Which musical(s) do you think will be nominated for Best Musical for The Tony Awards this season?

I think the Best Musical nominees for The Tony Awards will be:

Dear Evan Hansen

Anastasia

Bandstand

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory

Natasha, Pierre and the Great Comet of 1812

(NOTE: My thoughts on which musical(s) will be nominated for Best Musical might change.)

what about Come from Away?

As of now, Dear Evan Hansen and Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812 are both locks for nominations.

As for possibilities for the other 2-3 slots...

Anastasia
Come From Away
Groundhog Day

First, there is no guarantee that there will be five nominees. I posted the actual rule about this a couple of weeks ago. In short, unless the show that is in fifth place is within three votes of the fourth place show, there will only be four in spite of there being 13 eligible shows:

I believe that Dear Evan Hansen and Great Comet are locks, and from everything I've heard and read, I'm willing to bet that Come From Away will definitely be nominated. After that, it's anyone's guess out of several that could possibly contend, none of which have opened as yet.

Updated On: 1/12/17 at 11:00 PM

We really didn't need another thread about this, but I'm thinking:

Dear Evan Hansen (Winner)

The Great Comet

Come From Away

Groundhog Day

War Paint or Anastasia (if there are five nominations)

I really don't expect to see Amelie or A Bronx Tale (both incredibly ordinary musicals) land a nomination. Charlie would have to have serious revisions made to land a nomination, in my opinion, and frankly, I haven't heard all that much about Bandstand and I kind of forgot that it existed.

If you know there shouldn't be another thread for this and the correct thread is linked above, why are you replying to this thread? Let this one die.

Call_me_jorge said: "If you know there shouldn't be another thread for this and the correct thread is linked above, why are you replying to this thread? Let this one die.



"

Says the person who creates a new thread every two seconds.

icecreambenjamin said: "Call_me_jorge said: "If you know there shouldn't be another thread for this and the correct thread is linked above, why are you replying to this thread? Let this one die.



"

Says the person who creates a new thread every two seconds.





"

At least those topics didn't already have a dedicated thread.

Updated On: 1/13/17 at 12:11 AM

It would help, in order to have any intellectual foundation whatsoever, if you had actually SEEN the shows you "think" will be nominated. By definition, that is obviously not possible and will not be for quite a while.

ROM, That would be true if SOMEONE had seen each of the shows being discussed, but at this point NO ONE has. It is a very crowded field, and nuance will likely dictate who gets a few more nods than the next show down the ladder. There are always highly anticipated shows that turn out to be duds. In this case they don't actually have to be duds, because only 2-3 shows from the remaining crop are going to secure nominations. I stand by my "foundation" statement.

I'm curious — has anyone has seen both Dear Evan Hansen, and Come From Away (regional runs count)? And if so, which of those two properties seems more likely for award nominations and wins, to you?

Bonus points if you happen to have seen and can compare Groundhog Day in London, Great Comet in any of its runs, or any of the other top contenders.

I concede, of course, that Broadway productions can differ dramatically in quality from shows' prior productions and can either improve, or deflate when changes are made, they move to a larger house, and the idiosyncrasies of a New York City audience are added into the mix.