Did Broadway Produce any Long Runners This Year?

[esparza 333]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 2:16pm

Every Year there is at least one show that survives a few seasons after its own season

For Example
The Producers
Mamma Mia
Hairspray and Moving Out
Wicked and Avenue q
Spamalot
Jersey Boys
Spring Awakening

What Show do you think will survive a few seasons?

[philly03]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 2:21pm

The Little Mermaid will probably.
And South Pacific, should it ever transfer.

[JudasIscariot]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 2:21pm

In The Heights.

[DrewBill]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 2:44pm

No, I don't think any of this past season's shows have the potential to be "long runners" (5+ years on Broadway) like "Mamma Mia!," "Hairspray," or "Wicked."

I think the one that will last the longest will be "The Little Mermaid," but I don't see it running past 2-3 years max, probably less -- much like "Tarzan," it just doesn't have a lot of buzz around it to keep it going long term.

"In The Heights" will probably have a similar run, approx. 2-3 years max.

BTW, I don't yet count "Spring Awakening" as a long runner -- it's only been on Broadway for 2 seasons now. It remains to be seen how long this show will last. And I guess by my definition above, "Jersey Boys" hasn't yet hit the long run category either.

[wicked_beast4]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 2:46pm

But the way Jersey Boys has been selling for it's entire run, it's almost definite that it will meet your standards for a long runner.

[B3TA07]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 3:03pm

In The Heights will have a modestly healthy run, but nothing like Les Mis or the "mega hit" runs. That's the only show I see sustaining a run after maybe two years.

[DrewBill]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 3:09pm

wicked_beast4: Yes, I agree with you -- while "Jersey Boys" hasn't yet hit the 5 year mark, it's consistently doing very well, and is definitely on track to reach that milestone.

[winston89]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 3:25pm

I do want to say Mary Poppins and The Little Mermaid. Poppins because it already recouped and considering that it is one of the best out of three shows that love to and do make tourists happy ( I am talking about the Disney on Broadway shows of course) Disney isn't loosing any money by keeping it open at this point. And, I can see it having a good healthy run. At least, until the point Disney creates a new musical that needs a big theatre like the New Amsterdam.

And, I want to say Mermaid. Not because it is good. We all know that it really isn't. But, because of the fact that tourists will take their kids to see it because it is a reliable name. Everyone knows the name The Little Mermaid. The people that take their kids to the Disney shows are people who don't go to the theatre often enough to be able to judge what is good quality theatre and what isn't. Disney can produce crap so long as it is a name that has been a will be a household name for years and years to come. Disney half learned that lesson with Tarzan. They can produce crap but the reason why no one came is because Tarzan is nowhere near as much of a household name like something like Beauty and the Beast or Mary Poppins or The Little Mermaid is.

[adamgreer]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 3:29pm

The Little Mermaid.

Not sure why people keep predicting its demise. It's never brought in less than $832,000, nor played to below 77% capacity. It's making Disney a boatload of money every week, and their target audience seems to love it. At this point in its run, Tarzan was doing nowhere near the business Mermaid was.

It'll easily run 5 years.
Updated On: 6/28/08 at 03:29 PM

[CurtainPullDowner]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 4:06pm

A "boatload" of money is a cute pun, but not neccesarily true.
We don't know what the running cost is.
It could be above $600,000.

[winston89]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 4:13pm

And yet most of the people on here who are crossing their fingers for its demise are people who don't really look at the numbers and look at the fact (and it is a fact) that the show is poorly done.

[oohshizz146]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 4:38pm

The Little Mermaid will always have an audience...its Disney! And it's very cute for kids

And I bet In The Heights will be around for a while.

[jimmy_oh_jimmy]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 4:54pm

I pray to god not lil mermaid

[myshikobit]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 4:57pm

NO. At best Little Mermaid will run the longest. Not five years, though.

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 5:06pm

Definitely THE LITTLE MERMAID.

IN THE HEIGHTS has potential, but think we just have to wait and see.

[philly03]

Posted: 6/28/08 at 5:15pm

The Little Mermaid is definately going to run about 5 years or more. It's always going to be if not remembered for the show itself a show that people question..."How can they make it look underwater?" "What do the sets look like?" "I wonder how much it's like the movie?" or the "I Grew up with that movie I'm going to show my kids!" "My kids love Disney!" It's just one of those shows...unlike Tarzan which was a newer film, and had just about the worse stage effects ever.

I may be an outcast with this, but I don't really see In the Heights running "forever" or all-too-long at all. There are plenty of people who complain when Lin-Manuel Miranda is out about his understudy, well what's going to happen when he leaves? I also HATE to say this, and I feel awful saying it, but with shows that tend to pick a certain race for casting (Latinos are primarily casted for this show, Miss Saigon and Asians) sometimes after long runs the shows become a little sloppy because they have trouble finding the right "look" for these people. I doubt that it'll be a problem if the show doesn't run 10 years, unless they keep primarily the same cast. And unfortunately, once the buzz leaves this show when next season's shows come in, I think it will rely on it's fan-basis a lot, which could keep it open for over 5 years...but I myself am predicting 2-4 for this show.