OSCAR Predictions 2015

Film: BIRDMAN
Director: Inarritu for BIRDMAN
Actor: Keaton for BIRDMAN
Actress: Moore for STILL ALICE
S. Actor: Simmons for WHIPLASH
S. Actress: Arquette for BOYHOOD
Orig. Screenplay: GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Adapted Screenplay: AMERICAN SNIPER
Animated Feature: BIG HERO 6
Foreign Feature: IDA
Documentary Feature: CITIZENFOUR
Cinematography: BIRDMAN
Film Editing: BOYHOOD
Prod. Design: GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Cost. Design: GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Score: GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Song: Glory from SELMA
Visual Effects: DAWN OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
Makeup: GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Sound Mixing: WHIPLASH
Sound Editing: BIRDMAN

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I predict everyone here to bitch about Lady Gaga's performance. And that NPH won't be able to top his 2013 Tony opening (won't have the Broadway talent to back him).

^ The director and picture have split the last two years so that's possible. But I'm afraid the trick of making it look like one continuous shot will trump shooting it over twelve years and that Birdman will take both picture and director. Boyhood will have to settle for editing and, of course, Arquette. American Sniper is likely to walk away with sound effects only and with sound mixing going to Whiplash (another unusual split). If folks really get their hump up about Whiplash being in the wrong category, it could carry the adapted screenplay, leaving The Imitation Game empty handed.

^ Agreed. I think Boyhood is overall a greater achievement.

I found that in almost all the films I saw this year, the acting was stronger than the film itself. However, I thought Whiplash had both. I would love it to win best film but it won't. JK Simmons has been cleaning up (won the Independent Film award besides the GG's and the SAG's) which I'm happy about, but I thought Miles Teller has been ignored. He probably won't win tonight.

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I said Miles Teller won't win.

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Got it. He wouldn't win because he isn't nominated. Still, his performance was great.

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Jane, I too wish that Whiplash would win. I read an article (in variety or Deadline I believe) that said that with the preferential voting system in place for Best Picture, that a surprise win could happen in that category with Whiplash or Theory of Everything taking the prize. 'll try and find the article, but it basically said that with so many oscar votes being split between Birdman and Boyhood (with some American Sniper, Grand Budapest, and Imitation Game voters mixed in, plus Selma voters who believe that it was unfairly ignored) that the vote could be split with Whiplash or 'Theory' taking the majority of 2nd and 3rd place votes that either one could come out victorious. I know its a long shot, but the article also mentioned that when talking with voters, the ONE film consistently named among voters, being Whiplash. I don't expect it to win, but I would be so happy if it did!

I'm usually so confident with my predictions but this year (aside from a few categories) I can see the voting going a number of ways- which will make this the most exciting oscar ceremony in a long time. Usually by the end of the night, it will be apparent who will take home the big prize for Best Picture- but I think it will be a nail biter up until the envelope is opened.

My Predictions (which might change before tonight as I keep changing some) are:

Film: BOYHOOD
Director: LINKLATER
Actor: EDDIE REDMAYNE
Actress: JULIANNE MOORE
Supporting Actor: JK SIMMONS
Supporting Actress: PATRICIA ARQUETTE
Original Screenplay: GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Adapted Screenplay: IMITATION GAME
Animated Feature: BIG HERO 6
Foreign Feature: IDA
Documentary Feature: CITIZENFOUR
Cinematography: BIRDMAN
Film Editing: WHIPLASH
Production Design: GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Costume Design: GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Score: THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING
Song: GLORY
Visual Effects: INTERSTELLAR
Makeup: FOXCATCHER
Sound Mixing: WHIPLASH
Sound Editing: AMERICAN SNIPER

"I know it won't happen. But I would love for Budapest to pull a upset."

That makes two of us.

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My predictions pretty much line up with henrik's. But the bigger question is, how long will it take for someone to post that this is the worst Oscars ceremony ever and/or NPH is the worst Oscar host ever? Because we all know every year is the worst Oscar/ceremony/host ever.

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I would hope for a BIRDMAN and BOYHOOD split, since I'm in the BOYHOOD camp, firmly and passionately. But I fear it's almost impossible. The industry is just cool on BOYHOOD, in no small part because the movie was anointed by film critics. It could end up only with Arquette and editing, as several posters say. Likely.

But if BOYHOOD is shut out of the two major categories, I believe it will only enhance its profile. In an odd way, the current backlash might finally cease. It's a film that will probably prove its merit and artistry in the decades ahead, and anthropologically it certainly represents a particular American story (only one, but still) at a particular point in time. Whether BIRDMAN -- the tale of a middle act actor dissed by Hollywood, set against a farcical construct of the NY theater -- is regarded in the same light other than technically or for its uniformly solid performances, is another matter. It says basically that it's damned hard to age in the entertainment industry. It's clever, it's full of wizardry. If its art and cultural resonance is timeless, we'll find out. I'm not calling it a CRASH. But I'm certainly not prepared to call it the best film of this year.

If losing the Oscar adds to BOYHOOD's quiet, humble origins mystique, so be it.

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Updated On: 2/22/15 at 01:27 PM

As long as Patricia Arquette wins, all is well with the world.

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As long as Patricia Arquette wins, all is well with the world.

As much as I disliked the film, I would have to agree with you there. Arquette may not be traditional Hollywood "glam", but she is by FAR one of the best actresses in the industry.

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