The only possible correct answer is that there is no answer, but we can dig a bit deeper to get a sense of why there is no answer.
For the most part, the key is confluence and that can take on many variations-a show that arrives at a uniquely good time (either in the cosmos or just on Broadway), a show that brings together multiple talents at the top of their game or just a show with producers that are tapped into audience zeitgeist and adroit marketing, etc etc. (All of these can of course work in the reverse.)
It is always a roll of the dice, and statistically the results are consistent with the odds of winning at craps.