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Besides Ripley's Tony win last year, what were some other Tony 'sure thing'

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#6

Besides Ripley's Tony win last year, what were some other Tony 'sure thing'

Posted: 4/22/10 at 4:29pm

Mary Louise Parker in PROOF
Zoe Caldwell in MASTER CLASS
Audra--any time she's won
Patti and Mandy in EVITA
Glenn Close in SUNSET BLVD--granted, she was only up against one other person
Geoffrey Rush in EXIT THE KING
Frank Langella in FROST/NIXON
"You travel alone because other people are only there to remind you how much that hook hurts that we all bit down on. Wait for that one day we can bite free and get back out there in space where we belong, sail back over water, over skies, into space, the hook finally out of our mouths and we wander back out there in space spawning to other planets never to return hurrah to earth and we'll look back and can't even see these lives here anymore. Only the taste of blood to remind us we ever existed. The earth is small. We're gone. We're dead. We're safe." -John Guare, Landscape of the Body
#13

Besides Ripley's Tony win last year, what were some other Tony 'sure thing'

Posted: 4/22/10 at 5:51pm

I would not personally say that In the Heights as Best Musical as a "sure thing." Passing Strange actually came out on top of the NY Times pre-Tony discussion with a small number of Tony voters, and some thought that Passing Strange might pull off an upset.

Besides the ones already mentioned, I would say that Laura Benanti for Gypsy was a lock.
"What was the name of that cheese that I like?" "you can't run away forever...but there's nothing wrong with getting a good head start" "well I hope and I pray, that maybe someday, you'll walk in the room with my heart"
#14

Besides Ripley's Tony win last year, what were some other Tony 'sure thing'

Posted: 4/22/10 at 7:42pm

There have been a ton...

Best Play:
GOD OF CARNAGE
AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY
THE COAST OF UTOPIA
THE HISTORY BOYS
DOUBT
TAKE ME OUT
THE GOAT
PROOF

Best Musical:
BILLY ELLIOT
IN THE HEIGHTS
SPRING AWAKENING
JERSEY BOYS
SPAMALOT
HAIRSPRAY
THE PRODUCERS

Book of a Musical:
THE DROWSY CHAPERONE
...SPELLING BEE
HAIRSPRAY
URINETOWN
THE PRODUCERS

Best Score:
SPRING AWAKENING
THE LIGHT IN THE PIAZZA
HAIRSPRAY
URINETOWN
THE PRODUCERS

Best Revival of a Play:
THE NORMAN CONQUESTS
BOEING-BOEING
JOURNEY'S END
AWAKE AND SING!
LONG DAY'S JOURNEY...

Best Revival of a Musical:
HAIR
SOUTH PACIFIC
COMPANY
NINE
42ND STREET

Best Actress/Musical:
Patti LuPone, GYPSY
Christine Ebersole, GREY GARDENS
Victoria Clark, THE LIGHT IN THE PIAZZA
Sutton Foster, THOROUGHLY MODERN MILLIE


Best Actor/Musical:
John Lloyd Young, JERSEY BOYS
Norbert Leo Butz, DIRTY ROTTEN SCOUNDRELS
Hugh Jackman, THE BOY FROM OZ
John Lithgow, SWEET SMELL OF SUCCESS
Nathan Lane, THE PRODUCERS

Best Actor/Play:
Geoffrey Rush, EXIT THE KING
Frank Langella, FROST/NIXON
Richard Griffiths, THE HISTORY BOYS
Jefferson Mays, I AM MY OWN WIFE
Brian Dennehy, LONG DAY'S JOURNEY...


Best Actress/Play:
Julie White, THE LITTLE DOG LAUGHED
Cynthia Nixon, RABBIT HOLE
Cherry Jones, DOUBT
Vanessa Redgrave, LONG DAY'S JOURNEY...
Mary-Louise Parker, PROOF

Best Feat. Actor/Play:
Roger Robinson, JOE TURNER...
Ian McDiarmid, FAITH HEALER
Brian F. O'Byrne, FROZEN
Denis O'Hare, TAKE ME OUT

Best Feat. Actress/Play:
Angela Lansbury, BLITE SPIRIT
Frances de la Tour, THE HISTORY BOYS
Adriane Lenox, DOUBT
Audra McDonald, A RAISIN IN THE SUN

Best Feat. Actor/Musical:
John Gallagher, Jr., SPRING AWAKENING
Dan Fodler, ...SPELLING BEE
Dick Latessa, HAIRSPRAY
Shuler Hensley, OKLAHOMA!
Gary Beach, THE PRODUCERS

Best Feat. Actress/Musical:
Katen Olivo, WEST SIDE STORY
Laura Benanti, GYPSY
Mary Louise Wilson, GREY GARDENS
Beth Leavel, THE DROWSY CHAPERONE
Sara Ramirez, SPAMALOT
Jane Krakowski, NINE
Harriet Harris, THOROUGHLY MODERN MILLIE
Cady Huffman, THE PRODUCERS

Best Direction/Play:
Jack O'Brien, THE COAST OF UTOPIA
Nicholas Hytner, THE HISTORY BOYS
Doug Hughes, DOUBT
Jack O'Brien, HENRY IV

Best Direction/Musical:
Stephen Daldry, BILLY ELLIOT
Bartlett Sher, SOUTH PACIFIC
Michael Mayer, SPRING AWAKENING
John Doyle, SWEENEY TODD
Joe Mantello, ASSASSINS
Jack O'Brien, HAIRSPRAY
Susan Stroman, THE PRODUCERS

Best Choreography:
Peter Darling, BILLY ELLIOT
Kathleen Marshall, WONDERFUL TOWN
Twyla Tharp, MOVIN' OUT
Rob Ashford, THOROUGHLY MODERN MILLIE
Susan Stroman, THE PRODUCERS
"If you are going to do something, do it well. And leave something witchy." -Charlie Manson
#16

Besides Ripley's Tony win last year, what were some other Tony 'sure thing'

Posted: 4/22/10 at 8:21pm

As far as I can recall, there was no doubt in my mind that Olivo and Fogler would win. Personally, I wanted Matthew Morrison to win, but it was painfully clear that Fogler had it in the bag.
"If you are going to do something, do it well. And leave something witchy." -Charlie Manson
#17

Besides Ripley's Tony win last year, what were some other Tony 'sure thing'

Posted: 4/22/10 at 8:54pm

I wouldn't consider Dennehy a lock for Long Day's Journey.... Eddie Izzard took the Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle Awards that year and I think was favored to win the Tony by many.
"You travel alone because other people are only there to remind you how much that hook hurts that we all bit down on. Wait for that one day we can bite free and get back out there in space where we belong, sail back over water, over skies, into space, the hook finally out of our mouths and we wander back out there in space spawning to other planets never to return hurrah to earth and we'll look back and can't even see these lives here anymore. Only the taste of blood to remind us we ever existed. The earth is small. We're gone. We're dead. We're safe." -John Guare, Landscape of the Body
#22

Besides Ripley's Tony win last year, what were some other Tony 'sure thing'

Posted: 4/23/10 at 12:34am

As far as I can recall, there was no doubt in my mind that Olivo and Fogler would win.

um, but that still doesn't make them locks. That just means that you really thought they were going to win. There was no doubt in my mind that Patti LuPone was going to win a Tony for Sweeney Todd, but that didn't happen.

I would love to see the breakdown of votes for the Tonys, to see how wide margins actually have been. For example, there were enough people saying that Kelli O'Hara might beat Patti in 2008, and I'm genuinely curious as to what percentage of the vote she got.
When I see the phrase "the ____ estate", I imagine a vast mansion in the country full of monocled men and high-collared women receiving letters about productions across the country and doing spit-takes at whatever they contain. -Kad
#23

Besides Ripley's Tony win last year, what were some other Tony 'sure thing'

Posted: 4/23/10 at 4:07am

I'll be honest, I find it hard to say that any Tony Award is a "sure thing." Given the extreme fluctuation of "sure things" winning and/or losing in the past, it seems that the Tonys are perhaps the most fickle of the major awards shows. Even with the aforementioned Ripley and LuPone wins, who can say that they were 100% sure that the award was theirs to win? Note the important difference between "sure thing" wins and "sure thing" deserve-to-wins.

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