The 2007 Oscar Predictions Thread - HOW WELL DID U PREDICT? Scores inside!- Page 2

[mabel]

Posted: 11/9/06 at 2:40pm

Dre, it comes out around Thanksgiving in limited release, and I'd be shocked if it's nominated for anything at all, to be honest (as much as I'd love them to pick up a SAG nomination for Ensemble).

The screenplay is very choppy, imho, and considering it didn't even get a nomination for Best Picture at the British Independent Film Awards, I'd say it doesn't look good. They only got nominations for de la Tour and Barnett/Cooper for Breakthrough Performance...Bennett may have gotten a nomination, but I'm not sure. Whatever it was, they didn't get Best Picture, Director, and Griffiths wasn't nominated. I don't think this bodes particularly well for them (if they can't even pick up those nominations in an awards show that should have been right up their alley).

I think it's really going to tank, actually...though I am looking forward to seeing it, and I'll definitely be looking forward to the DVD (hopefully some decent bonus features...the full tour documentary that's featured on the film's site perhaps?!?! *fingers crossed*)

Updated On: 11/9/06 at 02:40 PM

[CapnHook]

Posted: 11/9/06 at 2:45pm

I have only seen the movie trailer for VOLVER and it didn't look like it is hyped up to be. However, the Oscar buzz is STRONG on this one...so much so that it's hard to ignore. We'll see...I think it will be easily overshadowed by other films...

As for LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE, I expect a Screenplay nod most definitely. I don't think it'll get any acting nods, but Writing and possibly Directing (the later the long shot). It's been my favorite film of the year so far.

[NCGuy]

Posted: 11/9/06 at 2:49pm

I'm hoping for Gretchen Mol to be nominated. With a campaign and some critics awards, it could happen.

Broadway86, she was wonderful. I’d love to see her get some recognition at the end of the year, too.

[Fiction Writer]

Posted: 11/9/06 at 2:49pm

I still want to see Marriage.
I love Rachel McAdams.

I think she'll fit the 40s housewife perfectly.

[mabel]

Posted: 11/9/06 at 2:56pm

I wouldn't be terribly shocked if LMS picked up a supporting nod or two. I could definitely see Arkin being nominated (or possibly Carell, though I think that would be a long shot). And if they end up making a big push at crunch time, I could almost see Breslin getting a Supporting nomination. I'd imagine a lot of that would depend on where they place Streep and Benning. If they both go Supporting, I'd say that would pretty much wipe out Breslin's chances, but if they go Lead, I could see her slipping in there.

Updated On: 11/9/06 at 02:56 PM

[Kitzarina]

Posted: 11/9/06 at 2:59pm

I also wouldn't count out Mr. Wilson for Little Children. His reviews have been just as strong as Kate Winslet's

[Mister Matt]

Posted: 11/9/06 at 3:07pm

And edging in at the last minute will be Renee Zellweger in Miss Potter. Noonan's first directorial project since Babe.

[Bettyboy72]

Posted: 11/9/06 at 3:09pm

If there is a god in heaven and thinkfilms has any budget for promotion, I pray to Jesus that Sook-Yin Lee and Paul Dawson from Shortbus get some Oscar, Golden Globe or SAG nods. Those are the best performances of 2006 in my book. Stunning and fearless. Sook-Yin is yards above Mirren in my book.

[cheezedoodle]

Posted: 11/9/06 at 3:11pm

Shortbus is another ISA shoe in. Not mainstream enough for Oscar sad to say. I spoke to Mitchell last June about this and he said that getting a distributer was hell.

Updated On: 11/9/06 at 03:11 PM

[Bettyboy72]

Posted: 11/9/06 at 3:13pm

Doodle, sorry to sound ignorant, but what is ISA?

[mabel]

Posted: 11/9/06 at 3:15pm

ISA=Independent Spirit Awards

[cheezedoodle]

Posted: 11/9/06 at 3:15pm

Independant Spirit Awards. They usually take place the day before the Oscars, and are basically the "oscars" for small budget/independant films and their creators.

[Bettyboy72]

Posted: 11/9/06 at 3:19pm

Thanks Doodle and Mabel! :)GOOOO Shortbus

[cheezedoodle]

Posted: 11/10/06 at 3:23pm

Anyone know anything about Marcia Gay Harden in The Dead Girl or Jim Carrey in The Number 23? They each look like very intense roles.

[CapnHook]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 4:18pm

In order, here are the films one should see for Oscar Tracking:

- Dreamgirls
- The Departed
- The Queen
- Babel
- Little Miss Sunshine
- Volver
- Bobby
- Flags of Our Fathers
- The Good German
- Notes on a Scandal
- The Pursuit of Happyness
- World Trade Center
- The Last King of Scotland
- Half Nelson
- Venus
- Little Children
- The Good Shepherd
- Hollywoodland
- The Devil Wears Prada
- For Your Consideration
- United 93
- The History Boys
- Borat
- Blood Diamond
- Miss Potter
- Infamous
- Stranger Than Fiction

Those are the ones for Film/Directing/Acting/Writing.

[Plum]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 4:30pm

Anyone think Jennifer Hudson could actually provide Mirren with some competition in the Best Actress category?

(I guess The Fountain is going to fall under either the "underappreciated" or "overrated" category, which is a shame. It could get technical awards, though.)

[NCGuy]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 4:38pm

Capn, does Bobby actually have any Oscar buzz at this point? The reviews have been pretty mediocre.

[CapnHook]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 5:07pm

Bobby is liked. Maybe not by critics, but it is liked.

[Type_A_Tiff]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 5:19pm

"Marriage" just wrapped principal photography last month (I've heard the title will be changed since "Marriage" was already the name of an old movie) so I don't think it will be released in time for 2007 consideration. I've read all the screenplay drafts and from reports on set, it has the potential to be a critical darling. Ira Sachs is well-respected as a director and a person and reportedly drew out fantastic performances from his actors...and the casting is top-notch.



I saws The Queen finally last night - I think Helen's got this one in the bag. I wouldn't be surprised if Meryl is nominated for (and maybe wins) the Golden Globe for Best Comedic Actress but I think winning the Oscar for this one is a long-shot.

Updated On: 11/19/06 at 05:19 PM

[Raviolisun]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 7:12pm

I really hope Little Miss Sunshine wins something. I'm also pulling for Dreamgirls for Best picture, and Ryan Gosling in Half Nelson to get at least a nomination.

[MargoChanning]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 8:04pm

I'd love to see Jackie Earle Haley get a nod for LITTLE CHILDREN.

[boxers7]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 9:30pm

I think Will Smith will be recognized for The Pursuit of Happyness. It seems like a performance the Academy will love.

[Liverpool]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 9:32pm

the prediction websites are loving Abigail Breslin (the little girl from Little Miss Sunshine).

[CapnHook]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 9:40pm

Really? Which prediction website do you frequent? I've only seen the Joe Schmoes on prediction sites' message boards place her in the runnings...sometimes...

[Victoria Grant]

Posted: 11/19/06 at 9:45pm

I think that the Prestige could be in the running or the Illusionist. It seems that Hugh Jackman has been in quite a few movies this year so I would think we would see his name along the way.