Way too early 2017 Tony predictions — Page 21

Play That Goes Wrong very rightfully deserves a Scenic Tony. It's completely elaborate and pretty brilliant how close to the line of dangerous it plays without ever crossing it.

Although very difficut to make, these are my predictions for the musical category:

Best Musical:
*** "Dear Evan Hansen"
"Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812"
"Come From Away"
"Groundhog Day"
"War Paint"

Best Revival:
*** "Hello, Dolly!"
"Sunset Boulevard"
"Miss Saigon"
"Falsettos"

Best Lead Actor in a Musical:
Josh Groban for "Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812"
Jon Jon Briones for "Miss Saigon"
Andy Karl for "Groundhog Day"
*** Ben Platt for "Dear Evan Hansen"
Bobby Conte Thornton for "A Bronx Tale"

Will they spread Bronx love here, too? Thornton is young, good-looking (well...) and is not giving a bad performance so who knows.

Best Lead Actress in a Musical:
Christy Altomare for "Anastasia"
Christine Ebersole for "War Paint"
Patti LuPone for "War Paint"
*** Bette Midler for "Hello, Dolly!"
Eva Noblezada for "Miss Saigon"

Head-scratching category with too many options. I'm gonna stick with Altomare due to the Disney factor, and unfortunately not predicting Benton right now, but this category can change for me in the following minutes.

Best Featured Actor in a Musical:
Lucas Steele for "Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812"
Will Roland for "Dear Evan Hansen"
Fred Johanson for "Sunset Boulevard"
*** Gavin Creel for "Hello, Dolly!"
Corbin Bleu for "Holiday Inn"

Creel vs Steele will be fun to watch because either one of them could win. Bleu could find some love for being an ex-Disney actor in a revelatory performance. The other guys are there because their musicals could push some extra categories here, just like that kid from Billy Elliot.

Best Featured Actress in a Musical:
Brittain Ashford for "Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812"
Stephanie J. Block for "Falsettos"
Jenn Colella for "Come From Away"
*** Rachel Bay Jones for "Dear Evan Hansen"
Q. Smith for "Come From Away"

Bay Jones has this one in the bag, unless Colella starts going to places and making the campaign game. I'm going to stick with Ashford over Amber Gray after the video clip of Sonya Alone (wtf was that anyways) and I'm also relying on Block for all that Falsettos love during Winter. Q. Smith is my "how the hell did she end up nominated" name of the year and I don't expect other people to have the same opinion.

Best Director of a Musical:
Christopher Ashley for "Come From Away"
*** Rachel Chavkin for "Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812"
Michael Greif for "Dear Evan Hansen"
Matthew Warchus for "Groundhog Day"
Jerry Zaks for "Hello, Dolly!"

Interesting category, and one to look out for come Tony night. I swapped Christopher Ashley and Lonny Price last minute, so I wouldn't be shocked to see some Sunset love here, too.

Best Book of a Musical:
Steven Levenson for "Dear Evan Hansen"
Terrence McNally for "Anastasia"
*** Irene Sankoff & David Hein for "Come From Away"
Doug Wright for "War Paint"

I really hope Come From Away takes the Tony for Best Book because it might be the only one. Also, I didn't include Malloy here because come on, what are the odds of being nominated three times in a single night?

Best Original Score:
Dave Malloy for "Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812"
Tim Minchin for "Groundhog Day"
*** Benj Pasek & Justin Paul for "Dear Evan Hansen"
Irene Sankoff & David Hein for "Come From Away"

No competition for Pasek & Paul here and honestly I would be shocked if these 4 were not the final line-up.

Best Choreography:
Andy Blankenbuehler for "Bandstand"
*** Warren Carlyle for "Hello, Dolly!"
Peter Darling for "Groundhog Day"
Sam Pinkleton for "Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812"
Sergio Trujillo for "A Bronx Tale"

Having seen Dolly last week I believe it's the front-runner for the choreography category. Holiday Inn can pop up here but who remembers this show? Anastasia, too, but I predict some extra love for A Bronx Tale and this category would be a given in this case.

Best Orchestrations:
August Eriksmoen for "Come From Away"
*** Dave Malloy for "Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812"
Larry Hochman for "Hello, Dolly!"
Alex Lacamoire for "Dear Evan Hansen"
David Pullen & Andrew Lloyd Webber for "Sunset Boulevard"

I'm predicting five nominees and yes, this is a mistake, but I just don't know which one I should rule out.

Best Scenic Design in a Musical:
Totie Driver & Matt Kinley for "Miss Saigon"
Rob Howell for "Groundhog Day"
David Korins for "Dear Evan Hansen"
*** Mimi Lien for "Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812"

No competition for Great Comet here, I'm just not sure if Korins will be nominated for Hansen or War Paint... He may be nominated for both, but I don't think Saigon's inventive staging even compared to the original production will be forgotten.

Best Costume Design in a Musical:
Tracy Christensen & Anthony Powell for "Sunset Boulevard"
Santo Loguasto for "Hello, Dolly!"
*** Paloma Young for "Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812"
Catherine Zuber for "War Paint"

If these are the nominees I really hope they can find a way to award all of them. It's a ridiculously strong category and all the four are much stronger than all of last year's nominees.

Best Lighting Design in a Musical:
Howell Binkley for "Come From Away"
Mark Henderson for "Sunset Boulevard"
Natasha Katz for "Hello, Dolly!"
*** Japhy Weideman for "Dear Evan Hansen"

Really strong category, but safe pick to win.

"I'm gonna stick with Altomare due to the Disney factor"

'Anastasia' isn't Disney...

I think Korins deserves a nomination for War Paint, not DEH, which doesn't really even have a set. The lightning is the scenery.

I feel like Anastasia will definitely get a costumes nomination.

We have to wait for the reviews! They might hate Groundhog Day and Anastasia and maybe War Paint or Bronx Tale will get in.

Updated On: 4/15/17 at 04:27 PM

Warchus won't win a Tony this year. And it wouldn't be his first. He won several years ago for Norman Conquestes?

I too enjoyed Saigon more than Sunset but I wonder if all the controversy surrounding Saigon will cause it to be snubbed.

I liked Sunset a lot and hated Saigon. Like most everything, it's just a matter of taste.

neonlightsxo said: "I liked Sunset a lot and hated Saigon. Like most everything, it's just a matter of taste.

"

Second this

And it seemed that Sunset got better reviews than Saigon did in a lot of areas. The fact that they really paired down the production (which despite the original raves for in 1994, the critics were love/hate over because they argued it was more British-mega musical excess) but didn't skimp on the production (41 piece orchestra definitely has gotten major raves across the board, even with those who might not be fans of ALW's music)

Compare that to Saigon which was designed to tour post-Broadway - I think will give Sunset an edge over Saigon in terms of nominations.


None of which will matter since it seems that Hello Dolly will sweep

JudyDenmark said: "It's entirely possible that I missed it in this giant thread... but why have I not seen Beanie Feldstein's name pop up for Featured Actress? I just came from Dolly tonight and thought she was absolutely perfect and hilarious as Minnie Fay. I know it's a crowded category, but I could see both her and Kate Baldwin getting nominated, especially on the strength of the show. (Actually, much as I loved Kate Baldwin in this, I'd arguably give the edge to Beanie.)

I would personally love to see it be Kate Baldwin, Stephanie J. Block, Jenn Colella, Beanie Feldstein, and Rachel Bay Jones. But I'm guessing at least one of the Great Comet girls will sneak in, so who knows.




Featured Actress Musical

Stephanie J. Block - Falsettos

Jenn Colella - Come From Away

Amber Grey - Great Comet

Rachel Bay Jones - Dear Evan Hansen

Laura Dreyfuss - Dear Evan Hansen

Henry, I'd also add director in there. I think the only award they could very well win is book. Everything else has stronger competition, but I'd say it's between Dear Evan Hansen and Come From Away for book, with DEH having the edge.