Compiled Oscar Nominations Prediction

[ucjrdude902]

Posted: 12/20/11 at 12:38am

I found a list of all the major critics compiled together in a nicely done layout with their Academy Award predictions and now I can't find it. Anyone know what I'm talking about or know where I could find it?

[CapnHook]

Posted: 12/20/11 at 4:20am

"The Gold Derby"

[tazber]

Posted: 12/20/11 at 8:26am

The Derby is the best and most complete rankings of hopefuls, but the EW scorecard is pretty well laid out.
Link

[henrikegerman]

Posted: 12/20/11 at 12:04pm

I'm going in:

THE ARTIST*
THE DESCENDANTS
DRIVE
THE HELP
HUGO
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
MONEYBALL
THE TREE OF LIFE
WAR HORSE

(I predict nine nominees with the new system; not so dark horses: GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO, THE IDES OF MARCH; dark horse: A SEPARATION)

HAZANAVICIUS*
MALICK
SCORSESE
PAYNE
REFN(dark horse but I'm going out on a limb)

(not so dark horses: Allen, Fincher, Spielberg)

CLOSE
DAVIS*
STREEP
SWINTON
WILLIAMS

(pretty sure about these five (not at all sure about Davis for the win), but Theron, Dunst, Mara, and Olsen outside possibilities)

CLOONEY
DUJARDIN
FASSBENDER
OLDMAN
PITT*

(not so dark horses: Bichir, DiCaprio, Shannon; Gosling (not sure for which))

PLUMMER*
BRANAGH
BROOKS
NOLTE
OSWALT

(not so dark horses: Hammer, Von Sydow; darker horses: Pitt, Hoffman)

BEJO
CHASTAIN
MCCARTHY*
SPENCER
WOODLEY

(not so dark horse: McTeer (her not getting nominated might prove the nomination day heartbreaker but its a very competitive race - given that Bejo is in the wrong category), Mulligan; dark horses: Bullock, Redgrave (Coriolanus); note: Redgrave's performance in Anonymous was fantastic but has bizarrely gotten no buzz whatsoever)

THE ARTIST*
BEGINNERS
BRIDESMAIDS
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
THE TREE OF LIFE

(not so dark horses: Young Adult, A Separation)

THE DESCENDANTS*
THE HELP
THE IDES OF MARCH
MONEYBALL
WAR HORSE

(not so dark horses: Drive, Hugo, Tinker...)







Updated On: 12/21/11 at 12:04 PM

[dreaming]

Posted: 12/20/11 at 4:49pm

I think Glenn Close has a really strong chance at the Oscar-she's a beloved, respected veteran who's never won and she's getting very strong reviews for playing a man (and the distinction is that she's not being a woman being a man, but that she's also immersed herself into the role so much that she's believable as a man). I think Midnight in Paris could snag best screenplay (although I think it'll be neck-in-neck with The Artist, which I LOVED). I do think Midnight in Paris will get some nods-it was very well-received and the screenplay is very, very clever. (That and The Artist are my two favorites.)

[Roscoe]

Posted: 12/20/11 at 8:02pm

The idea of Brad Pitt actually winning an Oscar for Best Actor makes me physically ill.

Or would if I gave a damn about these awards things, they don't mean anything, and all that.

But damn. "Oscar-winning Best Actor Brad Pitt." I threw up in mouth a little just typing it.

[AC126748]

Posted: 12/21/11 at 6:33am

Roscoe doth protest too much about how little he cares.

[trentsketch]

Posted: 12/21/11 at 9:10am

Nathaniel over at The Film Experience always has a great display. He gives you the awards/nominations the film has picked up, previous Oscar nominations, and a detailed write-up of all the likely candidates. http://thefilmexperience.net/prediction-index/

[Roscoe]

Posted: 12/21/11 at 10:19am

"Roscoe doth protest too much about how little he cares."

Well duh. That's part of the joke -- bitching about the awards while acknowledging that they really mean nothing.

[henrikegerman]

Posted: 12/21/11 at 6:35pm

Dreaming, I can certainly see Glenn Close getting the oscar for many reasons and I was delighted to read the raves for her and McTeer in the Times. I can also easily see it going to Streep. It's a refreshingly suspenseful race.

Still, there's something about Davis's performance that I can't shake. I doubt I ever will. In particular the final scenes of the film.

"You a godless woman. Ain't you tired MIss Hllly? Ain't you tired?'

Strong stuff. My gut tells me AMPAS would find it difficult not to recognize Viola Davis with an oscar for this performance.

[tazber]

Posted: 12/21/11 at 9:08pm

I agree henrik.

It would be wonderful to see Close win after her string of 5 nominations. But I think (and this is based on buzz as I haven't seen Iron Lady) it's essentially a 2 horse race between Streep and Davis.

[StageManager2]

Posted: 12/21/11 at 11:06pm

I beg to differ, taz. I think it's a 3-way race. Michelle Williams is very much in it. She and Meryl have won their fair share of critics awards, while Viola has garnered one or two. I predict that Williams will easily win her category at the Golden Globes, while it's a toss-up between Davis and Streep for Drama, but I give the edge to Streep because the GGs love star power and Streep (they've nominated her 25 times and awarded her 7), and Davis isn't really a star. But the real pre-Oscar showdown will be at the SAGs when all 3 will be in the same category.


Still, each lady has their own advantages:

Michelle Williams -- She has the Marilyn factor, which I'm sure the Academy will find irresistible. Marilyn's name is often at the top of the list of movie stars who were never nominated for an Oscar. In fact, Entertainment Weekly made such a list last year and placed Marilyn at #1. A win for Williams could mean a posthumous honor for Marilyn. Plus, it's a difficult role to portray convincingly without coming off as a drag queen impersonator. Furthermore, last year, Williams was praised highly for her performance in BLUE VALENTINE and some people felt she deserved to win, so on top of Williams giving another great performance this year and the Marilyn factor, the Academy may want to make it up to her, too.

Meryl Streep -- she's once again playing a larger than life true character, and she hasn't won since 1983, so people may feel she is long overdue for a second Best Actress Oscar. This could be a lifetime achievement award. I think in Streep's case, it could also come down to how her movie performs. Last year, THE KING'S SPEECH seemed to be lagging behind until it started doing great business, ultimately earning $414 million worldwide on a $15 million production budget. If IRON LADY performs as well, without a doubt it will influence many a voter.

Viola Davis -- THE HELP was a box office hit and appears to be the only movie of these women that will be nominated for Best Picture, which greatly improved Sandra Bullock's chances two years ago when THE BLIND SIDE became a smash hit and got a Best Picture nomination. Also, like THE BLIND SIDE, the subject matter could be a plus, too. The Academy loves that stuff -- IN THE HEAT OF THE NIGHT, GUESS WHO'S COMING TO DINNER, and more recently DRIVING MISS DAISY and CRASH.


Now, for the bottom two:

Glenn Close -- sad to say that Close doesn't pose a threat at this point. Her movie has been getting mixed reviews (so far, a 47% rating out of 32 reviews at Rotten Tomatoes), and Janet McTeer seems to have stolen her thunder. Also, she hasn't won any critics awards and has been left out of some, namely Independent Spirit (for which McTeer got a nomination) and Critics Choice. Her campaign seemed to be losing steam early this month but was given a boost with a Golden Globe and SAG nominations. If her movie gets a Best Song nomination, this could very well be Close's consolation prize.

Tilda Swinton -- She is definitely the 5th slot. Though her campaign has gained momentum recently (thanks to a SAG, GG, and CC nods and two wins), I don't feel she's in serious contention to win. Besides, she already won 4 years ago.

As for Kirsten Dunst, Rooney Mara, Charlize Theron, Elizabeth Olsen, they're no longer in the race. I strongly believe the 5 above will be the nominees, with Williams, Streep, and Davis neck-and-neck in the home stretch.

[strummergirl]

Posted: 12/21/11 at 11:51pm

Maybe I am reading the wrong critics but nobody seemed to be THAT in love with Michelle Williams as Marilyn to have her warrant an automatic spot. Yeah, mimicry of a screen legend is Oscar bait on a plate but compare it to Streep's performance that has critics saying she disappeared into the role of Thatcher whereas the stuff on Williams has been ranging from good to adequate to barely scratching the surface. Maybe it is just because while I have resigned to the fact Dunst (who I have always liked for reasons I cannot put my finger on) will not get nominated that I cannot handle the idea of Tilda not getting nominated too. There has to be at least one depressing performance of a leading actress nominated, dammit!

As for Davis, she may not be a star but she is the female equivalent of a Richard Jenkins or a Chris Cooper as an immediately recognizable, though not so much by their name, character actor. Sometimes those types of actors get rewarded by the Academy.

[henrikegerman]

Posted: 12/22/11 at 12:46am

I just wanted to add that Williams was brilliant and btw she has won several critics awards. I didn't mean to imply that I was ruling her out completely for the oscar (although I'm more inclined to put her, as opposed to Close, with Swinton in the bottom two in terms of likelihood of winning).

Strummergirl, have you seen My
Week With Marilyn yet? I wouldn't call what Williams does mere mimicry. It's another in a string of strikingly beautiful performances by one of the finest young actresses working in the movies today.

[StageManager2]

Posted: 12/22/11 at 1:26am

For Strummergirl:

ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY:
"Michelle Williams plays Monroe, and she's a wonder. Working opposite a suitably florid Kenneth Branagh as that high thespian Sir Larry, a platinum, sultry Williams knows exactly how to throw the switch that turns on MM's movie-star incandescence, then flick it off to reveal the vulnerable young woman in the dark.... The film itself -- a drama about Marilyn Monroe's 1956 sojourn in Britain -- may be slight, but Williams is a revelation. She moves effortlessly between Monroe's private fragility and bombshell public personal, and all but guarantees herself nod."

ROGER EBERT:
"The success of 'My Week With Marilyn' centers on the success of Michelle Williams in embodying the role. With the blond hair, the red lipstick and the camera angles, she looks something like Monroe, although she's more petite. What she has is the quality that was most appealing: She makes you want to hug her, not have sex with her... The movie seems to be a fairly accurate re-creation of the making of a film at Pinewood Studios at that time. It hardly matters. What happens during the famous week hardly matters. What matters is the performance by Michelle Williams. She evokes so many Marilyns, public and private, real and make-believe. We didn't know Monroe, but we believe she must have been something like his. We're probably looking at one of this year's Oscar nominees."

LEONARD MALTIN:
"For the conceit to work, we first have to buy into the idea of Michelle Williams as Marilyn. She and the filmmakers pull this off by opening their movie with a musical number. As Williams sings and dances to “Heat Wave,” we see the familiar Marilyn figure and body language and hear her whispery singing voice. Director Simon Curtis saves his first closeup till the end of the song, when we’re already on the hook, and that seals the deal. If we can believe Williams as the famous sex symbol, we can begin to accept her as the real woman off-camera. What she achieves isn’t mimicry but an absorption of the character that is both persuasive and appealing. It’s easy to see how she manipulated the people around her, whether deliberately or not, and how a wide-eyed young man like Clark (played with just the right touch of naïveté by Eddie Redmayne) would become smitten with her... Michelle Williams deserves all the accolades she’s been receiving, because without her there’s no movie. She convinces us that she is that ravishing, impossible, heartbreaking figure we’ve all read so much about... and makes us wish we could have spent a week with her as Colin Clark did."

NPR:
"But the film rests firmly on the shoulders of its central icon, and Williams, though she doesn't really resemble Monroe in either voice or visage, is pretty splendid at conjuring her. It's not an impersonation, exactly; for much of the picture, she seems more mousy Norma Jean Mortenson than sexy starlet. But when Williams turns on her inner Marilyn — surrounded by, say, the staff of a stately home she's visiting on the sly — she's a superstar, with a smile that could light up the surrounding county."


NEW YORK POST:
"Brilliantly playing doomed ’50s sex bomb Marilyn Monroe, Michelle Williams gets under the skin of the troubled yet vulnerable icon in a way no one else ever has. Her extraordinary performance in 'My Week With Marilyn' makes all of the many performers who have played Monroe previously seem like cheap imitators — and lends gravitas to a lightweight romantic fantasy that dubiously claims to be based on fact. In a tour de force, Williams subtly deploys her voice and body to effectively play three parts. In addition to a Marilyn who publicly flirts with reporters and young male fans, there’s the insecure diva who wreaks havoc on an English movie set in 1956 — enraging her haughty director and co-star, acting legend Sir Laurence Olivier (a hilarious Kenneth Branagh). Williams also toggles into the co-title role in the famously troubled movie they’re making, the period romantic farce 'The Prince and the Showgirl' (herein referred to by its working title, 'The Sleeping Prince')... 'My Week With Marilyn' seems destined for a much happier fate — very possibly including Williams going home with an Oscar for playing an actress who was never even nominated."

SALON.COM:
"Most of the chatter around 'My Week With Marilyn' will inevitably concern Michelle Williams’ magnetic Oscar-bait performance as the off-screen Monroe, and my only two words on that subject are yes and yes. (Yes, she’s wonderful and yes, she’ll probably win, although I’m still pulling for Ellen Barkin or Kirsten Dunst.)... I’m a huge admirer of Michelle Williams, but I’m used to seeing her play indie-film characters who sleep in their cars or brave the Oregon Trail. In the abstract I wouldn’t have assumed she had either the physicality or the luminosity to pull off Marilyn Monroe. But from her thoroughly delectable opening number, her performance is relaxed, natural and utterly captivating, capturing Monroe’s precise blend of innocence and eroticism. You could say that the character Williams develops is rootless and uncentered, but one suspects that was true of Marilyn in real life, vacillating between the public sex-symbol persona that threatened to swallow her and the uncertain girl from a messed-up family who was plagued by anxieties and the threat of mental illness."

USA TODAY:
"She may not be a dead ringer for Marilyn Monroe/Norma Jean Baker, but Williams embodies the legendary sex symbol in 'My Week With Marilyn.' Disappearing into the role of the troubled actress, Williams captures the star's breathy voice and distinctive mannerisms while delving a few notches deeper. Ever a chameleon, Williams conveys Monroe's vulnerability and peels back the sexpot image to reveal a woman who is alternately wistful, childlike, funny, needy and wise... Williams is bound to get an Oscar nomination, along with Kenneth Branagh, who plays Laurence Olivier."

ROLLING STONE:
"The luminous Michelle Williams goes bone-deep here. Monroe's beauty was one of a kind. No one, not even Williams, can act it. What Williams does, with fierce artistry and feeling, is illuminate Monroe's insights and insecurities about herself at the height of her fame. Her scenes with a superb Kenneth Branagh, his wit martini-dry as the thin-lipped, defensive Olivier, ignite. Less potent is Monroe's flirtation with Colin (Eddie Redmayne, solid nonetheless). It took a toll on Monroe to look effortlessly buoyant on camera. Williams lets us see why. It's a great, soulful performance. Sit back and behold."

She's also been nominated/won the following awards:

WON
- Boston Society of Film Critics Award for Best Actress
- Chicago Film Critics Association Award for Best Actress
- Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association Award for Best Actress
- Detroit Film Critics Society Award for Best Actress
- Florida Film Critics Circle Award for Best Actress
- Hollywood Film Festival Award for Best Actress (also for - Meek's Cutoff and Take This Waltz)
- Las Vegas Film Critics Society Award for Best Actress
- Palm Springs International Film Festival – Desert Palm Achievement Actress Award
- Washington D.C. Area Film Critics Association Award for Best Actress
- Toronto Film Critics Association Award for Best Actress
- Utah Film Critics Association Award for Best Actress

NOMINATED:
- Houston Film Critics Award for Best Actress
- New York Film Critics Circle Award for Best Actress (runner-up)
- San Diego Film Critics Society Awards for Best Actress
- Satellite Award for Best Actress in a Motion Picture Drama
- St. Louis Gateway Film Critics Association Award for Best Actress (runner-up)

PENDING:
- Broadcast Film Critics Association Award for Best Actress
- Golden Globe Award for Best Actress – Motion Picture Musical or Comedy
- Independent Spirit Award for Best Female Lead
- London Film Critics Circle Award for Actress of the Year
- Phoenix Film Critics Society Award for Best Actress
- Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

[Auggie27]

Posted: 12/24/11 at 7:19pm

I fear Swinton could miss out, though I heard SAG members got screeners (WGA members, and I'm one, didn't get KEVIN, curiously, which might've produced a best adaptation nom.)

Swinton and Davis were the performances that stuck to my brain. I'm seeing MARILYN tomorrow, and if I feel strongly about Williams, I will weigh in!

[trentsketch]

Posted: 12/25/11 at 9:30am

strummergirl, Williams has been a lock since the film first screened. It's not just her performance: it's the category of performance and the genre of film. She's doing mimicry in a behind-the-scenes/Hollywood unveiled circle-jerk of a picture that will hit the voters just right. I think I know the critics you're reading because there's a loud minority that is doing everything they can to convince people Michelle Williams isn't that good in the film. The same thing is happening in other circles with Streep and Davis, the other locks in the category. I understand why. There are some amazing performances this year in films that won't hit with the Oscars. That doesn't mean the people winning the awards are doing bad work by any stretch of the imagination.

Swinton's challenge is the screening situation. Are people going to pop the screeners into the DVD players for a film like that? The description is depressing. That's been Tilda's problem for years. I don't see how anyone can see Julia or I Am Love and not think this woman deserved the Oscar. However, those films are so off-putting on paper but so right when you watch them. Momentum seems to be on her side this time.

Dunst and Olsen are out, a shame on both counts. The Carnage ladies are campaigning supporting and won't get in. The only wild cards are Swinton, Theron, Close, and Mara for that last spot. Theron is fading because Young Adult did not do well at the Box Office. Close's film is splitting critics and her co-star (McTeer) is drawing focus. Mara has to compete with the still fresh memory of Noomi Rapace's performance in the same role and the super-violent subject matter. Close has the best chance because the Academy has a history of nominating actresses who get pet projects made and made well.

[henrikegerman]

Posted: 12/25/11 at 11:48am

I think Dunst might would have a much better chance had Von Trier not been such an asshole at Cannes, Mara a much better chance if, as you've said, Rapace hadn't just triumphed in the role, and each of these, as well as Olsen and Theron, have a much better chance if the race weren't particularly competitive one with the five more likely contenders, all of them deserving.

But I'd be surprised if ultimately those five will be any different than the SAG roster: Close, Davis, Streep, Swinton and Williams.

[strummergirl]

Posted: 12/25/11 at 1:18pm

"strummergirl, Williams has been a lock since the film first screened. It's not just her performance: it's the category of performance and the genre of film. She's doing mimicry in a behind-the-scenes/Hollywood unveiled circle-jerk of a picture that will hit the voters just right. I think I know the critics you're reading because there's a loud minority that is doing everything they can to convince people Michelle Williams isn't that good in the film."

Yep, you nailed my thoughts on it. I've strayed from the critical praise of a performance since Reese Witherspoon won an Oscar and somehow overshadowed the performance Joaquin Phoenix with critics in Walk the Line.

And at this rate Streep could do a film reading a phone book in a bathtub and get nominated.

[Bettyboy72]

Posted: 12/26/11 at 12:49am

Meryl Streep will be so pleased if Davis wins. Streep LOVES her.

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 12/26/11 at 12:54am

After seeing YOUNG ADULT today, I firmly believe Theron will take one of those 5 spots.

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 12/26/11 at 2:25am

Jordan, I have yet to see MY WEEK WITH MARILYN (which looks great and Michelle Williams looks amazing in it) or THE IRON LADY. But I saw YOUNG ADULT for the second time today and don't understand how Charlize Theron isn't getting singled out for awards left and right. Her performance in that movie is simply incredible in every way. No, it isn't a heart-wrenching drama which people usually equate with "better acting." It's an unforgiving and extremely complex portrayal of a fascinating trainwreck of a woman. Her big scene at the end is just...wow! I do hope she makes it to the top 5 but I imagine stuff like WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN and ALBERT NOBBS will have more traction.

[americanboy99]

Posted: 12/26/11 at 11:06am

I agree about Theron in YOUNG ADULT. Definitely my favorite leading actress performance of the year. I found Williams perfectly suitable in a poorly written role.

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 12/26/11 at 11:16am

I love that Theron takes on roles like this and even more so that she is OFFERED these types of roles. A lot of women in Hollywood who are as beautiful as she is are so afraid of thing like this. And even with an Oscar to her name, I still feel like she isn't taken seriously as an actress most of the time, which I'd such a shame.

[Kad]

Posted: 12/26/11 at 11:54am

Theron really is very talented, but I agree that a lot of people just think of her as a pretty face. She picks daring roles that really buck against expectation- even her role in Arrested Development.

I saw My Week With Marilyn yesterday. Michelle Williams and Kenneth Brannagh are both wonderful, but the film is merely decent. It's hindered by a script in which characters reveal their deepest fears at the drop of a hat without provocation. And, despite Eddie Redmayne's infinite cuteness, his character is pretty boring- as those roles often are in these "Me & A Famous Person" films.