I believe Chita's show counts as a Special Event instead of a Musical so she would not be eligible for a nomination. I agree that LaChanze, LuPone, and Friedman have a place in this category already. Perhaps Benanti and O'Hara will follow, I dont know. I don't believe it will come down to Friedman and LuPone, instead in my opinion, it will be between LuPone and LaChanze. I think LuPone has the biggest chance to win because she completely re-invented Mrs.Lovett which many people didn't expect due to her more traditional performance of the role in the concert versions.
"Souvenir" is considered a play with music, therefore, Judy Kaye will indeed be nominated, but in the Best Actress in a play category and will most likely win.
"Some people can thrive and bloom living life in a living room, that's perfect for some people of one hundred and five. But I at least gotta try, when I think of all the sights that I gotta see, all the places I gotta play, all the things that I gotta be at"