/16 at 11:49am

Spoken about, yes. But not positively.

My guesses for best musical noms: Hamilton, Waitress, Shuffle Along, American Psycho .

[Cupid Boy2]

Posted: 4/25/16 at 11:50am

neonlightsxo said: "I have a hard time seeing Scott Ellis being nominated for the same direction he did in 1993."

I think its entirely possible that the nominators will also think the direction is the same, but it's actually entirely different. Ellis is quoted in this interview as having said he only wanted to do the show under the condition that nothing would be repeated from the last revival.

http://www.npr.org/2016/03/15/470498978/pen-pal-passion-is-revived-in-broadways-she-loves-me

 

 

[Copperfield2]

Posted: 4/25/16 at 11:58am

I do think Scott Ellis has done new work for She Loves Me and it is better than his previous revival.

[Copperfield2]

Posted: 4/25/16 at 12:05pm

I know Scott Ellis is a powerful producer but I hope Shuffle Along does not get nominated for Best Musical. The second act alone should disqualify it.

Also Billy Porter? Nothing new about what he is doing in Shuffle Along.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 4/25/16 at 12:14pm

You mean Scott Rudin?

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 4/25/16 at 12:17pm

The committee will surely know that Ellis's direction is new and I suspect will recognize him with a nomination. I forgot the slate has been expanded to include five nominees. Curious to know who will make it.

Copperfield2, I think you meant to write Scott Rudin and not Scott Ellis? 

SHUFFLE ALONG is a wildcard here. I have heard such mixed things about it from a lot of people whose judgment I trust. It reminds me a bit of the buzz surrounding LOVEMUSIK though SHUFFLE ALONG has the advantage of being a hit and the people who vouch by it seem to think it's a genius piece. That kind of passionate support is what allows some divisive shows/performances to get in over shows that people respect and admire but not passionately.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 4/25/16 at 12:22pm

neonlightsxo said: "My guesses for best musical noms: Hamilton, Waitress, Shuffle Along, American Psycho."

I agree with all of your guesses except for American Psycho. I actually think School of Rock will take its place.

Updated On: 4/25/16 at 12:22 PM

[Johnnywhatwhat2]

Posted: 4/25/16 at 1:18pm

I agree with neonlightsxo but think School of Rock could take Shuffle Along's place. Hamilton is a lock. Waitress and American Psycho are pretty sure bets. 4th is a toss up. If there are 5 and Shuffle is in the Original category, then both School of Rock and Shuffle will be in. Bright Star is a dark horse candidate on 5th slot. 

Sorry Jeffrey K, it's clear you don't like Psycho but maybe you should remind us again.  

 

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 4/25/16 at 1:21pm

Shuffle Along is not a perfect show, but it deserves to be nominated for Best Musical. I would rather see a flawed show that aims high (and largely succeeds) be recognized over a show that manages to hit a lower goal. 

[neonlightsxo]

Posted: 4/25/16 at 1:22pm

^ Hear hear! I'm using that same philosophy for putting Psycho in my list of four.

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 4/25/16 at 1:25pm

I don't think AMERICAN PSYCHO is a sure bet at all. It can certainly get in but it's hardly a lock. I predict HAMILTON, SCHOOL OF ROCK, and WAITRESS, with SHUFFLE ALONG sneaking in over AMERICAN PSYCHO. 

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 4/25/16 at 1:34pm

Sorry Jeffrey K, it's clear you don't like Psycho but maybe you should remind us again.

I haven't even seen it. I think considering its underwhelming response, it probably will more likely not be nominated.

[neonlightsxo]

Posted: 4/25/16 at 1:38pm

I never said Psycho was a sure bet, just that it was my choice.

Jeffrey, I think you're over reading the "response." The nominators and voters aren't just critics. The actual response has been much better.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 4/25/16 at 1:39pm

But great minds do think alike.

Updated On: 4/25/16 at 01:39 PM

[Robbie2]

Posted: 4/26/16 at 6:22pm

My predictions for Musicals:

Best Musical:
Hamilton
Shuffle Along
Waitress
School of Rock

Best Revival:
The Color Purple
Fiddler On The Roof
She Loves Me

Best Score:
Hamilton
Bright Star
School of Rock
Waitress

Best Book:
Hamilton
Bright Star
Shuffle Along
Waitress

Best Director:
John Doyle-The Color Purple
Scott Ellis-She Loves Me
Thomas Kail-Hamilton
Bart Sher- Fiddler
George C Wolfe-Shuffle Along

 
Leading Actor Musical:
Alex Brightman-School of Rock
Danny Burstein-Fiddler On The Roof
Lin-Manuel Miranda-Hamilton
Leslie OdomJr.-Hamilton
Benjamin Walker-American Psycho

Leading Actress Musical:
Laura Benanti-She Loves Me
Carmen Cusack-Bright Star
Cynthia Erivo-The Color Purple 
Jessie Mueller-Waitress
Audra McDonald-Shuffle Along

I would love for Phillipa Soo-Hamilton to be be nominated but feel Carmen's performance bumped her out of the running.

Featured Actor:
Christopher Fitzgerald-Waitress
Daveed Diggs-Hamilton
Jonathon Groff-Hamilton
Christopher Jackson-Hamilton
Billy Porter-Shuffle Along or Brandon Victor Dixon-Shuffle Along


Featured Actress:
Danielle J Brooks-The Color Purple 
Jennifer Hudson-The Color Purple 
Renee Elise Goldsberry-Hamilton
Jane Krakowski-She Loves Me
Helene Yorke-American Psycho or Adrienne Warren-Shuffle Along


Best Choreography:
Andy Blankenbuehler-Hamilton
Savion Glover-Shuffle Along
Warren Carlyle-She Loves Me
Sergio Trujillo-On Your Feet
Randy Skinner-Dames at Sea

Best Scenic Design:
David Korins-Hamilton
David Rockwell-She Loves Me
Santo Loquasto-Shuffle Along
Es Devlin-American Psycho

Best Costume Design:
Ann Roth-Shuffle Along 
ESosa-On Your Feet
Jeff Mahshie-She Loves Me
Paul Tazewell, Hamilton

Best Lighting Design:
Howell Binkley- Hamilton
Jules Fisher/Peggy Eisenhauer-Shuffle Along
Donald Holder- She Loves Me
Jon Clark-American Psycho

Best Orchestrations:
Sara Bareilles-Waitress
Larry Hochman-She Loves Me
Alex Lacamoire- Hamilton
Daryl Walters-Shuffle Along

Updated On: 4/29/16 at 06:22 PM