Best Leading Actress in a Musical this season???

So far, I think the strongest contender is Patina, to be honest.

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Isn't Kerry's character only in act two?

Yes, she's only in act two. She'd be featured, for sure. She's great though.

Janet is fantastic in Wonderland, but so is Patina in Sister Act. Sutton may surprise us.

I would think that Rosemary would be considered leading. She is the lead female character. A character like Hedy Larue would be featured.

Even as a WONDERLAND fan... I feel like Janet will only get nominated if the show has some sort of success, or if she surprises me back in Tampa. She was too overshadowed by the other performances, so hopefully a year later she have a "star in the making" performance.

Spider-man might put Jennifer Damiano as Leading because as the OP said there's not as many options for it, as well as it appears to be the Leading female role. Featured Actress is going to have a lot of options!

Unless her role is a complete dud, Donna is the clear favorite to pick up the award this year. I would be shocked if she didn't win just based on the option pool. Patina is probably second in line.

They will certainly petition Damiano to be leading.

My thoughts:

Patina Miller - LOCK. She got raves for her performance in the West End and is definitely being positioned as the new "it" girl/star-to-be of 2011 (like Sutton Foster in 2002, or Marissa Jaret Winokur in 2003). Even if Sister Act completely tanks on Broadway, I can't see her being ignored.

Sutton Foster - LOCK. She's been nominated in this category all 4 times she's been eligible and there's no reason to think thi year will be any different. We already know the show is a great showcase for any musical comedy actress and if they'll nominate for crap like Little Women, they'll certainly nominate her for Anything Goes.

Donna Murphy - LOCK. Like Foster, the Tony voters clearly love her. From the synopsis, the shows sounds like a real tour de force for her (comedy and drama, playing a character at several stages of life, etc.) so even if everything else sucks I think she'll make the nomination list.


The other two nominees will depend on category placement (for Damiano and Hemingway) and how well their shows do.

Janet Dacal - POSSIBLE. I think it's really going to depend on how Wonderland is received. If the reviews are mixed, but positive for her, she could get in just due to lack of competition. If it's a total flop, though, she could likely be shut-out.

Sherie Rene Scott - POSSIBLE. She didn't get great personal reviews (and, of course, neither did her show) AND her show will have been closed for almost 4 months by the time nominations come out, but she's been nominated before and seems to be well-liked in the industry and that may just be enough if they need another name to fill out the category.

Rose Hemingway - POSSIBLE. Rosemary could go either way in terms of lead or featured. I could see them petitioning to have her as a lead just because the odds are better in this category, but there's no predicting where the committee will decide to put her. It's not a terribly show-y role (no big show-stopping song, for instance) but if the production is a hit she could very well be thrown in there.

Jennifer Damiano - POSSIBLE. It's really more of a featured role, at least now - who knows what they might add for her by February, if anything. But, like Hemingway, she does have the largest female role in her show AND, unlike Hemingway, gets a nice solo in act two to show her off. Once again, I think it depends on how the show is received - but I could see her being a filler nomination like Erin Dilly in 2005.

Does anyone know about the size of Nikki M. James' role in The Book of Mormon? If it's an almost-lead like Rosemary or Mary Jane she could be in the running for this as well.

I think Sherie has a shot, and Laura Benantin might get her 2nd Tony for supporting.

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I'm drawing a blank. What show is Donna Murphy going to be in???

Based on this list, and considering that we already know what Sherie has to offer, and, essentially, Patina as well, I say this comes down to how good Sutton is. If she's fantastic, it throws her back in the race, but for right now, I agree that Patina has the best bet.

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Sutton Foster - LOCK. She's been nominated in this category all 4 times she's been eligible and there's no reason to think thi year will be any different. We already know the show is a great showcase for any musical comedy actress and if they'll nominate for crap like Little Women, they'll certainly nominate her for Anything Goes.

Keep in mind that 3 of the 4 years Sutton was nominated (Millie, Little Women, Drowsy), the list of eligible women was slim pickin's. In 2002, there were barely any new shows open at the time right after 9/11. In 2006, she was nominated in the leading category for a role that really was featured because there were so many sucky leading roles on Broadway that season [Benanti (Wedding Singer), Jessica Boevers (In My Life), Maria Friedman (Woman in White) and Jenn Gambatese (Tarzan) were the eligible people not nominated]. In 2005, the people not nominated who were eligible were Gambatese (All Shook Up), Kate Reinders (Good Vibrations), Eden Espinosa (Brooklyn) and Melissa Errico (Dracula).

Whether or not you are a fan of Sutton (I am not), you have to admit that her performance in those 3 shows were better than the performances of the people not nominated. I guess the point I'm trying to make is that she was nominated those years because there weren't other people better than her. I'm not saying that there are this year either, but I am saying that if she gets terrible reviews as Reno, she very well might not make the cut (read: Kristin Chenoweth). But I don't think she will automatically get nominated because she's Sutton. The same goes for Donna Murphy (read: Bebe Neuwirth).

Updated On: 12/18/10 at 12:19 AM

Right. I am guessing she WILL be nominated. I was just trying to make the point that in the past, she hasn't been nominated just because. It sounded like theatreguy assumed that if Sutton is eligible in the leading category (why the featured category is different is strange to me) that she will be nominated 10 times out of 10. I agree that she will be nominated this year, but not because she's Sutton. Rather she will be nominated because the short list is... well... short.

^ ????