Harvey Fierstein may have been the genuine frontrunner for HAIRSPRAY, but he was anything but a lock.
Many people (including myself) were really hoping for Antonio Banderas that year, and he offered stiff competition. The both tied for the Drama Desk Award. So no, Fierstein was definitely NOT a lock that year.
Nor was Idina Menzel for WICKED. For many, her win was actually a bit of an upset. Of all the brilliant female leading performances that year, her's received the most tepid reviews. If I recall, it was widely believed that Tonya Pinkins would take home the award. She deserved it.
"If you are going to do something, do it well. And leave something witchy."
-Charlie Manson