Posted: 7/26/17 at 9:50am
If you had to rank these shows from most likely to close to least likely. I'd probably go...
1) Book of Mormon 2) Phantom of the Opera 3) Wicked 4) Hamilton 5) Lion King
Posted: 7/26/17 at 9:57am
It is way too early to tell for any of these, really. But if I were to guess, I'd probably say -
1) Book of Mormon
2) Wicked
3) Hamilton
4) Phantom of the Opera
5) Lion King
But who knows? Maybe the Wicked and Lion King movies will hurt/bump up their business even more.
Posted: 7/26/17 at 9:59am
Without bothering to rank; realistically speaking:
Never, Never, Never, Never, and... so on.
Posted: 7/26/17 at 11:54am
1) Book of Mormon
2) Phantom of the Opera
3) Hamilton (I can see it getting dated REALLY fast, though I am sure people said the same for Phantom)
4) Wicked
5) The Lion King
Posted: 7/27/17 at 4:32pm
Why would Hamilton get dated fast? Because of its use of "rap" music? Imagine if these shows are still playing in 100 years? Talk about a return on investment!
Posted: 7/27/17 at 4:47pm
POTO marks 30 years in January - I can't believe it has lasted this long. Tourists are still going to see this?
Posted: 7/27/17 at 5:00pm
Looking back at grosses, there are weeks in the past year in which "Phantom" has played to near capacity and grossed over a million. Spring break, holidays, etc, this show just keeps chugging along. They've been very smart doing a show on Monday nights and Thursday matinees--not much competition for those times.
Posted: 7/27/17 at 5:02pm
The dated nonsense with Hamilton is just that. It's a 200 year old story with music in the style of rap from 20-30 years ago. If it isn't dated now, it wont be anytime soon. The only thing that could date is its political themes of immigration and so on but looking at the current administration it seems that for now it remains wholly relevant.
Posted: 7/27/17 at 5:06pm
mtcond said: "Looking back at grosses, there are weeks in the past year in which "Phantom" has played to near capacity and grossed over a million. Spring break, holidays, etc, this show just keeps chugging along. They've been very smart doing a show on Monday nights and Thursday matinees--not much competition for those times."
TRUE. Smart strategic scheduling has helped it survive - as you've said 'not much competition'. There have been plenty of Monday nights where I've been in NYC looking for a show while I was visiting a few days, and this was the best option out of the choices. But after seeing it about five times in the past 25 years, I've decided 'enough'.
Posted: 7/27/17 at 5:58pm
David10086 said: "POTO marks 30 years in January - I can't believe it has lasted this long. Tourists are still going to see this?
"
It's more of a landmark at this point that they want to cross off their bucket list. "I went to the Empire State Building, I took a carriage ride in Central Park, and I saw the phantom of the opera!"
Posted: 7/27/17 at 7:53pm
MadonnaMusical said: "David10086 said: "POTO marks 30 years in January - I can't believe it has lasted this long. Tourists are still going to see this?
"
It's more of a landmark at this point that they want to cross off their bucket list. "I went to the Empire State Building, I took a carriage ride in Central Park, and I saw the phantom of the opera!"
"
Precisely this. No matter what one may think of the show itself, it's achieved an unofficial landmark status, and Wicked I daresay is pretty damn close behind if it isn't one already...but of course it's unofficial 
Now as for the list, I had to pick at threat of gunpoint, I'd say Book of Mormon. POTO and Wicked aren't going anywhere (heaven forbid...(let's be honest, theater would suffer here without them), Hamilton, in terms of overall political thematics will always be relevant thought its immigration bent miiiiiggghhttt not last as long, but only slightly, so it'll be here for a while. Lion King, while almost like Wicked and POTO in terms of landmark status, it's a well done, well known, Disney musical. Disney titles tend to remain a while, with the couple of exceptions that we already know of.
Updated On: 7/27/17 at 07:53 PM
Posted: 7/28/17 at 8:49am
David10086 said: "POTO marks 30 years in January - I can't believe it has lasted this long. Tourists are still going to see this?"
I'm in NY an average of 3-6 times per year (in fact, I'll be back up in August for the seventh time since January), specifically to go to the theatre. I don't particularly consider myself a "tourist" and I see this show every single time I'm there.
Updated On: 7/28/17 at 08:49 AM
Posted: 7/28/17 at 9:13am
Book of Mormon, no contest. It's a funny show; a good night at the theatre, but it's nothing really beyond that. It'll probably close in a year or two. Wicked and POTO are going nowhere. They're the tourist trap shows, and while I'd say POTO is pretty dated, they'll stick around. Hamilton might get dated one day as well, but for a good while it'll be relevant. It's still making major money as well. Lion King is Disney, so obviously it'll be there. I'd give it like five more years.
Posted: 7/28/17 at 9:21am
Book of Mormon still sells out pretty much every night without having to discount at all. There's no way it will close in the next two years. I think it has a good 5-10 years ahead of it.
Posted: 7/28/17 at 9:38am
Plus Book Of Mormon is a way better show than that pile of crap that is Wicked
Posted: 7/28/17 at 9:54am
Itonlytakesajourney said: "Book of Mormon, no contest. It's a funny show; a good night at the theatre, but it's nothing really beyond that. It'll probably close in a year or two.
"
Disagree. Book of Mormon has a brilliant score that hooks people after one listen.
Posted: 7/28/17 at 10:05am
rosscoe(au) said: "Plus Book Of Mormon is a way better show than that pile of crap that is Wicked "
LOL. That "pile of crap" is in its 14th year and still grosses over $1.9million with an attendance of over 97%. With its planned film release in 2019, this show will keep filling in the seats.
Posted: 7/28/17 at 11:04am
Big Apple2 said: "LOL. That "pile of crap" is in its 14th year and still grosses over $1.9million with an attendance of over 97%. With its planned film release in 2019, this show will keep filling in the seats."
No one said it wasn't doing well financially, only that it is a pile of crap.
Posted: 7/28/17 at 11:07am
While we are on the subject of long-running shows... when will Chicago reach for the gun?
I have a feeling once Chicago closes, they'll move the production to the city of Chicago for tourists.
Posted: 7/28/17 at 12:11pm
The equity tour of Chicago already visits Chicago every few years and it only for a week at a time. No way it could move there permanently. Or maybe you were just joking?
I don't consider any trip to New York City complete without seeing Phantom.
Posted: 7/28/17 at 12:19pm
asimplegal2 said: "Itonlytakesajourney said: "Book of Mormon, no contest. It's a funny show; a good night at the theatre, but it's nothing really beyond that. It'll probably close in a year or two.
"
Disagree. Book of Mormon has a brilliant score that hooks people after one listen.
I love the show, don't get me wrong. It's just that it's nowhere near the "icon"-like status of POTO, Wicked, Hamilton, etc. people think of when they hear Broadway. I could see it closing in like 2020 or a little later if they really want to stretch it out.
Posted: 7/28/17 at 12:25pm
Obviously I can't speak for all the tourists that visit the city, but being an Airbnb host I met a fair share of them... and I would have to disagree with the statement that POTO is almost a landmark now...
It varies depending from where they are from and age, but the vast majority after I ask if they are interested in seeing a Broadway show respond with Book of Mormon or Hamilton... in fact, most of the time when I say that Phantom has a lottery, I usually hear something along the lines of "no, thanks"...
Again, I can only speak for the tourists that I have hosted, but I can count in one hand the number of guests that went to see Phantom... same for Hamilton, but for different reasons! Lol
Posted: 7/28/17 at 1:25pm
Curious as to what a fair share of 60 million tourists is?
Posted: 7/28/17 at 1:34pm
Don't think any will be soon but...
1) Book of Mormon
2) Phantom of the Opera
3) Hamilton
4) The Lion King
5) Wicked
I would put Chicago at #2 on this list if it was included
Posted: 7/28/17 at 1:41pm
I just can't imagine Phantom not being on Broadway. It's just always been there lol.
