The 2009 Oscar Predictions Thread- Page 3

[jasonf]

Posted: 1/22/09 at 9:38am

I've only seen Button and Slumdog of the five nominees so far -- definitely rooting for Button. I wasn't that impressed with Slumdog. I am genuinely surprised Dark Knight wasn't nominated for best movie.

[StageManager2]

Posted: 1/22/09 at 9:39am

Uh, Dre, do you understand how the Academy works? They nominated Downey, Jr. for his performance in TROPIC THUNDER, not the movie.

[Dre2387]

Posted: 1/22/09 at 9:42am

I realize that. then don;t say that it was because Downey was having a good year. I've just heard bad things about Tropic Thunder and knew it was a blockbuster hit and wondering if I should take a look at it.

[best12bars]

Posted: 1/22/09 at 9:44am

I forgot about Springsteen! That's a horrible oversight.

They cut the category down to only three songs, then limited the number of songs from any one movie (after Dreamgirls got its three) to two.

So we have one song from Wall-E.

And two songs from Slumdog?? What 2 songs?! The Bollywood one at the end was good and lots of fun (in a Mamma Mia sort of way), but where's the other one? And how did it beat out Springsteen?

Oh, well.

EDIT: Oh, and I thought a song that plays strictly over the credits of a movie isn't eligible anymore ... so maybe that end song with the big dance number isn't one of the two? If it is, it shouldn't have been eligible according to the Academy rules, unless they played it somewhere else in the movie first.

Updated On: 1/22/09 at 09:44 AM

[StageManager2]

Posted: 1/22/09 at 9:48am

I said no such thing, Dre! Here's a concept: Watch the movie, then place a judgment.

besty, they cut down the category after ENCHANTED's 3 noms last year, not DREAMGIRLS.

And I'm surprised about the Springsteen snub, too. SLUMDOG's songs were not memorable to me. Neither was WALL-E's, but that's neither here nor there.

Updated On: 1/22/09 at 09:48 AM

[jasonf]

Posted: 1/22/09 at 9:50am

I might be wrong, but I think one of the songs played during the opening chase...

Still, Springsteen not getting nominated is ridiculous.

Dre - see Tropic Thunder -- Robert Downey Jr. and (can't believe I'm saying this) Tom Cruise are hilarious in it. The funniest moment in the movie, for me though, didn't involve either of them, but I don't want to give it away. Hoenstly, though, what's the difference who they nominated -- Heath Ledger has a lock on that win anyway!

[tazber]

Posted: 1/22/09 at 9:50am

And those Slumdog songs are by the same guy who wrote that dreadful Bombay Dreams musical.
*shudder*

[Dre2387]

Posted: 1/22/09 at 9:54am

Stagemanger2: it wasn't you that that comment was directed to, it was BustopherPhantom.

and I will see it. I just...I don;t know. But I will see it and get back to you.

[best12bars]

Posted: 1/22/09 at 10:39am

Thanks, SM2! I forgot about Enchanted. I forget about it more than I remember it, so it seems. Not a bad movie, just not something that stuck with me.

[MTVMANN]

Posted: 1/22/09 at 12:58pm

I would just like to say "Told you so" about Cate Blanchett NOT getting a nomination!!!!!!

Also, I thought that the Animated Feature Film category was gone?

[pli1018]

Posted: 1/22/09 at 1:32pm

Right now the only category I'm certain about is Best Animated Feature. WALL-E's got it in the bag.

[Roscoe]

Posted: 1/22/09 at 3:04pm

Best motion picture of the year
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“Frost/Nixon”
“Milk”
“The Reader”
“Slumdog Millionaire”

Will win: hard to say. I can't see the stuffy old Academy giving an Oscar to SLUMDOG, somehow, but you never know. The vote might be split between it and the unspeakable BENJAMIN BOREDOM. I'd choose MILK, and who knows maybe MILK will surprise us all? Yeah, right. Going by Roscoe's Oscar Theory (the most useless of the nominees usually wins) I'll go with BENJAMIN BUTTON, with SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE a more likely win.

Performance by an actor in a leading role
Richard Jenkins in “The Visitor”
Frank Langella in “Frost/Nixon”
Sean Penn in “Milk”
Brad Pitt in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Mickey Rourke in “The Wrestler”

Well, who can say. I'd guess Mickey Rourke, based on all the hype, but I think there may be a significant population who just can't bring themselves to check off the box next to Mickey Rourke for an Oscar. I'd like to see Penn win, myself, but I don't think it is terribly likely.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Josh Brolin in “Milk”
Robert Downey Jr. in “Tropic Thunder”
Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Doubt”
Heath Ledger in “The Dark Knight”
Michael Shannon in “Revolutionary Road”

I'd say give it to Josh Brolin, who actually had an actual supporting role, rather than Ledger who was for all intents and purposes the lead in that DARK KNIGHT think. But Ledger will probably win, there's just no way to deny the brilliance of his work as the Joker, try as some might.

Performance by an actress in a leading role
Anne Hathaway in “Rachel Getting Married”
Angelina Jolie in “Changeling”
Melissa Leo in “Frozen River”
Meryl Streep in “Doubt”
Kate Winslet in “The Reader”

Don't know, don't care, haven't seen any of them, and without the sublime Sally Hawkins from HAPPY-GO-LUCKY it doesn't matter a damn. Toss it to Winslet, she's long overdue, and it would continue the Oscar tradition of honoring the Right Actor for the Wrong Role.

Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Amy Adams in “Doubt”
Penélope Cruz in “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
Viola Davis in “Doubt”
Taraji P. Henson in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Marisa Tomei in “The Wrestler”

Don't know, don't care. As long as it doesn't go to Taraji P. Henson, they can give it to the janitor for all I care.

Best animated feature film of the year
“Bolt”
“Kung Fu Panda”
“WALL-E”

No question, this award should go to WALL-E. Whether or not it will is anyone's guess. I think it will.

Achievement in directing
David Fincher -- BENJAMIN BOREDOM
Ron Howard -- FROST/NIXON
Gus Van Sant -- MILK
Stephen Daldry -- THE READER
Danny Boyle -- SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

It will probably go to Boyle, I guess. I'd say the most worthy of the batch that I've seen is Van Sant's work on MILK.

Best foreign language film of the year
“The Baader Meinhof Complex”
“The Class”
"Departures”
“Revanche”
“Waltz with Bashir”

I've only actually seen WALTZ WITH BASHIR, and would love to see it win, if only to see a really good movie get some recognition.

Adapted screenplay
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Screenplay by Eric Roth, Screen story by Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
“Doubt” (Miramax), Written by John Patrick Shanley
“Frost/Nixon” (Universal), Screenplay by Peter Morgan
“The Reader” (The Weinstein Company), Screenplay by David Hare
“Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Screenplay by Simon Beaufoy

Couldn't care less. Probably SLUMDOG. Whatever.

Original screenplay
“Frozen River” (Sony Pictures Classics), Written by Courtney Hunt
“Happy-Go-Lucky” (Miramax), Written by Mike Leigh
“In Bruges” (Focus Features), Written by Martin McDonagh
“Milk” (Focus Features), Written by Dustin Lance Black
“WALL-E” (Walt Disney), Screenplay by Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, Original story by Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter

I'd like to see IN BRUGES win, but it isn't terribly likely. I'd be down with MILK or WALL-E or HAPPY-GO-LUCKY won, but I think they'll probably give it to MILK as a consolation prize for not giving it one of the big prizes.

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 1/22/09 at 4:25pm

I was thrilled to see Marisa Tomei nominated, she is such an underrated actress and it seems that people expect her to prove herself after winning for her brilliant turn in MY COUSIN VINNY. Well, she has, this is her third nod and I'm so happy for her (it makes up for last year's snub for her work in BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU'RE DEAD).
I was sad that Jenny Lumet didn't get nominated for her screenplay for RACHEL GETTING MARRIED.
Overall, I was beyond happy with these nominations.