The 2007 Oscar Predictions Thread - HOW WELL DID U PREDICT? Scores inside! — Page 7

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#151

re: The 2007 Oscar Predictions Thread

Posted: 1/19/07 at 11:49am

I wrote this on oscarwatch.com and I'll write it here in regards to O'Toole.

He has a lot of things going for him but at the same time there is the horrible tendency, especially in years when it seems like many of the categories are going to be very predictable (which I don't believe this year is but many are starting to) to get "group think syndrome" where people want an upset so badly they start finding, exploiting and, oftentimes, exaggerating the possibilities for an upset. I think O'Toole, not having seen his performance, has a lot of momentum to make up and if he does not win the Screen Actors Guild award then the contest is close to over.

BSoBW2: I punched Sondheim in the face after I saw Wicked and said, "Why couldn't you write like that!?"

#152

re: The 2007 Oscar Predictions Thread

Posted: 1/19/07 at 12:50pm

broadway: Awards for what?????

sum: Very interesting. Though I don't think the SAG is necessarily the end-all-be-all predictory tool. The SAGs award excellence, while often times the Oscars take politics and past wins into consideration.

"If you are going to do something, do it well. And leave something witchy." -Charlie Manson

#153

re: The 2007 Oscar Predictions Thread

Posted: 1/19/07 at 1:01pm

Munk, I have a feeling you're going to be quite disappointed come Oscar time.

Salve, Regina, Mater misericordiae
Vita, dulcedo, et spes nostra
Salve, Salve Regina
Ad te clamamus exsules filii Eva
Ad te suspiramus, gementes et flentes
O clemens O pia

#154

re: The 2007 Oscar Predictions Thread

Posted: 1/19/07 at 1:19pm

What are you talking about??

"If you are going to do something, do it well. And leave something witchy." -Charlie Manson

#155

re: The 2007 Oscar Predictions Thread

Posted: 1/19/07 at 3:08pm

What do you guys think the chances are of either LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA or UNITED 93 making it into the Best Picture race?

"If you are going to do something, do it well. And leave something witchy." -Charlie Manson

#156

re: The 2007 Oscar Predictions Thread

Posted: 1/19/07 at 5:07pm

I saw LAST KING OF SCOTLAND today. WOW!! GREAT film! James McAvoy should have been getting buzz for Best Supporting Actor. He's much better than some of the already recognized supporting actors.

I also revisited UNITED 93 last night. It should not get a screenplay nod. It SHOULD get a Directing nod. It should NOT get a Best Picture nod. IMHO.

I'll update my predictions this weekend after I see LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA, PAN'S LABYRINTH, and THE PAINTED VEIL.

"The Spectacle has, indeed, an emotional attraction of its own, but, of all the parts, it is the least artistic, and connected least with the art of poetry. For the power of Tragedy, we may be sure, is felt even apart from representation and actors. Besides, the production of spectacular effects depends more on the art of the stage machinist than on that of the poet."
--Aristotle

#157

re: The 2007 Oscar Predictions Thread

Posted: 1/19/07 at 6:21pm

I saw Last King of Scotland a couple months ago, and I'm also suprprised that McAvoy hasn't been getting ANY buzz for Supporting Actor. Usually when you have such a dynamic lead (Whitaker) the actor/ess who's supporting them automatically getting a little residual buzz. If I had it my way, the supporting actor nominees would be:

Alan Arkin-Sunshine
Jackie Earl Haley-Little Children
James McAvoy-Scotland
Eddie Murphy-Dreamgirls
Michael Sheen-The Queen

I haven't seen Blood Diamond yet, so I can't comment on Hounsou. IMHO, Nicholson was WAY overrated in his scene chewing role in The Departed. I'm sure he's (other than Murphy) about as assured a slot as you can get, but he'd definitely be the first person of the names regularly batted around that I'd scrap.

ETA: With such a strong year for Supporting Actors (considering my 5, Nicholson, Wahlburg, Carell, Hounsou, Sergi Lopez, Adam Beach, etc, etc, I'll be ripSH*T if/when DiCaprio gets bumped down to supporting for The Departed so he can get his two nominations. Sorry, you're lead. Suck it up and take your single nom. There are far too many good performances that are going to get bumped for this crap (and by crap, I mean finagling with the system, not DiCaprio's performance).

But when did New Hampshire become--Such a backward wasteland of seatbelt hating crazies?...I mean, only 40 people actually live there. The others are just visitors who come for the tax-free liquor and three inches of novelty coastline. John Hodgeman on The Daily Show (1-30-07)

Updated On: 1/19/07 at 06:21 PM

#158

re: The 2007 Oscar Predictions Thread

Posted: 1/19/07 at 7:06pm

United 93 would have a stronger chance at a nomination for Best Picture I believe merely based on the number of critics awards it has won...if that's indicative of ANYTHING (open to debate!)

BSoBW2: I punched Sondheim in the face after I saw Wicked and said, "Why couldn't you write like that!?"

#159

re: The 2007 Oscar Predictions Thread

Posted: 1/20/07 at 1:33am

I agree with that.

I saw VENUS tonight.

What a twisted, mess of a film.

"If you are going to do something, do it well. And leave something witchy." -Charlie Manson

#160

re: The 2007 Oscar Predictions Thread

Posted: 1/20/07 at 1:47am

Munk, was your audience also mostly made up of very old men who obviously thought Venus a "sweet romantic comedy" in the vein of Pretty Woman?

That scene at the table with the wet hands. *shiver*

I'm not sure that I didn't like it. I'm still trying to figure out what it was saying about relationships.

#161

re: The 2007 Oscar Predictions Thread

Posted: 1/20/07 at 1:53am

It was mostly younger guys around my age, and a couple middle aged women. Not one old man.

SPOILERS AHEAD

I really enjoyed the movie, but it turned me off very quickly. I found his "love" for Venus to be disgusting, unbelievable, and off-putting. The sub-plots matriculated from left field, and nothing was ever fully developed - other than the fact that he basically wanted to eat Venus alive. It's a very complex relationship, and there are many things about the film I didn't understand.

If he's a famous actor, why does he have no money? I found the whole thing to be a convoluted, messy, cry for attention from O'Toole. I mean, he's great - he's playing hilmself in a film about himself. He reminds you at every turn that this could be his last movie (so give him the Oscar while you can) and all that sort of thing. It got to be too much, and after a while, I felt like I was watching a Tyler Perry movie.

But on a positive note, I can't get that damn song out of my head.....

"If you are going to do something, do it well. And leave something witchy." -Charlie Manson

#162

re: The 2007 Oscar Predictions Thread

Posted: 1/20/07 at 11:06am

BEST PICTURE:

- THE DEPARTED
- DREAMGIRLS
- LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
- THE QUEEN or UNITED 93
- BABEL

BEST DIRECTOR:

- Pedro Almodovar, VOLVER
- Bill Condon, DREAMGIRLS
- Clint Eastwood, LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
- Martin Scorsese, THE DEPARTED
- Steven Sodebergh, THE GOOD GERMAN

BEST ACTOR:

- Will Ferrel, STRANGER THAN FICTION
- Leonardo DiCaprio, THE DEPARTED
- Sacha Baron Cohen ,BORAT
- Peter O'Toole, VENUS
- Forest Whitaker, THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND

BEST ACTRESS:

- Meryl Streep, THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA
- Penelope Cruz, VOLVER
- Judi Dench, NOTES ON A SCANDAL
- Helen Mirren, THE QUEEN
- Kate Winslet, LITTLE CHILDREN

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

- Eddie Murphy, DREAMGIRLS
- Jack Nicholson, THE DEPARTED
- Brad Pitt, BABEL
- Steve Carell, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
- Paul Dano, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

- Cate Blanchett, NOTES ON A SCANDAL
- Anne Hathaway, THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA
- Jennifer Hudson, DREAMGIRLS
- Abigail Breslin, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
- Catherine O Hara, FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

BEST ANIMATED FILM:
- HAPPY FEET
- CARS
- FLUSHED AWAY

BEST FOREIGN FILM:
- APOCALYPTO
- PAN'S LABYRINTH
- LETTER'S FROM IWO JUMA
- VOLVER

The rest are my winners, not nods:

Best Costume Design:
THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA

Best Art Direction:
DREAMGIRLS

Best Cinematography:
DREAMGIRLS

Best Visual Effects:
NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM

#163

re: The 2007 Oscar Predictions Thread

Posted: 1/20/07 at 1:19pm

I think your predictions are a tad off, though different upsets like that WOULD be fun.

"If you are going to do something, do it well. And leave something witchy." -Charlie Manson

#164

re: The 2007 Oscar Predictions Thread

Posted: 1/20/07 at 2:09pm

Again, APOCALYPTO and LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA are not eligible for Best Foreign Feature Film.

#165

re: The 2007 Oscar Predictions Thread

Posted: 1/20/07 at 2:11pm

Oh...

#166

re: The 2007 Oscar Predictions Thread

Posted: 1/20/07 at 2:16pm

Yeah, being that...you know...they are US films...

Did anyone else see VENUS? I would really like to talk about it.

"If you are going to do something, do it well. And leave something witchy." -Charlie Manson

#167

re: The 2007 Oscar Predictions Thread

Posted: 1/20/07 at 2:18pm

broadway: Awards for what?????

Supporting Actor and Actress.

#168

re: The 2007 Oscar Predictions Thread

Posted: 1/20/07 at 2:21pm

I didn't know if you meant Toby for INFAMOUS.

He wasn't that good. At all. And neither was she. You certainly have bizarre taste in supporting performances. They didn't do anything meriting any sort of attention.

And go see VENUS now so we can talk about it. It's so odd.

"If you are going to do something, do it well. And leave something witchy." -Charlie Manson

#169

re: The 2007 Oscar Predictions Thread

Posted: 1/20/07 at 2:25pm

And neither was she.

Rigg?!?! Perhaps you should see it again.

You certainly have bizarre taste in supporting performances.

I do...?

They didn't do anything meriting any sort of attention.

That's how I felt about Pitt in Babel.

And go see VENUS now so we can talk about it. It's so odd.

I really want to, but I'm at school in the middle of nowhere!

#170

re: The 2007 Oscar Predictions Thread

Posted: 1/20/07 at 2:29pm

I thought Pitt was excellent, but not Oscar worthy. Toby just didn't do ANYTHING. Rigg just SAT there and acted Motherly. I kept waiting for her to break into "Climb Every Mountain."

"If you are going to do something, do it well. And leave something witchy." -Charlie Manson

#171

re: The 2007 Oscar Predictions Thread

Posted: 1/20/07 at 2:36pm

Rigg just SAT there and acted Motherly.

Munk, I'm disappointed. It was a brilliant performance, full-bodied with only a handful of scenes. Consider the scene where she fights to bring Kitty and Walter back together. Award-worthy work right there.

I kept waiting for her to break into "Climb Every Mountain."

ROFL!

#172

re: The 2007 Oscar Predictions Thread

Posted: 1/20/07 at 2:40pm

I thought the category was Best Foreign Language Film. APOCALYPTO and LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA are in Yukatec Maya and Japanese, respectively. How does that not qualify?

Salve, Regina, Mater misericordiae
Vita, dulcedo, et spes nostra
Salve, Salve Regina
Ad te clamamus exsules filii Eva
Ad te suspiramus, gementes et flentes
O clemens O pia

#173

re: The 2007 Oscar Predictions Thread

Posted: 1/20/07 at 4:49pm

The language in which the picture is spoken in isn't the main qualifier. It's the country that released the film.

If you go to the Oscars website, they have a press release stating a shortlist of foreign language films which made it into the finals. I also posted this list earlier in this very thread.

#174

re: The 2007 Oscar Predictions Thread

Posted: 1/20/07 at 4:53pm

Munk, I saw VENUS recently and agree with you. I think they were trying to make it touching, but it really just came off as creepy. I did enjoy the scenes between O'Toole and Redgrave, though.

"You travel alone because other people are only there to remind you how much that hook hurts that we all bit down on. Wait for that one day we can bite free and get back out there in space where we belong, sail back over water, over skies, into space, the hook finally out of our mouths and we wander back out there in space spawning to other planets never to return hurrah to earth and we'll look back and can't even see these lives here anymore. Only the taste of blood to remind us we ever existed. The earth is small. We're gone. We're dead. We're safe." -John Guare, Landscape of the Body

#175

re: The 2007 Oscar Predictions Thread

Posted: 1/20/07 at 11:16pm

Best Picture
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
Babel
The Queen

Note: As much as I loved Little Miss Sunshine, I really did not think it was Best Picture quality.

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