Entertainment Weekly predicts BABEL Best Picture win.

[Michael Bennett]

Posted: 1/29/07 at 12:27am

Entertainment Weekly has the "Who Will Win" predictions online. EW's predicting crew, which includes Robert Osborne and Dave Karger (best forecaster in the biz) among others, has it shaking down like this:

Best Picture: Babel (Karger is the lone predictor on Departed)
Actor: Forest Whitaker, save one vote
Actress: Helen Mirren
Supporting Actor: All over the map but it looks like Eddie Murphy leads with three. Karger predicts Alan Arkin to win.
Supporting Actress: Do we need to say her name?! Jennifer Hudson, save one vote
Director: Martin Scorsese (do we need to say HIS name?!)
Original Screenplay: The Queen (2 votes for LMS)
Adapted: Departed has 4, Little Children has 2, Children of Men has 3

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 1/29/07 at 12:40am

I will be pleased with a BABEL win.

But if Alan Arkin wins...I will be livid.

[Michael Bennett]

Posted: 1/29/07 at 12:44am

Well, whats funny is that I've spoken to a few people out here in LA who are "positive" that Arkin will indeed win. We have to remember that the AMPAS does their own thing. And the real Oscar race just began this week: in some ways the winners of the SAG were largely determined two weeks ago when most ballots were returned - when, of course, DREAMGIRLS was still a major frontrunner in the race...

The buzz on the Oscars changes almost daily - you can practically feel it. The ballots are mailed out January 31st and most are returned within a week.

So whatever films have the buzz next week will probably have an advantage.

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 1/29/07 at 12:52am

And due to the big two awards that DREAMGIRLS picked up tonight, how would that do anything but to pick up the buzz again?

Sure, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE's buzz is getting stronger - but it would be a real pity if Arkin won for a performance that, quite frankly, doesn't even deserve a nomination.

[best12bars]

Posted: 1/29/07 at 12:57am

Arkin's performance is fine, but too small. He has no real "wow" moments in it that could push him into the winners circle.

And when I say "too small," I'm not talking about screen time, I'm talking about impact.

And LMS will NOT win Best Pic. It's got so many implausibilities running rampant in it, I can't see them choosing it.

Babel will likely be the winner.

And to that I say...

...whatever.

*yawn*

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 1/29/07 at 12:57am

Well, what would YOU choose?

[best12bars]

Posted: 1/29/07 at 1:03am

Well, since Dreamgirls, Pan's Labyrinth and Children of Men aren't nominated, I'll say Babel, among the rabble.

This is a weak year.

But Dreamgirls should have been the winner.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 1/29/07 at 1:06am

I think Babel will win, too. The Golden Globes and the Oscar noms put that into perspective.

[broadway86]

Posted: 1/29/07 at 1:33am

but it would be a real pity if Arkin won for a performance that, quite frankly, doesn't even deserve a nomination.

Maybe to you. I thought him and Breslin stole the show, and deserved their nominations.

[Anakela]

Posted: 1/29/07 at 1:36am

well then in that case I hope EW is wrong...

[Plum]

Posted: 1/29/07 at 1:38am

Oh blah. Babel is such boring, pretentious pap. I'll take Pan's Labyrinth or Volver or Children of Men over it, easily. Which, of course, guarantees that it'll win. :P (Heck, I'll even take the flawed but lovely Dreamgirls over that piece of "intersecting storylines make us sophisticated" pablum.)

[Michael Bennett]

Posted: 1/29/07 at 2:18am

Plum, that's all very well - take those films over BABEL, but shouldn't you at least pick one film over BABEL that is at least nominated for Best Picture?

[best12bars]

Posted: 1/29/07 at 2:33am

Why should Plum do that?

Why shouldn't she just throw the whole damn thing in the proverbial trash and hope for better judgment on the part of the Academy and better films on the part of film makers next year?

How about "none of the above?"

Updated On: 1/29/07 at 02:33 AM

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 1/29/07 at 2:39am

Since I've been reading various writers compare Babel to Crash, especially in predicting the Oscars, I'd like to comment on why I think I did love Crash and didn't love Babel. In Crash (like Magnolia and Altman films before it), the characters and storylines intersected and weaved together to form a mosaic. In Babel, I did not reach that same feeling. That may be an unfair expectation to place on the film, but since I first saw the previews, I wanted to know how the Japanese girl was connected to Mexico and to the incident, etc. The fact that a prop connected them, didn't cut it for me. Perhaps, it's that all of these things things happened to these people by such a simple chain reaction of events. I guess I could buy that. But, still, I wasn't thrilled by Babel as a whole. Loved the performances. Loved all the filmic elements (design, etc.)

Updated On: 1/29/07 at 02:39 AM

[SueleenGay]

Posted: 1/29/07 at 2:47am

Except for perhaps Best Picture, this will be the most predictable Oscars in recent memory.

I still can't believe that the actual best picture of the year didn't even get nominated! I mean how do you score all those other nominations and not get a Best Picture or Best Director nod?


Of course I am referring to Pan's Labyrinth.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 1/29/07 at 2:48am

From everything I've heard, PL IS the best film of the year. I'll find out tomorrow evening.

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 1/29/07 at 3:06am

After having seen the five nominees, I believe Dreamgirls deserved the Best Picture award; however, out of the five candidates The Departed seemed to be the best fit. I felt that Babel, just as Crash, ultimately fell back into what it was trying to criticize...but that's for another thread. Babel is probably going to win, Dreamgirls deserved it.
I do have a question though. I was under the impression that for the acting awards the voters were allowed to vote for someone who was not on the ballot, am I right? And if I am, is this only for the acting awards or for every category?

Updated On: 1/29/07 at 03:06 AM

[VIETgrlTerifa]

Posted: 1/29/07 at 3:07am

As pretentious and over the top with its message as Babel was, I found it a lot more enjoyable than Crash and I think it is worthy of a Best Pic nod, though I think that just shows how weak this year is than anything else. 21 Grams, by the same director, was a much better film that handled the chain-of-reaction and intersecting character aspect more creatively and more interestingly. IMO, Babel is an inferior and a more accessible version of 21 Grams.

Pan's Labyrinth is one movie that I need to revisit. I thought it was beautiful and greatly enjoyed the way the story was told and how the perspectives changed as the she got introduced to new elements. That said, I'm still not sure how affected I am with it. I think my expectations were just way too high when I saw it.

[Ciaron McCarthy]

Posted: 1/29/07 at 8:05am

Well, since Dreamgirls, Pan's Labyrinth and Children of Men aren't nominated, I'll say Babel, among the rabble.

This is a weak year.

But Dreamgirls should have been the winner.

You really think "Dreamgirls" was a better movie than Iwo Jima, Pans Labyrinth, Volver and Children of Men??

[best12bars]

Posted: 1/29/07 at 8:28am

Didn't I just say that?


EDIT: And ray---no write-ins are allowed on the Oscar ballots. If you write in any name anywhere, your entire ballot is automatically disqualified.

TRIVIA: Only one write-in candidate has ever won an Oscar, and that was back in 1935 - Hal Mohr for Best Cinematography for "A Midsummer Night's Dream." The rule was changed the year after that to disallow any write-ins.

Updated On: 1/29/07 at 08:28 AM

[touchmeinthemorning]

Posted: 1/29/07 at 10:21am

jerby, Yeah, i do think that putting that expectation on Babel is too much. The film is called Babel as an allusion to the biblical story. People do not intersect in our world. That is one of the big thesis points of the film -- we know one another by our goods more than by our hearts -- even though we all have these moments where we bleed and hurt and rejoice and celebrate.

It really is a wonderful epic film, and I can't see any other film winning (save Iwo Jima, if it picks up some buzz in the next week).

[robbiej]

Posted: 1/29/07 at 10:31am

Were I a voter and DREAMGIRLS was nominated, I would have voted for that in a heartbeat...flaws and all.

I quite enjoyed Babel...actually...really enjoyed Babel. Having not seen IWO JIMA, I'd give it to Babel over the others. I agree with you, touch, that the intent of Babel was different from the intent of Crash. The a-little-too-on-the-mark symbolism of both titles expresses their differences.

Threadjack #1: I saw Dave Karger do an interview for a segment on Logo. Is that geek-chic cutie out?

Threadjack #2: I'm always happy to see Plum posting!

[Michael Bennett]

Posted: 1/29/07 at 10:40am

I think I'm probably the only one, but I didn't love PAN - I was, of course, blown away by some of the creativity of specific scenes (the eye ball monster) but a lot of ideas in the film felt under-developed to me.

I just saw VOLVER yesterday and thought it was fabulous. I would easily have voted it Best Foreign Film - if it were nominated.

[JohnPopa]

Posted: 1/29/07 at 10:56am

My problems with 'Babel' are simlar to my problems with '21 Grams' -- both movies felt to me like a director working way too hard to pull off a complicated structure. The stories don't fall together so much as they feel rammed together through directorial force. I think his stuff is decent but also think I'd enjoy his work more if he'd learn how to pull himself off the screen a bit and let the writing do more of the work.

[Michael Bennett]

Posted: 1/29/07 at 11:03am

I echo Touch's thoughts: and I think people that are finding the storyline of BABEL "forced" together - are doing the jamming themselves: trying to make the stories connect. As touch says, the title is an illusion to a biblical reference specifically citing how cultures ARE disconnected. The idea in the bible is that God purportedly split a universal language into mutually incomprehensible families. I don't believe the stories are meant to "interweave"

I thought BABEL was actually a much more powerful, more expertly crafted film on my second viewing. I wasn't sold on it the first time around - but I'm now a big fan of it.
Updated On: 1/29/07 at 11:03 AM