The 2007 Oscar Predictions Thread - HOW WELL DID U PREDICT? Scores inside! — Page 8

When I think of a Best Picture quality film, I think of Schindler's List, Forrest Gump, A Beautiful Mind, Casablanca, Out of Africa, Gandhi, Rain Man etc. Not Little Miss Sunshine. I thought that it was a wonderfuly acted, written, and directed film which are all vital things for a good film. But the cinematography, score, art design etc. is what it lacked in, and in my opinion (eventhough the film did not call for that) you need to have all of that to make Best Picture. If it has great performances give them the best actor awards, if it is a great director give it best director, if it has a good script give it best original screenplay. But Best Picture is for the overall film, which means it should have the best of everything. And I think there were films that were FAR superior.

No because I found it to be painfully boring. I would be content with a win from Babel, The Departed, or Dreamgirls.

I do think it means that this year's Best Picture race is solidly "wide open."

There is no clear runaway choice. Everyone seems to have "qualifiers" with all their choices.

"I loved [insert movie title], but..."

I haven't talked to anyone who doesn't have some issue with every single choice for Best Picture. It's a year with good pictures, but not one "perfect film." You can look at it negatively, and say this wasn't the best year... or you can say, this ought to make for a really great "horse race" for the top award.

We'll know a little more when the SAG and WGA awards are announced, but even if they go any of the predicted ways (Dreamgirls, Departed, Sunshine, Babel or Queen), it's not going to be a clear indication of a frontrunner. Not at this point. Any one of them could win the top prize.

---

Dano and Carrell don't have a chance.

---

I agree, the Best Picture race is WIDE OPEN. It could go to Dreamgirls, Little Miss Sunshine, Babel, or The Departed. Whatever the 5th slot ends up being, which could be The Queen, United 93, or Letters From Iwo Jima, is not going to win.

Right now, I think these are the chances of a win:

Dreamgirls: 29%
Little Miss Sunshine: 29%
The Departed: 26%
Babel: 14%
Other: 2%

---

Yup. I really do. THE QUEEN is just not going to win. I'd bet everything I own on that. Of course Dreamgirls or LMS would win over it.

Babel is internationally international. And a good film. BUT, it will only get a limited amount of votes. To me, it IS that epic film that should win. But it won't. It just doesn't have the support that other films have.

The Departed is the strongest of the drama flicks. If a pure drama flick wins this year, then THE DEPARTED will win. But I predict this year will go to a comedy.

The Academy will sway to either Dreamgirls or Little Miss Sunshine, unless of course they can't make up their minds and the vote splits allowing THE DEPARTED to take it.

---

CapnHook is talking out of his stinky ass, as always.

---

Updated On: 1/21/07 at 03:27 PM

Most all films have an international appeal. Babel is a film that speaks to everyone universally.

StageManager2, there's no need to be rude. We were having a discussion.

munk, THE DEPARTED is absolutely a drama. How is it NOT a drama? And I agree, THE DEPARTED shouldn't be nominated - but we aren't talking personal opinion here. We're talking "would be" not "should be."

And I'm sure THE QUEEN will get tons of votes. Just not as many as THE DEPARTED, DREAMGIRLS, BABEL, or LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE. In my opinion, it's a great film. A solid film. Great performances by Sheen and Mirren. But it's not as appeasing as other films this year, such as THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND, DREAMGIRLS, BABEL, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE, etc. Let's just say for the heck of it that THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND and THE QUEEN are both equal in the quality of its movie-making, screenplay, performances, etc. Which would you award Best Picture to? My vote would go to THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND. Comes down to taste. And from what I hear, the taste of the Academy isn't so much for THE QUEEN as it is for the other four films.

---

If it were up to me:

Blood Diamond
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
Babel
The Last King of Scotland

I have yet to see: For Your Consideration, L'Enfant, Notes On A Scandal, Little Children, Half Nelson, Letters From Iwo Jima, Venus, Hollywoodland and Pan's Labyrinth.

---

Okay, I'm sorry, but:

"And from what I hear, the taste of the Academy isn't so much for THE QUEEN as it is for the other four films."

What? What are you hearing?

1. The Oscar nominations haven't come out yet.

2. Therefore, the members of the Academy haven't voted yet.

What are you talking about the taste of the academy isn't so much for the queen? You mean their past voting, or what?


And I thought THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND was good, but no where as breathtaking as THE QUEEN. There's a reason that THE QUEEN is the best reviewed film of the year.

---

I can comment on the "hear" factor, because I hear buzz in town... some from voting members, some from wannabes and some from fans. Yes, the Academy members haven't voted yet, but that isn't going to change their opinion about what they've seen and like already (...or don't like already). Many of the screeners and screenings have been out for some time now, and people are already discussing and making choices.

Hollywood Buzz is never scientific, but I've grown accustomed to getting a vibe for what people like and don't like in the community. And it's not always what I like... but I still hear the comments.

As of now, everyone is saying, "I like THIS film, but..."

They all have qualifiers. None are runaway films with a bandwagon of support.

...which makes this year's race less than brilliantly perfect (since no single film is being called that), but it makes the race all the more interesting too.

---

best12bars,

Precisely. Except I hear buzz for LMS, Dreamgirls, Departed, and Babel much more frequently than for The Queen. Which doesn't mean Queen won't get a nod or even won't win - just that IMHO it's much more less likely.

---