The 2007 Oscar Predictions Thread - HOW WELL DID U PREDICT? Scores inside! — Page 9

"SM2---Seriously! What's up with a comment like that? If your campaigning for King Rude Mutherf*cker, you have my vote as of late."

As of late?


"* waits for SM2 to surely correct my INCORRECT use of the word 'your' *"

Am I that predictable?

WiCkEDrOcKS: I don't think the Academy nominates one person twice in the same category, unlike, say, the Golden Globes. Thus, Leo will not be nominated as Best Actor for THE DEPARTED and BLOOD DIAMOND, respectively. Directing is a different matter, altogether.

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The general comments I hear on "The Queen"...


"Helen Mirren will win the Oscar, but she should win the EMMY. This is like a wonderful little BBC TV film, not like a movie."

That's not one person's comment, but a general consensus... so far.

But when everyone has qualifiers about the films they are seeing, they will ultimately pick between the lesser of the qualifications... which means people change their minds last-minute... jumping from one ship to the other.

That's why I think it ain't over yet... and we can and will see wide swings of support over the next few weeks. The key is to figure out which way the wind is blowing when they fill in their little boxes on the ballot. That's gonna be tricky to peg.

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2006 was a great year at the movies; honestly. It's too bad that most of the box office smashes were terrible and most of the box office mediocrities were sickeningly overlooked.

The Departed, Dreamgirls, Little Miss Sunshine, and The Queen were all first-rate films in my book. (I thought Babel was overrated and overwrought and meandered on with no purpose for two and a half hours...it featured some great performances -most notably Adriana Barraza who would easily be my pick for Best Supporting Actress if not for Jennifer Hudson- but was pretentious and bland, in my opinion.)

We should have some kind of an award "ceremony" on BWW awarding the overlooked performances/films of the year since it seems like we all make our way to the big blockbusters AND the small "films that could" as well.

Whoever said Jamie Foxx should get an Oscar nod?

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I agree.

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sumofallthings: too late. The campaign started back at CANNES last...what was it? March? But you are very correct and that is what they did: they promoted Hudson, Murphy, the film, "Listen" and the new songs, Condon, and all design categories over Beyonce, Foxx, Noni Rose, and Glover.

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CAPNHOOK'S FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR OSCAR NOMINATIONS OF THE 2006 YEAR:

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR:
BABEL
THE DEPARTED
DREAMGIRLS
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
THE QUEEN

ACHIEVMENT IN DIRECTING:
Bill Condon, DREAMGIRLS
Clint Eastwood, LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
Stephen Frears, THE QUEEN
Paul Greengrass, UNITED 93
Martin Scorsese, THE DEPARTED

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Sacha Baron Cohen, BORAT
Ryan Gosling, HALF NELSON
Peter O’Toole, VENUS
Will Smith, THE PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS
Forest Whitaker, THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
Penelope Cruz, VOLVER
Judi Dench, NOTES ON A SCANDAL
Helen Mirren, THE QUEEN
Meryl Streep, THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA
Kate Winslet, LITTLE CHILDREN

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Ben Affleck, HOLLYWOODLAND
Alan Arkin, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
Djimon Hounsou, BLOOD DIAMOND
Eddie Murphy, DREAMGIRLS
Jack Nicholson, THE DEPARTED

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Adriana Barraza, BABEL
Cate Blanchett, NOTES ON A SCANDAL
Abigail Breslin, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
Jennifer Hudson, DREAMGIRLS
Rinko Kikuchi, BABEL

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
William Monahan, THE DEPARTED
Aline Brosh McKenna, THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA
Bill Condon, DREAMGIRLS
Todd Field and Tom Perrotta, LITTLE CHILDREN
Patrick Marber, NOTES ON A SCANDAL

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Guillermo Arriaga, BABEL
Michael Arndt, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
Guillermo Del Toro, PAN’S LABYRINTH
Peter Morgan, THE QUEEN
Zach Helm, STRANGER THAN FICTION

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
CARS
FLUSHED AWAY*
HAPPY FEET
MONSTER HOUSE
OVER THE HEDGE*
(* pending decision not yet made on whether 15 films have been qualified)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM:
DELIVER US FROM EVIL
AN INCONVIENENT TRUTH
IRAQ IN FRAGMENTS
JESUS CAMP
SHUT UP AND SING

ACHIEVMENT IN ART DIRECTION:
CURSE OF THE GOLDEN FLOWER
DREAMGIRLS
MARIE ANTOINETTE
PAN'S LABYRINTH
THE PRESTIGE

ACHIEVMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY:
APOCALYPTO
BABEL
THE DEPARTED
DREAMGIRLS
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA

ACHIEVMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN:
CURSE OF THE GOLDEN FLOWER
DREAMGIRLS
THE ILLUSIONIST
MARIE ANTOINETTE
THE PAINTED VEIL

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
DAYS OF GLORY (Algeria)
THE LIVES OF OTHERS (Germany)
THE PAN'S LABYRINTH (Mexico)
VOLVER (Spain)
WATER (Canada)

ACHIEVMENT IN FILM EDITING:
BABEL
CASINO ROYALE
THE DEPARTED
DREAMGIRLS
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA

ACHIEVMENT IN MAKEUP:
APOCALYPTO
PAN’S LABYRINTH
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN - DEAD MAN'S CHEST

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
Gustavo Santaolalla, BABEL
Phillip Glass, NOTES ON A SCANDAL
Howard Shore, THE DEPARTED
Hans Zimmer, THE DA VINCI CODE
Alexandre Desplat, THE PAINTED VEIL

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
"I Need to Wake Up," AN INCONVIENENT TRUTH
"Listen," DREAMGIRLS
"Love You I Do," DREAMGIRLS
"The Song of the Heart," HAPPY FEET
"A Father's Way," THE PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS

ACHIEVMENT IN SOUND EDITING:
CARS
CASINO ROYALE
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
DREAMGIRLS
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST

ACHIEVMENT IN SOUND:
BLOOD DIAMOND
CHILDREN OF MEN
DREAMGIRLS
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST

ACHIEVMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS:
ERAGON
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN - DEAD MAN'S CHEST
X-MEN - THE LAST STAND

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Updated On: 1/22/07 at 12:24 PM

Some notes on my predictions:

The boldest prediction will have to be Bill Condon's screenplay for DREAMGIRLS. While the film was, in my opinion, spectacular - this is one category where DREAMGIRLS can drop a nod to the screenplay for THANK YOU FOR SMOKING.

The second boldest is Sacha Baron Cohen for BORAT. I think this is going to be a big surprise come tomorrow morning, snubbing Leonardo di Caprio for THE DEPARTED. Why? I think either he or Will Smith will get the snub, probably with it being Di Caprio because of the split vote between THE DEPARTED and BLOOD DIAMOND. Those voting for him for BLOOD DIAMOND will take away some votes he would have otherwise received, allowing Sacha Baron Cohen to pass and get a nod.

The category I had the most trouble with was actually Best Song. "Never Gonna Break My Faith" from BOBBY should get a nod as should "Try Not To Remember" from HOME OF THE BRAVE and "Ordinary Miracle" from CHARLOTTE'S WEB. If one of these replace a song, it will be "A Father's Way" or "Love You I Do."

The category I had the second most trouble with was Best Documentary Feature. WORDPLAY, THE WAR TAPES, JONESTOWN, MY COUNTRY, MY COUNTRY etc. could always make it's way in, especially THE WAR TAPES.

Best Director was another tough category. I removed Alejandro Gonzalez-Inarritu for BABEL to add Paul Greengrass for UNITED 93. UNITED 93 just isn't going to get overlooked in everything (Picture, Director, Screenplay). Either the screenplay or the direction will get a nod, and I think it'll be in direction.

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Updated On: 1/22/07 at 12:33 PM

PS: Matt Damon deserves nominations for both THE DEPARTED and THE GOOD SHEPHARD.


And I know I keep mentioning just about every performance given in a film this year that deserves a nomination (Haha) but I found the majority of this year's performances to be so great that it's hard for me to choose just five in each respective category...

Updated On: 1/22/07 at 12:48 PM

I think the nominees will be:
Gosling, HALF NELSON
Whitaker, SCOTLAND
DiCaprio, DEPARTED
Smith, HAPPYNESS
O'Toole, VENUS

If it was up to me, the nominees would be:
Gosling, HALF NELSON
Whitaker, SCOTLAND
Damon, THE GOOD SHEPHARD
O'Toole, VENUS
Craig, CASINO ROYALE

and I would nominate Damon as a supporting actor for THE DEPARTED.

Munk, who would you nominate?

I will be eternally pissed if they nominate Cohen over Gosling.

There is no suspense here. There will be no surprises. Not one.

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To me, Cohen is a surprise if he is nominated.

I think the only people guaranteed nominees in the BEST ACTOR category at this point are Whitaker, DiCaprio, and O'Toole.

I just hate the idea of Cohen getting a nomination. He was funny in Borat. And...that's about it. Gosling was phenomenal in Half Nelson. You simply cannot compare the performances. I would rather see someone like Patrick Wilson take Gosling's place for Little Children (which will NOT happen; I'm just using it as an example). Cohen has no shot in hell of winning so what's the point in nominating him? Not that Gosling does, but he has more of a chance than Cohen of taking home the Oscar.

I thought Borat was great and I thought he was hysterical in it but...Oscar worthy? Absolutely not.