I haven't seen some recent productions, but having just seen "Oslo" I think it's safe to assume it's the frontrunner for Best Play. Also, the buzz around Sweat has somehow weakened, I just don't know why. Anyway, here are my full predictions for the plays:
Best Play:
"A Doll's House, Part 2"
"Indecent"
*** "Oslo"
"Sweat"
"The Play That Goes Wrong"
To me, "Oslo", "Sweat" and "A Doll's House, Part 2" are safe choices. "Indecent" will be playing come Tony time so it should find some room with voters. I'm not sure where "The Play That Goes Wrong" could fit, but if we can't have those special awards this year, I think it's possible it's going to be recognized here (with JJ Abrams pulling the strings in the background).
Best Revival of a Play:
"Jitney"
"Present Laughter"
"Six Degrees of Separation"
*** "The Little Foxes"
"The Price"
I have no idea how this one is going to be like. I loved "Jitney" but it's closed, so will be "The Price" come Tony night. "Present Laughter" has been getting good reviews but I don't think it's strong enough to win, same with "Six Degrees of Separation". That leaves "The Little Foxes", a play I haven't seen yet, with the gimmick with the actresses and good word-of-mouth. Let's see...
Best Lead Actor in a Play:
Gideon Glick for "Significant Other"
Corey Hawkins for "Six Degrees of Separation"
Kevin Kline for "Present Laughter"
*** Jefferson Mays for "Oslo"
Mark Ruffalo for "The Price"
Weak category if you ask me. Glick is the best but he won't win, I don't even know if he will be nominated. To me it's a race between Kline and Mays, as I think "Oslo" is a better play, Mays will win his second Tony here.
Best Lead Actress in a Play:
Cate Blanchett for "The Present"
Jennifer Ehle for "Oslo"
Allison Janney for "Six Degrees of Separation"
Laura Linney for "The Little Foxes"
*** Laurie Metcalf for "A Doll's House, Part 2"
Cynthia Nixon for "The Little Foxes"
i just can't think of one of these six getting snubbed so I'll go with six, who cares. IF it comes down to five, unfortunately Blanchett will be the one left out. Really strong category, but after seeing Metcalf I just can't imagine anyone else with the award.
Best Featured Actor in a Play:
Michael Aronov for "Oslo"
*** Danny de Vito for "The Price"
Michael Potts for "Jitney"
John Douglas Thompson for "Jitney"
Richard Topol for "Indecent"
Strong category. I am personally rooting for the "Jitney" guys, but it's really hard to imagine how they could pull off a win at this point. De Vito seems the safest choice.
Best Featured Actress in a Play:
*** Johanna Day for "Sweat"
Jayne Houdyshell for "A Doll's House, Part 2"
Katrina Lenk for "Indecent"
Kristine Nielsen for "Present Laughter"
Michelle Wilson for "Sweat"
Have they released Sweat's eligibility? I hope Day goes as featured because I don't even think she'll be nominated if she goes as lead and she really deserves it. Houdyshell pulling a Judith Light and winning in the same category again is a possibility.
Best Director of a Play:
Mark Bell for "The Play That Goes Wrong"
Ruben Santiago-Hudson for "Jitney"
*** Bartlett Sher for "Oslo"
Daniel Sullivan for "The Little Foxes"
Kate Whoriskey for "Sweat"
Bell is a wishful-thinking, but then again, the play is well-liked and I'm just trying to figure out where it will be regonized, here it's also a good possibility. Sher will probably win again, and Santiago-Hudson can be nominated as a wave at August Wilson, but my real doubt is whether Kate Whoriskey or Rebecca Taichman (or both) will be nominated.
Best Scenic Design in a Play:
John Lee Beatty for "Sweat"
Douglas W. Schmidt for "The Front Page"
Mark Wendland for "Six Degrees of Separation"
*** Michael Yeargan for "Oslo"
"Oslo" again because why not. Douglas W. Schmidt should be a lock but the show is long gone.
Best Costume Design in a Play:
*** Jane Greenwood for "The Little Foxes"
Susan Hilferty for "Present Laughter"
Tom Scutt for "Les Liaisons Dangereuses"
David Zinn for "A Doll's House, Part 2"
YES, Greenwood has a really good shot at winning this year! And Dangereuses will be nominated again because there is no way this show is ever going to be left out of this category (unless Ivo van Hove comes up with a nude production).
Best Lighting Design in a Play:
Christopher Akerlind for "Indecent"
Paul Anderson for "The Encounter"
*** Donald Holder for "Oslo"
Justin Townsend for "The Little Foxes"
"Oslo" again, but I think "The Little Foxes" has a good shot at winning here, too.