Any early Tony Predictions?- Page 3

[Wilmingtom]

Posted: 11/9/13 at 3:26pm

Should we add Mary Bridget Davies to the conversation?

[Broadwaystar2]

Posted: 11/9/13 at 3:44pm

She is in the conversation already In an earlier post. She gave a stellar performance!!

[CYAPollyanna]

Posted: 11/9/13 at 4:13pm

Who can really say how it will all shake out at this point? Right now, there are 12 new musicals with 2 other possible transfers making it one of the most ridiculously competitive seasons in a long time.

[mjohnson2]

Posted: 11/10/13 at 1:05am

There are a ridiculous amount of shows this year. Too many in fact. I'm hoping that either If/Then or The Bridges of Madison County wins, and as long as Les Miz doesn't win for revival I'm good. Is Alan Cummings eligible to win a Tony again even though he's done the exact same role before? I could also see Bullets Over Broadway, Big Fish, Gentleman's Guide, and Beautiful being nominated, with a possible upset from First Date, Aladdin, Rocky, or Hedwig (would that be a revival?) Glass Menagerie has revival of a play cornered for sure, though.

[FutureDirector]

Posted: 11/10/13 at 2:16am

While Mary Bridget Davis gives an terrific performance, she doesn't really have enough meaty material to work with to earn a tony. Had the show been more of a soul bearing retrospective into joplins life and less of a concert it would be a completely different story.

On another note, Joplin, as well as After Midnight and Beautiful are already at a disadvantage in tony races in the sense that voters look at them as easy money makes for producers and not shows that take a risk or do what they are doing better than we have seen it before. People are tired of producers trying to play to baby boomers and tourists in order to make a quick buck.

[After Eight]

Posted: 11/10/13 at 6:42am

"Fun Home is probably the most groundbreaking musical NYC has seen in years and a for sure sweep if it transfers"

Ground-poisoning is more apt. Which is why it will certainly sweep everything in sight.

[AlfredColo]

Posted: 12/7/13 at 9:33pm

so besides after midnight and gentleman's what else will get a tony nom

[PTOPhan]

Posted: 12/7/13 at 11:18pm

If/Then for best musical. LaChanze (?--spelling) for best featured actress (in a musical). Best Book should be If/Then as well. I saw it on 12/4, and suspect they've made changes -- it's not particularly confusing now, although I'd like to have seen Elizabeth wear a different scarf or hat or something to signify that she's Liz now or Beth now. The score was incredible -- especially "What the F---" (don't know how they'll sing that one for the Tony award broadcast, :-})and the song where the ensemble sings about fear, regret, and sadness in one searing number. (I don't want to say more about that scene because it would be a spoiler). I've been WAAAAYYY wrong about nominations and wins before -- when I saw "Glory," I said it would win the Oscar for best picture, and I don't think it was nominated. Nonetheless, I'm going out on a limb at this early stage and saying that If/Then will get at least a nomination for a Tony, and Idina Menzel for best female lead in a musical.

[Wilmingtom]

Posted: 12/7/13 at 11:20pm

Jefferson Mayes, shoo-in.

[RumTumJM]

Posted: 12/9/13 at 8:44am

If/Then will be the big winner (6-8 wins), including Best Musical, Lead Actress for Idina, Best Book & Best Original Score. Bullets Over Broadway will get 3-4 wins.

[henrikegerman]

Posted: 12/9/13 at 9:15am

I would love to see Samuel Barnett at least nominated for 12th Night/Richard III. Likely as featured, although Viola and arguably Elizabeth are leads.

[JBroadway]

Posted: 12/9/13 at 12:19pm

I was not a big fan of Beautiful, honestly. But I do think it will be nominated for best musical. I don't think it SHOULD be, but I think it will. Almost everyone I know who has seen it has loved and it seems to be very popular.

[Jay94]

Posted: 1/11/14 at 2:00am

What plays will be in contention? Are there any early favourites?

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 1/11/14 at 2:40am

Solely based on it's creative team and cast, THE REALISTIC JONESES seems to be the one to look forward to.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 1/11/14 at 8:24am

Since Big Fish & First Date both recently closed, it's hard to tell if they'll really end up being contenders at all, obviously there's still some shows that yet to open, like Bullets or Rocky, where we should at least see what the response is like first before officially taking them into consideration. So in any case, here are my predictions as of now...

Best Musical:
Aladdin
Beautiful
The Bridges of Madison County
If/Then

Best Play:
All the Way-Robert Schenkkan
Mothers & Sons-Terrence McNally
Realistic Joneses-Will Eno
The Velocity of Autumn-Eric Coble

Best Revival of a Musical:
Cabaret
Hedwig & the Angry Inch
Les Miserables
Violet

Best Revival of a Play:
The Glass Menagerie
Of Mice & Men
A Raisin in the Sun
Twelfth Night

Best Lead Actor in a Musical:
Neil Patrick Harris-Hedwig & the Angry Inch
Adam Jacobs-Aladdin
Ramin Karimloo-Les Miserables
Jefferson Mays-A Gentleman's Guide to Love & Murder
Steven Pasquale-The Bridges of Madison County

Best Lead Actress in a Musical:
Mary Bridget Davis-A Night With Janis Joplin
Sutton Foster-Violet
Idina Menzel-If/Then
Jessie Mueller-Beautiful
Keli O'Hara-The Bridges of Madison County

Best Lead Actor in a Play:
Sebastian Arcelus-A Time to Kill
Bryan Cranston-All the Way
Michael C. Hall-Realistic Joneses
Zachary Quinto-The Glass Menagerie
Mark Rylance-Twelfth Night

Best Lead Actress in a Play:
Toni Collette-Realistic Joneses
Tyne Daly-Mothers & Sons
Cherry Jones-The Glass Menagerie
Estelle Parsons-The Velocity of Autumn
Rachel Weisz-Betrayal

Best Featured Actor in a Musical:
Danny Burstein-Cabaret
Hunter Foster-The Bridges of Madison County
James Monroe Iglehart-Aladdin
Anthony Rapp-If/Then
Will Swenson-Les Miserables

Best Featured Actress in a Musical:
Nikki M. James-Les Miserables
LaChanze-If/Then
Anika Larsen-Beautiful
Caissie Levy-Les Miserables
Karen Ziemba-Bullets Over Broadway

Best Featured Actor in a Play:
Brian Cross-The Snow Geese
Stephen Fry-Twelfth Night
Michael McKean-All the Way
Bobby Steggert-Mothers & Sons
Stephen Tyrone Williams-A Rasin in the Sun

Best Featured Actress in a Play:
Suzanne Bertish-Machinal
Victoria Clark-The Snow Geese
Celia Keenan-Bolger-The Glass Menagerie
Sophie Okonedo-A Rasin in the Sun
Marisa Tomei-Realistic Joneses

Best Director of a Musical:
Laurence Connor & James Powell-Les Miserables
Michael Greif-If/Then
Casey Nicholaw-Aladdin
Bartlett Sher-The Bridges of Madison County

Best Director of a Play:
Tim Carroll-Twelfth Night
Sam Gold-Realistic Joneses
Bill Rauch-All the Way
John Tiffany-The Glass Menagerie

Best Original Score:
The Bridges of Madison County-Music & Lyrics By Jason Robert Brown
A Gentleman's Guide to Love & Murder-Music By Steven Lutvak, Lyrics By Robert L. Freedman & Steven Lutvak
If/Then-Music By Tom Kitt, Lyrics By Brian Yorky
Rocky the Musical-Music By Stephen Flaherty, Lyrics By Lynn Ahrens

Best Book of a Musical:
Beautiful-Douglas McGrath
The Bridges of Madison County-Marsha Norman
A Gentleman's Guide to Love & Murder-Robert L. Freedman
If/Then-Brian Yorky

Best Choreography:
Spencer Liff-Hedwig & the Angry Inch
Casey Nicholaw-Aladdin
Josh Prince-Beautiful
Susan Stroman-Bullets Over Broadway

[mschwager]

Posted: 1/11/14 at 10:33am

I think you are showing Aladdin a little too much love. It's a really tough year for musicals, and based on its out of town reviews...I think we might see it get very little Tony love

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 1/11/14 at 11:03am

If you go to the Aladdin Reviews message board, you'll see that the creative team have been and still are improving the show. The most that I am rooting for Aladdin to get at the Tonys is at least a Featured Actor nomination for James Monroe Iglehart as Genie, I've heard clips of him in the role on YouTube and he is absolutely a scene stealer!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsWfQ-VvO1I

[broadwaydevil]

Posted: 1/11/14 at 11:18am

I don't think you're showing After Midnight or A Gentleman's Guide anywhere near enough love. Both were critical darlings and it's obviously too early to tell but I'd say both have a far greater shot at scoring best musical nominations than Aladdin.

[Littleshopofcarrie]

Posted: 1/11/14 at 11:26am

Best Musical:
Bullets Over Broadway
If/Then
Beautiful
Bridges of Madison County

Best Leading Actor in Musical:
Zach Levi
NPH
Ramin Karimloo
Zach Braff*

Best Leading Actress in a Musical:
Marin Mazzie*
Sutton Foster
Idina Menzel
Jesse Mueller

Best Musical Revival:
Cabaret
Violet
Les Mis
Hedwig


*Would these be leading or featured? Updated On: 1/11/14 at 11:26 AM

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 1/11/14 at 11:28am

I'm not so sure about After Midnight getting a nomination for Best Musical because it's really a musical revue, sure Ain't Misbehavin' won, but there was still controversy over Contact winning Best Musical in 2000. But who knows, maybe it will have a chance, we'll just have to wait & see the response of the other shows opening this spring.

[BroadwayNYC2]

Posted: 1/11/14 at 12:07pm

Contact and After Midnight are completely different cases. Contact had no live singing, After Midnight does. Revues are absolutely musicals.

[adamgreer]

Posted: 1/11/14 at 12:09pm

Any prediction that doesn't include Jefferson Mays as the likely winner (let alone a nominee!) for Gentleman's Guide... can be immediately discounted as not having a clue.

[Kad]

Posted: 1/11/14 at 12:20pm

"Sebastian Arcelus-A Time to Kill"

Huh? Over Denzel Washington in Raisin? Seriously?

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 1/11/14 at 12:36pm

Alright, so here's an updated predictions list, I have and will continue to make revisions once we all hear the response of whichever new production opens:

Best Musical:
After Midnight
Beautiful
The Bridges of Madison County
If/Then

Best Play:
All the Way-Robert Schenkkan
Mothers & Sons-Terrence McNally
Realistic Joneses-Will Eno
The Velocity of Autumn-Eric Coble

Best Revival of a Musical:
Cabaret
Hedwig & the Angry Inch
Les Miserables
Violet

Best Revival of a Play:
The Glass Menagerie
Of Mice & Men
A Raisin in the Sun
Twelfth Night

Best Lead Actor in a Musical:
Norbert Leo Butz-Big Fish
Neil Patrick Harris-Hedwig & the Angry Inch
Ramin Karimloo-Les Miserables
Jefferson Mays-A Gentleman's Guide to Love & Murder
Steven Pasquale-The Bridges of Madison County

Best Lead Actress in a Musical:
Mary Bridget Davis-A Night With Janis Joplin
Sutton Foster-Violet
Idina Menzel-If/Then
Jessie Mueller-Beautiful
Keli O'Hara-The Bridges of Madison County

Best Lead Actor in a Play:
Bryan Cranston-All the Way
Michael C. Hall-Realistic Joneses
Zachary Quinto-The Glass Menagerie
Mark Rylance-Twelfth Night
Denzel Washington-A Rasin in the Sun

Best Lead Actress in a Play:
Toni Collette-Realistic Joneses
Tyne Daly-Mothers & Sons
Cherry Jones-The Glass Menagerie
Estelle Parsons-The Velocity of Autumn
Rachel Weisz-Betrayal

Best Featured Actor in a Musical:
Danny Burstein-Cabaret
Hunter Foster-The Bridges of Madison County
James Monroe Iglehart-Aladdin
Anthony Rapp-If/Then
Will Swenson-Les Miserables

Best Featured Actress in a Musical:
Nikki M. James-Les Miserables
LaChanze-If/Then
Anika Larsen-Beautiful
Caissie Levy-Les Miserables
Karen Ziemba-Bullets Over Broadway

Best Featured Actor in a Play:
Brian Cross-The Snow Geese
Stephen Fry-Twelfth Night
Michael McKean-All the Way
Bobby Steggert-Mothers & Sons
Stephen Tyrone Williams-A Rasin in the Sun

Best Featured Actress in a Play:
Suzanne Bertish-Machinal
Victoria Clark-The Snow Geese
Celia Keenan-Bolger-The Glass Menagerie
Sophie Okonedo-A Rasin in the Sun
Marisa Tomei-Realistic Joneses

Best Director of a Musical:
Warren Carlyle-After Midnight
Laurence Connor & James Powell-Les Miserables
Michael Greif-If/Then
Bartlett Sher-The Bridges of Madison County

Best Director of a Play:
Tim Carroll-Twelfth Night
Sam Gold-Realistic Joneses
Bill Rauch-All the Way
John Tiffany-The Glass Menagerie

Best Original Score:
The Bridges of Madison County-Music & Lyrics By Jason Robert Brown
A Gentleman's Guide to Love & Murder-Music By Steven Lutvak, Lyrics By Robert L. Freedman & Steven Lutvak
If/Then-Music By Tom Kitt, Lyrics By Brian Yorky
Rocky-Music By Stephen Flaherty, Lyrics By Lynn Ahrens

Best Book of a Musical:
Beautiful-Douglas McGrath
The Bridges of Madison County-Marsha Norman
A Gentleman's Guide to Love & Murder-Robert L. Freedman
If/Then-Brian Yorky

Best Choreography:
Warren Carlyle-After Midnight
Spencer Liff-Hedwig & the Angry Inch
Casey Nicholaw-Aladdin
Josh Prince-Beautiful

Best Orchestrations:
Jason Robert Brown-The Bridges of Madison County
Christopher Jahnke & Stephen Metcalfe-Les Miserables
Steve Sidwell-Beautiful
Michael Starobin-If/Then Updated On: 1/11/14 at 12:36 PM

[jnb9872]

Posted: 1/11/14 at 12:49pm

Even sight unseen, anyone not predicting a nomination for Woody Allen for Book of a Musical is making a huge assumption about how *unsuccessful* they think BULLETS will be.

When you're Woody Allen, writing your first musical, you're getting a nomination until proven otherwise. Them's my two cents.

Otherwise, it's far too early for anything. Talk to me in April.