The 2009 Oscar Predictions Thread

[CapnHook]

Posted: 1/5/09 at 11:21pm

Oscar Nominations for the 2009 Academy Awards will be announced January 22. What are your predictions of the major categories? (As opposed to who you think should be nominated.)

Here's mine (as of Jan 5):

BEST PICTURE:
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
THE DARK KNIGHT
FROST/NIXON
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
WALL-E* (*alternate is MILK)

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Clint Eastwood, GRAN TURINO
Frank Langella, FROST/NIXON
Sean Penn, MILK
Brad Pitt, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Mickey Rourke, THE WRESTLER

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
Cate Blanchett, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Anne Hathaway, RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
Angelina Jolie, CHANGELING
Meryl Streep, DOUBT
Kate Winslet, REVOLUTIONARY ROAD

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Josh Brolin, MILK
Robert Downey Jr, TROPIC THUNDER
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, DOUBT
Heath Ledger, THE DARK KNIGHT
Dev Patel, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Penelope Cruz, VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA
Viola Davis, DOUBT
Taraji P. Henson, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Marisa Tomei, THE WRESTLER
Kate Winslet, THE READER

BEST DIRECTOR:
Danny Boyle, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
David Fincher, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Ron Howard, FROST/NIXON
Baz Luhrman, AUSTRALIA
Sam Mendes, REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
Christopher Nolan, THE DARK KNIGHT

[bschneid76]

Posted: 1/6/09 at 6:59am

Best Picture
Milk
The Reader
** Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Wall-E

Best Director
Gus Van Sant for Milk
** Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Stephen Daldrey for The Reader
Ron Howard for Frost/Nixon

Best Actor
Sean Penn in Milk
Brad Pitt in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
** Frank Langella in Frost/Nixon
Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler
Richard Jenkins in The Visitor

Best Actress
** Meryl Streep in Doubt
Kate Winslet in Revolutionary Road
Cate Blanchett in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Sally Hawkins in Happy-Go-Lucky
Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married

Best Supporting Actor
Phillip Seymour Hoffman in Doubt
James Franco in Milk
Josh Brolin in Milk
** Dev Patel in Slumdog Millionaire
Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams in Doubt
Viola Davis in Doubt
Taraji P Hensen in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Penelope Cruz in Vicky Christina Barcelona
** Kate Winslet in The Reader

** = Would want to win

[pli1018]

Posted: 1/6/09 at 1:50pm

BEST PICTURE:
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
MILK
FROST/NIXON
*SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
WALL-E

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Clint Eastwood, GRAN TORINO
Frank Langella, FROST/NIXON
Sean Penn, MILK
Brad Pitt, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
*Mickey Rourke, THE WRESTLER

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
Sally Hawkins, HAPPY-GO-LUCKY
*Anne Hathaway, RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
Angelina Jolie, CHANGELING
Meryl Streep, DOUBT
Kate Winslet, REVOLUTIONARY ROAD

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Josh Brolin, MILK
Robert Downey Jr, TROPIC THUNDER
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, DOUBT
*Heath Ledger, THE DARK KNIGHT
Dev Patel, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
*Penelope Cruz, VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA
Viola Davis, DOUBT
Amy Adams, DOUBT
Taraji P. Henson, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Kate Winslet, THE READER

BEST DIRECTOR:
*Danny Boyle, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
David Fincher, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Ron Howard, FROST/NIXON
Sam Mendes, REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
Christopher Nolan, THE DARK KNIGHT

*=Who will win
Updated On: 1/21/09 at 01:50 PM

[best12bars]

Posted: 1/6/09 at 2:09pm

I really liked your list, all in all, pli1018. Except I have a few different winners and one or two different nominees ...

BEST PICTURE:
* THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
THE DARK KNIGHT
MILK
FROST/NIXON
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Clint Eastwood, GRAN TORINO
Frank Langella, FROST/NIXON
* Sean Penn, MILK
Brad Pitt, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Mickey Rourke, THE WRESTLER

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
Sally Hawkins, HAPPY-GO-LUCKY
Anne Hathaway, RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
Angelina Jolie, CHANGELING
* Meryl Streep, DOUBT
Kate Winslet, REVOLUTIONARY ROAD

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Josh Brolin, MILK
Robert Downey Jr, TROPIC THUNDER
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, DOUBT
*Heath Ledger, THE DARK KNIGHT
Dev Patel, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
*Penelope Cruz, VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA
Viola Davis, DOUBT
Amy Adams, DOUBT
Taraji P. Henson, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Kate Winslet, THE READER

BEST DIRECTOR:
Danny Boyle, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
* David Fincher, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Ron Howard, FROST/NIXON
Sam Mendes, REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
Christopher Nolan, THE DARK KNIGHT

*=Who will win (my early predictions)

[cubanpab]

Posted: 1/6/09 at 4:51pm

Besty - It looks like I agree with you almost 100% with the exception of 1 or 2 people. So I will add some commentary.

BEST PICTURE:
* SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
** THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
MILK
FROST/NIXON
THE DARK KNIGHT or WALL-E

Thoughts: I dont think Wall-E has a chance of sneaking in here, so I'm putting my money on The Dark Knight. But I also wouldn't be shocked if we got a huge surprise in this category... like say "The Wrestler". Which I would love.


BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
* Sean Penn, MILK
Frank Langella, FROST/NIXON
** Mickey Rourke, THE WRESTLER
Brad Pitt, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Clint Eastwood, GRAN TORINO or Richard Jenkins, THE VISITOR

Thoughts: It's Penn's to lose, and he is certainly deserving of the award. My personal choice would be Rourke, but I dont think he can win it.


BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
* ** Meryl Streep, DOUBT
Anne Hathaway, RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
Kate Winslet, REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
Angelina Jolie, CHANGELING
Sally Hawkins, HAPPY-GO-LUCKY

Thoughts: I love Kate Winslet. I think she deserves 10 oscars by now. But every year someone else manages to steal her thunder. I think it's Meryl's year (again after so long). If anyone is going to spoil Meryl's night it will be Anne Hathaway.


BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
* **Heath Ledger, THE DARK KNIGHT
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, DOUBT
Josh Brolin, MILK
Dev Patel, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
Robert Downey Jr, TROPIC THUNDER (ugh)

Thoughts: This is Heaths. Period.


BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
** Viola Davis, DOUBT
** Taraji P. Henson, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
* Penelope Cruz, VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA
Amy Adams, DOUBT
Kate Winslet, THE READER

Thoughts: Penelope was great, and will likely win. My personal choice would be to see Viola or Taraji steal it. I think they both did amazing work in far superior films. I love Taraji especially. We might be in for a surprise in this category though: Marisa Tomei for "The Wrestler".


BEST DIRECTOR:
* Danny Boyle, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
** David Fincher, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Ron Howard, FROST/NIXON
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Christopher Nolan, THE DARK KNIGHT

Thoughts: If TDK fails to get nominated for Best Picture I think Nolan will score a nomination for directing. My preference would be Fincher, who I think does amazing work and is long overdue.

* = Will win
** = I want to win

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 1/6/09 at 5:45pm

I agree with just about everyone on most things. I do think that Winslet will get an Oscar for REV ROAD, because she is Winslet and I really do believe that people feel she should have one by now, if not she will get it for THE READER. To me Meryl is the one deserving of the award.
A couple of hopes: Richard Jenkins getting a nod for his brilliant performance in THE VISITOR and Marisa Tomei NOT getting snubbed for THE WRESTLER. Also, anything but THE DARK KNIGHT getting the fifth slot for Best Picture.

[CapnHook]

Posted: 1/7/09 at 10:05pm

I, too, hope Richard Jenkins makes it for THE VISITOR. I think it'll get a screenwriting award, too.

I wish that the overlooked MISS PETTIGREW LIVES FOR A DAY would get some buzz. I don't think it was better than some of the other recent films we've had, but I just wish they would talk about it. I felt the same way a year or two ago about WAITRESS.

[tazber]

Posted: 1/21/09 at 11:35am

I agree with everyone too. It's not exactly a tough year to call.

The two winners I'm willing to call are Winslet for Rev Road, and Ledger for TDK.

[Roscoe]

Posted: 1/21/09 at 11:39am

BEST PICTURE:
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
THE DARK KNIGHT
FROST/NIXON
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
MILK

Probable winner: SLUMDOG, but BENJAMIN BUTTON could seduce the Senior crowd. SLUMDOG is an easy piece of feel-good banality, after last year's easy piece of feel-bad banality, and I think it will triumph.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Clint Eastwood, GRAN TURINO
Frank Langella, FROST/NIXON
Sean Penn, MILK
Brad Pitt, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Mickey Rourke, THE WRESTLER

Probable winner: Mickey Rourke, but they may toss it to Clint, I mean, who knows what goes on these minds?

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
Cate Blanchett, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Anne Hathaway, RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
Sally Hawkins, HAPPY-GO-LUCKY
Meryl Streep, DOUBT
Kate Winslet, REVOLUTIONARY ROAD

Probable winner: Kate Winslet. She's overdue, but they may toss it to Streep, who knows what goes on in those minds? I'd like to see Hawkins win, but she won't.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Josh Brolin, MILK
Robert Downey Jr, TROPIC THUNDER
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, DOUBT
Heath Ledger, THE DARK KNIGHT
Dev Patel, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

Probable winner: Ledger. The only problem is that Ledger should be nominated in the Best ACTOR category, where he belongs.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Penelope Cruz, VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA
Viola Davis, DOUBT
Taraji P. Henson, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Marisa Tomei, THE WRESTLER
Kate Winslet, THE READER

Probable winner, Penelope Cruz, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Ms. Winslet get it.

BEST DIRECTOR:
Danny Boyle, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
David Fincher, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Ron Howard, FROST/NIXON
Sam Mendes, REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
Christopher Nolan, THE DARK KNIGHT

Probable winner: I think Danny Boyle will win, and why not.

[MTVMANN]

Posted: 1/21/09 at 1:32pm

Did they do away with the animated feature film category?

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 1/21/09 at 1:36pm

Nope.

[MTVMANN]

Posted: 1/21/09 at 4:49pm

Interesting.

Also, to all that said that Cate Blanchett is going to get a nomination I would be very suprised to see that.
If monemtum means anything she didn't get a Golden Globe or SAG nomination...plus after last years double nomination the Academy pass on her.

My hope is that David Kross will be recognized for "The Reader" in the Best Supporting Actor category.

[AC126748]

Posted: 1/21/09 at 9:43pm

BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
I would love to see Benjamin Button win, but I think Slumdog is unstoppable. It seems that all the people who matter have appointed it the film of the year, and I don't see that changing.

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Again, I think it will come down to Slumdog vs. Button. People who are enraptured--or distracted--by the latter's special effects probably didn't recognize how well-directed the film is. Boyle will take the award.

BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
I'm going with Rourke. Penn peaked early and has already won, while Pitt's campaign doesn't seem to have ever really taken off.

BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Sally Hawkins should win. Like, unquestionably. But it will go to Winslet.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr, Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Ledger, duh. Although Brolin and Downey are leagues more deserving, in my humble opinion. One really cannot argue with flash and death, though.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader
I really cannot imagine Winslet winning both Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress in the same year. Since I think she'll win the former, I'm predicting Cruz--and deservedly so.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Happy-Go-Lucky (Mike Leigh)
Milk (Dustin Lance Black)
Rachel Getting Married (Jenny Lumet)
Vicky Cristina Barcelona (Woody Allen)
Wall-E (Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon and Pete Docter)
The Academy will probably use this category to reward Milk.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Eric Roth and Robin Swicord)
Doubt (John Patrick Shanley)
Frost/Nixon (Peter Morgan)
The Reader (David Hare)
Slumdog Millionaire (Simon Beaufoy)
Slumdog will most likely win this category, as well.

[MTVMANN]

Posted: 1/21/09 at 10:05pm

I don't want Heath Ledger to win. I hated the movie and would rather see the award go to someone alive!

[CapnHook]

Posted: 1/22/09 at 12:06am

My final predix:

BEST PICTURE:
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
THE DARK KNIGHT
FROST/NIXON
MILK* (*alternate is WALL-E)
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Clint Eastwood, GRAN TURINO
Frank Langella, FROST/NIXON
Sean Penn, MILK
Brad Pitt, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Mickey Rourke, THE WRESTLER

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
Cate Blanchett, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Anne Hathaway, RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
Angelina Jolie, CHANGELING
Meryl Streep, DOUBT
Kate Winslet, REVOLUTIONARY ROAD

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Josh Brolin, MILK
Robert Downey Jr, TROPIC THUNDER
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, DOUBT
Heath Ledger, THE DARK KNIGHT
Dev Patel, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Penelope Cruz, VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA
Viola Davis, DOUBT
Taraji P. Henson, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Marisa Tomei, THE WRESTLER
Kate Winslet, THE READER

BEST DIRECTOR:
Danny Boyle, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
Stephen Daldry, THE READER
David Fincher, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Ron Howard, FROST/NIXON
Christopher Nolan, THE DARK KNIGHT

[Jane2]

Posted: 1/22/09 at 12:14am

I'm surprised no one has Doubt on their list for best films. I've only seen ten of the movies this year and that's my favorite so far.

[bschneid76]

Posted: 1/22/09 at 6:56am

Would love to see James Franco sneak in there, however, I think it will be unlikely. I do hope Richard Jenkins or Leonard DiCaprio sneak in as well. I kind of want a few surprises, but that usually doesn't happen. Would love to see Wall-E take a best picture nomination too.

[tazber]

Posted: 1/22/09 at 8:18am

10 minutes to go!


If you're at work you can watch live on cnn.com

[best12bars]

Posted: 1/22/09 at 8:39am

Yay for both Doubt supporting actresses!

Updated On: 1/22/09 at 08:39 AM

[best12bars]

Posted: 1/22/09 at 8:43am

No Dark Knight!

[tazber]

Posted: 1/22/09 at 8:44am

The Reader

Richard Jenkins

Melissa Leo

OMG!!!!!!!!!1

[tazber]

Posted: 1/22/09 at 8:45am

Seriously, when he announced Kate Winslet for The Reader, I thought he made a mistake and was supposed to say Rev Road

[best12bars]

Posted: 1/22/09 at 8:45am

No Leonardo Di Caprio. Jenkins got that slot.

And no Sally whatsername. Melissa Leo got her slot.

[StageManager2]

Posted: 1/22/09 at 8:46am

Yay for Michael Shannon in REVOLUTIONARY ROAD! He was the best thing in that movie. I'm not surprised Kate didn't get a nom for that. I thought her performance (and Leo's) was a bit contrived.

[BustopherPhantom]

Posted: 1/22/09 at 8:46am

The Academy to General America, concerning 'The Dark Knight' and 'Wall-E': F//K OFF!!! We're going with THE READER!!! The Holocaust Movie!!! And the mediocre Holocaust Movie!!! YAY FOR US!!!

And once again: F//K OFF, AMERICA!!!

Updated On: 1/22/09 at 08:46 AM