The 2007 Oscar Predictions Thread - HOW WELL DID U PREDICT? Scores inside!- Page 10

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 1/22/07 at 1:32pm

I don't think DREAMGIRLS will be snubbed for UNITED 93; I think the only film that has a chance of being replaced for a Best Picture nomination is BABEL but its chances of not getting a nod are slim.

The Best Picture nominees, to me, are locks. If there's going to be a shocker, it will come in the acting categories (probably not Best Actress, though).

[Sumofallthings]

Posted: 1/22/07 at 1:35pm

Cohen has great momentum after the Globe win and I would definitely not consider it a surprise if he picked up a nomination replacing Will Smith in Happyness.

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 1/22/07 at 1:44pm

I still think DREAMGIRLS could be last years' WALK THE LINE.

wicked: I think BABEL is an absolute lock for best picture.

[Sumofallthings]

Posted: 1/22/07 at 1:59pm

I disagree Munk. Dreamgirls just feels different. It's hard for me to describe but the way they are conducting their campaign is so professional and their buzz is still good enough that I am certain it will be nominated. I also don't think there is another film that has enough strength to replace it at this point. Plus its nomination and win at the Globes strengthened it quite a bit which doesn't matter for nominations. The buzz was even stronger around nomination time for Dreamgirls.

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 1/22/07 at 2:02pm

I mean, I guess you're right.

But last year WALK THE LINE won 2 acting awards AND the best picture award at the golden globes as well.

And, other than cinematography and a handfull of other things, I don't really think that DREAMGIRLS is any better than WALK THE LINE.

They might use it as the opportunity to nominate UNITED 93. And I do believe that IWO JIMA won the Los Angeles Film Critics Award for best picture- that means something.

[CapnHook]

Posted: 1/22/07 at 2:19pm

Borstalboy, this is one of the most interesting Oscar seasons in years. Several categories have TWO spots where an upset can occur. Only three locks per category.

Munk, I like your predictions for Best Pic. That was my second line-up choice. However, I wouldn't say BABEL is a lock. It's right on the border.

DREAMGIRLS is getting a nod for Best Pic. 'Nuff said.

I think Cohen is definitely Oscar worthy. His transformation was the strongest, IMHO. The best "acting" I have seen. AND it wasn't scripted. He truly WAS a different person, with different views on life, a different sense of humor, a different way of living, and a different sense of the world. The only piece of Sacha Baron Cohen I saw in the character was the humor, ironically. BORAT isn't the type of movie that gets this type of recognition, especially in the acting field, but for once, I think the academy is going to do something right and give him a nod.

Compare Cohen with Jack Nicholson's performance in THE DEPARTED (and forget that one is supporting and one is leading, that doesn't matter for this example). Who did you see more of in their performances? Did you see more Jack or more Sacha Baron Cohen? I definitely saw a LOT of Jack and barely any of Cohen.

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 1/22/07 at 2:22pm

That's because Jack Nicholson was playing a real person. Cohen was playing a big, goofy caracature. Please, you can't compare the two.


How can you, with so much confidence, say that DREAMGIRLS will definitely get nominated? I think it's in danger, and if you go to all of the other Oscar blogs and boards and predictors - they all think so, too. I think BABEL is a 100% lock.

[CapnHook]

Posted: 1/22/07 at 2:35pm

I don't know which boards and sites you frequent, but Tom O'Neill, Sasha Stone, Jeffrey Wells, Anne Thompson, David Carr, and David Poland all keep DREAMGIRLS in their top 5.

Cohen, yes, was playing a charactature, but arguably also a real person. After all, a character is only as written. In the case of Borat, the character wasn't so much written on paper as it was written in the mind of Sacha Baron Cohen. If I'm not mistaken, Catherin Zeta-Jones won an Oscar for her role "Velma Kelly" who can also arguably be called a charactature (even though the role was written). Look at ALL the acting in MOULING ROUGE! Look at Tom Hanks as Forrest Gump! Anthony Hopkins as Dr. Lecter! Dustin Hoffman in RAIN MAN! Johnny Depp as Jack Sparrow! All these roles are of a "real person" taken to the extreme, as is Borat. That is what makes these stories so interesting to watch - the extremism!

Updated On: 1/22/07 at 02:35 PM

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 1/22/07 at 2:42pm

I'm done arguing about Cohen.

[best12bars]

Posted: 1/22/07 at 2:42pm

I think Babel, Little Miss Sunshine and The Queen aren't locked for Best Picture nominations. Any one of them could be replaced by United 93, Pan's Labyrinth or Letters From Iwo Jima.

I believe Dreamgirls and The Departed are the only locks.

I'm predicting this...

Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan's Labyrinth

Just a hunch about the last one that it's probably going to sneak into this category.

If it's not... then The Queen.

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 1/22/07 at 2:44pm

Oh, and as far as DREAMGIRLS is concerned:

I never said that any of the big predictors are saying that it would be snubbed.

I SAID that many, many people are beginning to say that it's in danger of getting knocked down in favor of one of the other two films.

It's still in the top 5, but that doesn't mean that it couldn't be in danger. That's ALL I'm saying. I never said they said it wouldn'g get nominated - I said that a bunch of them say that the buzz is fading and that it might get dropped.

[CapnHook]

Posted: 1/22/07 at 2:52pm

munk, take a deep breath. LOL. I intend for this to just be a friendly discussion on the Oscar race. No need to bring on the heat.

Done talking about Cohen? Did I change your mind? ::winks sarcastically::

As for DREAMGIRLS, yes, it's steam has cooled, but I haven't read about it getting knocked down (off the list). Losing steam doesn't mean not getting a nod. I think there is a misunderstanding here between us - I think you should be saving that argument AFTER the nods are announced, when everyone here will be saying DREAMGIRLS will WIN Best Pictire. ::winks for real::

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 1/22/07 at 2:56pm

Wow; that would be a huge shocker if PAN'S LABYRINTH got a nod.

It would certainly make the race a lot more interesting...

I can say with nearly 100% certainty that DREAMGIRLS and THE DEPARTED are locks for Best Picture nominations and the race is between these two films. Look at the PGA, National Board of Review, BAFTA, and Golden Globes all you want but when it comes down to it, I stick by my theory that it will be a very close call between THE DEPARTED and DREAMGIRLS. The other films have almost no chance of winning, IMO.

[CapnHook]

Posted: 1/22/07 at 3:00pm

Here are some very SMART and bold predictions from Scott Feinberg:

http://andthewinneris.blog.com/1466355/

[DG]

Posted: 1/22/07 at 3:08pm

I didn't see THE FOUNTAIN, but the stills I've seen indicate some serious art direction - and yet, I don't see it being mentioned by those who pay attention to that category. Is the film such a mess that it won't be considered?

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 1/22/07 at 3:11pm

Perhaps THE FOUNTAIN could be considered for Art Direction or Visual Effects, but the film was so God awful that I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up being snubbed alltogether.

I do think that THE FOUNTAIN deserves an Oscar nom for best score, though.


Capn: Take a deep breath? Huh? I'm very relaxed.

No, you didn't change my mind about Cohen - but we're obviously of two different mindsets here. We don't agree, and no amount of campaigning on either side is going to convince the other one, so I figured I'd just abandon ship.

Wicked: How are you so sure that the race is only between DREAMGIRLS and THE DEPARTED? I wish everyone else knew that much.

[Unknown User]

Posted: 1/22/07 at 3:55pm

The Envelope's Predictions:

BEST PICTURE
"The Departed"
"Little Miss Sunshine"
"Dreamgirls"
"Babel"
"The Queen"

Also in the running:
"Letters from Iwo Jima"
"Little Children"
"Pan's Labyrinth"
"United 93


BEST DIRECTOR
Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"
Clint Eastwood, "Letters from Iwo Jima"
Bill Condon, "Dreamgirls"
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, "Babel"
Stephen Frears, "The Queen"

Also in the running:
Pedro Almodovar, "Volver"
Alfonso Cuaron, "Children of Men"
Paul Greengrass, "United 93"
Guillermo Del Toro, "Pan's Labyrinth"
Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, "Litte Miss Sunshine"
Todd Field, "Little Children"


BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Departed"
Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"
Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
Ryan Gosling, "Half Nelson"
Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"

Also in the running:
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Blood Diamond"
Sacha Baron Cohen, "Borat"
Hugh Jackman, "The Fountain," "The Prestige"
Derek Luke, "Catch a Fire"
Edward Norton, "The Illustionist," "The Painted Veil"
Ken Watanabe, "Letters from Iwo Jima"


BEST ACTRESS
Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"
Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal"
Kate Winslet, "Little Children"
Penelope Cruz, "Volver"

Also in the running:
Annette Bening, "Running with Scissors"
Maggie Gyllenhaal, "Sherrybaby"
Sienna Miller, "Factory Girl"
Naomi Watts, "The Painted Veil"
Renee Zellweger, "Miss Potter"


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"
Brad Pitt, "Babel"
Jackie Earle Haley, "Little Children"
Jack Nicholson, "The Departed"

Also in the running:
Ben Affleck, "Hollywoodland"
Adam Beach, "Flags of Our Fathers"
Michael Caine, "Children of Men"
Djimon Hounsou, "Blood Diamond"
James McAvoy, "Last King of Scotland"
Michael Sheen, "The Queen"
Stanley Tucci, "The Devil Wears Prada"
Mark Wahlberg, "The Departed"


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Adriana Barraza, "Babel"
Cate Blanchett, "Notes on a Scandal"
Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Rinko Kikuchi, "Babel"

Also in the running:
Emily Blunt, "The Devil Wears Prada"
Shareek Epps, "Half Nelson"
Toni Collette, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Vera Farmiga, "The Departed"
Vanessa Redgrave, "Venus"


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
"The Departed"
"Borat"
"Little Children"
"Notes on a Scandal"
"The Devil Wears Prada"


Also in the running:
"Children of Men"
"Flags of Our Fathers"
"The Illusionist"
"The History Boys"
"Last King of Scotland"
"The Prestige"
"Thank You for Smoking"


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
"Little Miss Sunshine"
"The Queen"
"Babel"
"Pan's Labyrinth"
"Volver"

Also in the running:
"The Fountain"
"Letters from Iwo Jima"
"Lives of Others"
"Stranger Than Fiction"
"Venus"

[Sumofallthings]

Posted: 1/22/07 at 4:12pm

My Oscar Predictions on my new blog:

www.hyperactiveactor.blogspot.com

[broadway86]

Posted: 1/22/07 at 6:23pm

FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS

Picture
Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
(poss. upset: United 93)

Director
Bill Condon
Clint Eastwood
Stephen Frears
Alejandro Innaritu
Martin Scorsese
(poss. upset: Guillermo Del Toro)

Actor
Sasha Baron Cohen
Leonardo DiCaprio
Peter O'Toole
Will Smith
Forest Whitaker
(poss. upset: Ryan Gosling)

Actress
Penelope Cruz
Judi Dench
Helen Mirren
Meryl Streep
Kate Winslet
(poss. upset: Maggie Gyllenhaal)

Supp. Actor
Alan Arkin
Jackie Earle Haley
Djimon Honsou
Eddie Murphy
Jack Nicholson
(poss. upsets: Mark Wahlberg and Michael Sheen)

Supp. Actress
Adriana Barraza
Cate Blanchett
Abigail Breslin
Jennifer Hudson
Rinko Kikuchi
(poss. upsets: Emily Blunt and Vera Farmiga)

Original Screenplay
Babel
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen
Stranger Than Fiction

Adapted Screenplay
The Departed
The Devil Wears Prada
Little Children
Notes on a Scandal
Thank You For Smoking

[Michael Bennett]

Posted: 1/22/07 at 10:06pm

Watch out for some surprise noms for THE ILLUSIONIST and THE PAINTED VEIL...

[CapnHook]

Posted: 1/22/07 at 10:06pm

broadway86, I assume you're placing DiCaprio for THE DEPARTED and Blancett for NOTES ON A SCANDAL? Or is it BLOOD DIAMOND and THE GOOD GERMAN?

[CapnHook]

Posted: 1/22/07 at 10:30pm

Michael Bennett - yeah, in the Tech/Design categories...

[Sumofallthings]

Posted: 1/23/07 at 12:01am

Munk, if Dreamgirls was strong enough to be nominated and win the Golden Globe I think that means it had enough momentum at nomination time for an Oscar nod.

[broadway86]

Posted: 1/23/07 at 12:41am

Only three locks per category.

Not neessarily, especially for the acting categories.

Best Actor: Whitaker, O'Toole, DiCaprio, and Will Smith are locks. The fifth spot is open. Sort of.

Best Actress: All five are locks. Id be shocked if even Maggie Gyllenhaal could upset this category.

Best Supporting Actor: Only one lock - Murphy.

Best Supporting Actress: Four locks- Hudson, Blanchett, Barraza, and Kikuchi.

broadway86, I assume you're placing DiCaprio for THE DEPARTED and Blancett for NOTES ON A SCANDAL? Or is it BLOOD DIAMOND and THE GOOD GERMAN?

The former.

[PJ]

Posted: 1/23/07 at 12:46am

Still hoping that Emily Blunt can sneak in that Best Supporting Actress category. The strength of Meryl's performance and adoration could pull Emily in towards a nod.

I'm very interested to see who gets in the Supporting Actor category. This is the most unpredictable category in terms of who's even going to be nominated.