Hairspray/Wicked Hype

[millie_dillmount]

Posted: 8/24/04 at 6:07pm

Has the hype lessened for this show? The capacity of the theater was 81.8% last week, which isn't bad at all, but shows like Aida and Chicago had higer capacities. (Chicago's theater is smaller, but the theater that hosts Aida is larger).

Seeing this happen to a once "every performance sold out" show, how long do you think it is going to be before it happens to Wicked, and their capacity slips into the 80s?

[Derek2]

Posted: 8/24/04 at 6:15pm

Wicked will probably drop below 90 in about a year my guess...below 80 maybe in a year and a half. I think it will run probably 5 or 6 years...2 years before it makes it to the TKTS booth I think...but who knows it could become a big show/tourist attraction like Phantom or Les Miz and run for many years.

although Avenue Q won the Tony I have a feeling it wont run as long as Wicked. I do like Avenue Q, its just its not as popular as The Wizard of Oz...everyone in the world knows the story of Oz. Also Wicked is a much BIGGER production. They won most of the design awards at the Tonys so...yeah, but I like Avenue Q. I think these 2 will be the longest runners of the season Updated On: 8/24/04 at 06:15 PM

Posted: 8/24/04 at 6:49pm

i disagree, there has been no change in attendance between when kristin, norbert, and joel left, to when the new leads came in. a lot of tourists don't know about the show or the leads and buy tickets, no matter what the cast. but maybe after idina leaves that will change.......

[timote316]

Posted: 8/24/04 at 6:50pm

The Producers did lose steam, but it seems to have picked it back up, what with the return of Nathan and Matthew, and Hunter in there now.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 8/24/04 at 6:58pm

2 more years for Wicked? What are you somokin'?!

[Derek2]

Posted: 8/24/04 at 7:09pm

u dont think it will run that long???

Posted: 8/24/04 at 7:13pm

she thinks it'll run longer! look at her name! and i agree!

[Derek2]

Posted: 8/24/04 at 7:30pm

o lol. Yeah me too. I said 5-6 years...however the Producers has already been running for 3 1/2 years so it might run longer than that

[My Fair Lady]

Posted: 8/24/04 at 8:00pm

I think Wicked will have a fairly long run, but not like Les Mis. It's a big production, but I give it 6 years tops. And Avenue Q, I don't think that will run too long. It's too attached to this time period. In 10 years people won't really get some of the jokes anymore. But I still love the show.

[Rathnait62]

Posted: 8/24/04 at 8:02pm

Just remember that WICKED has a VERY high breakeven. It's not going to run long once it dips down toward 80%.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 8/24/04 at 9:33pm

They can always move to another theater.

I think Wicked will have a very, very long run (and I wouldve said that even if I wasnt a Wicked fan). Its a commercial smash and people want to see more family oriented shows. And also, people dont know the story of Wicked like they do with Lion King and Beauty and the Beast, so now more and more people are checking it out. I give Wicked 8-10 more years at the least but thats just me.

Hairspray gets about the same amount for me.

Avenue Q will probably run for about 4-5 more years. I agree with Fair Lady's Ave Q statement.

[little_sally]

Posted: 8/24/04 at 9:58pm

I think "Wicked" will lose some of its hype once Idina Menzel leaves. People I know didn't even want to see her stand-by, and she was gone for two weeks. Unless producers replace her with somebody to really attract audiences, I think attendence for that show will take a dip.

As for "Hairspray"...I just think it's a fun (and great) show and it can last forever as far as I'm concerned.

[GretchaSketch]

Posted: 8/24/04 at 10:07pm

I agree. I think that once all of the OBC is gone it may die down a little. But I say give it a few years. Did Rent go down in numbers after the obc was gone or even now? But that show was HUGE.

[Emutional]

Posted: 8/24/04 at 10:08pm

Aida is probably high since it's closing (or is it already done? i get closing dates mixed up).

I think Wicked will run pretty long. Depending on whether avenue q moves or not, i don't know how long it'll run. i don't think they would do as well in vegas as they would if they stayed in new york...just because it's so much easier to take a trip to new york than to vegas, especially as a minor (and despite what most people think, minors LOVE avenue Q).

Since wicked grosses over 1,000,000 per week, how long do you think it'll be till it breaks even?

[millie_dillmount]

Posted: 8/24/04 at 10:10pm

Aida closes September 5th.

[Emutional]

Posted: 8/24/04 at 10:10pm

thanks :)

[GretchaSketch]

Posted: 8/24/04 at 10:13pm

How much does the show cost to put on???

Posted: 8/24/04 at 10:27pm

it cost $14 million

[marlomanners]

Posted: 8/24/04 at 11:31pm

Kristin's leaving Wicked had no effect on the grosses, and most tourists don't even know who Idina is so I don't think her leaving will affect the show either. Most people are coming for the subject matter and the fact that it's a family-friendly show. It will be around for a long time.

[insomniak]

Posted: 8/24/04 at 11:35pm

"I agree. I think that once all of the OBC is gone it may die down a little. But I say give it a few years. Did Rent go down in numbers after the obc was gone or even now? But that show was HUGE. "

Wicked is very expensive, it needs to run at top capacity to pay for itself. Rent is cheap for a musical, that's why it's going on nine year hovering in the 65-75% range.

[NightLaughs]

Posted: 8/24/04 at 11:40pm

I agree, you ask the average tourist about the OBC of Wicked and they will respond with "Idina who?" Sad, true, whatever. A show like the Producers, while it's a great show, much emphasis is put on Nathan And Matthew. Wicked is a famiy-oriented show, that will not change as cast members leave. I see it enjoying a long run, I'm talking Beauty and the Beast run.

[Derek2]

Posted: 8/25/04 at 12:04am

I dont think Idina's leaving will have any effect on the show. The show is based on the Oz story. The Wizard of Oz (due to the movie and the novel) is very popular. Everyone wants to see that show. The producers are great for this show as well. They picked JLT after Kristen. I couldnt have asked for 2 better Glinda's! They are great at casting replacements it seems. I think they'll pick an excellent Elphaba (unlike the producers of Wonderful Town...Brooke Shields??...what about Bebe Neuwirth people?) anyway, yeah

[Emutional]

Posted: 8/25/04 at 12:09am

I always thought it to be the other way around. Wicked.

"What's wicked?"
"Its a show about the wicked witch of the west, and the girl who played maureen is the wicked witch."
"oh."
"she won the tony and she sings the most liked number."
"wow. who's the good one?"
"kristin chenoweth."
"...who?"
"a cute bubble-y blonde."

that's how most conversations went for me when i discussed it with non-broadway fans. Cuz even if they don't like broadway, a ton of them have heard of RENT.

i think it'll do well for a while, i wonder who the next wizard and fiyero will be.

[millie_dillmount]

Posted: 8/25/04 at 12:10am

Bebe Neuwirth as Ruth? Yeah, she has that type of voice, could work.